In part 1 of this series, we concluded that rookies drafted outside of Round 3 of the NFL draft have very low odds of being “usable” in redraft leagues. In the overwhelming majority of cases, they should be avoided on draft day. As a reminder, a usable player is one who scored 160 or more PPR points over the course of their rookie season. Even…...

From 2001 to 2018, 34 wide receivers hit 200 points for the first time. If you think a rate of almost two a year is impressive, consider this: Since 2010, 22 WRs have broken out during their second years, more than any other breakout class has managed during the entire 18-year window. While fantasy owners used to believe in the third-year WR breakout, savvy owners…...

Raise your hand if your fantasy teams have been victimized by Derrick Henry. Now, take a quick glance around the Twitter-verse. Most hands are up. In 2018 in particular, your shares of Henry hit you hard. You probably drafted him with your third-round pick only to fall victim to inconsistent usage that all but killed your fantasy football team. I’m here to state my last…...

Ronald Jones’ rookie season was not good. It’s hard to express just how bad it wa … Oops, no I’ve got it. His rookie season was worse than the final season of Game of Thrones. It was worse than the series finale of Dexter. It was worse than those final 30 minutes of Battlestar Galactica. It was worse than that last scene in Lost …....

Welcome to my NFL Passing Revolution series, where I examine how the NFL’s shift towards efficient pass-heavy offenses has affected the landscape of fantasy football. We’ve now arrived at the final installment of this series; and for my final entry in this epic, I’m going to shift gears a bit. For seven straight articles, I’ve analyzed the NFL and fantasy football with a global lens…....

Welcome to my NFL Passing Revolution series, where I examine how the NFL’s shift towards efficient pass-heavy offenses has affected the landscape of fantasy football. In Part 6, I looked at some holistic trends for the wide receiver position. Ironically, the passing revolution seems to have had a negative overall effect on wide receivers’ efficiency due to the swelling number of receivers deployed across the…...

Derrick Henry’s star went supernova in the 2018 playoffs. Over Weeks 14 and 15, he totaled more than 400 yards and scored six touchdowns. With a solid Week 16 performance, he notched 94 fantasy points in the playoffs, the 13th-best playoff total since the turn of the century, and one of only six 90-plus performances this decade. It comes as no surprise that new offensive…...

Welcome to my NFL Passing Revolution series, where I examine how the NFL’s shift towards efficient pass-heavy offenses has affected the landscape of fantasy football. In Parts 2-4, I covered the running back position in detail. Then, in Part 5, I addressed the tight end position. In each of my preceding articles, I’ve emphasized the importance of targeting elite pass-catching RB1s and elite tight ends…...

Yesterday we looked at players who are undervalued in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts. Today I will examine players you can pick up in the later rounds to supercharge your team. Dede Westbrook Westbrook was Jacksonville’s leading receiver last year. The WR room is basically the same and the Jaguars didn’t take a WR in the draft, which shows they are content with what…...

Welcome to my NFL Passing Revolution series, where I examine how the NFL’s shift towards efficient pass-heavy offenses has affected the landscape of fantasy football. In Parts 2-4, I examined modern archetypes for fantasy RB1s, RB2s and RB3s and highlighted 2019 rookies who fit those paradigms. Now, it’s time to move on from running back and instead focus on the tight end position. Be sure…...

Any experienced fantasy manager can draft the first two to three rounds of your fantasy draft. Obviously some picks are better than others, but the same basic 36 players will be drafted in the first three rounds, in some order. This article will provide you with some great value players in the rounds immediately following those first 36 picks that can swing the pendulum in…...

Things move quickly at the running back position. Values shift in an instant. While elite wide receivers can actually benefit from the presence of other star WRs on the roster, backs need more of the spotlight to themselves in order to run up those dual-threat snap counts. This is what makes the two positions so fundamentally different in fantasy. It’s this tendency for the big…...

Welcome to my NFL Passing Revolution series, where I examine how the NFL’s shift towards efficient pass-heavy offenses has affected the landscape of fantasy football. In Parts 2 and 3, I examined modern archetypes for fantasy RB1s, RB2s and RB3s. That analysis revealed that fantasy RB1s and RB3s share similar rushing vs. receiving splits but obvious differences in overall opportunity and production. RB2s, on the…...

Melvin Gordon has been a fantasy football godsend for the past several seasons. Having reinforced his ceiling with some of the best receiving production among NFL RBs since 2017, assuming health and availability he’s a no-brainer elite investment in fantasy drafts for 2019. But Gordon recently shared that he won’t be showing up for training camp without a new deal. Threatening to miss training camp…...

The Rams hired Sean McVay in 2017, and Los Angeles more than doubled their point output from 224 to 478, a worst-to-first turnaround that set the stage for 2018’s league-wide offensive revival. Meanwhile, Doug Pederson, Andy Reid disciple and second-year head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles, led his team to a 41-33 Super Bowl victory over the Patriots. They were the third-highest scoring team in…...

Welcome to my NFL Passing Revolution series, where I examine how the NFL’s shift towards efficient pass-heavy offenses has affected the landscape of fantasy football. In Part 2 of this series, I investigated how fantasy RB1s have changed over the last 17 years — most notably over the last two. Beginning in 2017, we observed an unprecedented improvement in receiving production that has re-defined the…...

In Part 1 of this series, I investigated the NFL’s passing revolution through the prism of global statistical trends. I noted that last season marked a pivotal uptick in overall efficiency (rather than pass/run ratio), which also substantially lifted running backs’ yards per carry average across the league. I also highlighted how fantasy RB1s have recently made a resurgence in receiving production. In this installment,…...

When using the Zero RB strategy, owners target wide receivers and tight ends in the early rounds. Even if an early running back is drafted, teams using this strategy generally are weaker at the running back position. If a Zero RB team can hit on running backs who have value later on in the draft, they are set up very well to succeed. This year…...

Last Season Was Historic The 2018-19 NFL season may be best-remembered as the dawn of the so-called “passing revolution.” Sure, we’ve witnessed the NFL’s gradual shift towards efficient passing offenses over the last two decades, but last season was on another level. Patrick Mahomes took the league by storm en route to NFL MVP honors. He posted a ludicrous 5,097-50-12 passing line, which ranks eighth…...