Will Fuller was averaging 15.2 PPG in 2018 when he tore his ACL in Week 8. Expected to be close to 100% in Week 1, the young field-stretcher is set to star this season. Dynasty owners and swashbuckling best ball drafters everywhere breathed a huge sigh of relief when Fuller arrived at training camp healthy. “It feels good to be back out there, running routes…...

As we inch closer to the start of the regular NFL season and the injuries continue to mount, it’s become clear that there is one backfield to keep our eyes on. That backfield is Kansas City. Damien Williams is consistently being drafted in the second round. Much to the chagrin of fantasy owners, he’s come down with a hamstring early in training camp that’s kept…...

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a wide receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Every year there are outliers who catch touchdowns at a higher or lower rate than one would expect based on their targets and yards in that season. Perception about a player’s abilitay to score touchdowns — and thus…...

This is the first part in an eight-part series previewing each NFL division. I will predict team’s records, order of finish, and point out fantasy studs, mid-round values, late-round gems, and a breakout player from each division. First up, the NFC East. NFC East Dallas (11-5) Philadelphia (10-6) Washington (6-10) NY Giants (5-11) This division is divided between the have and the have nots. Dallas…...

Rookie wide receivers tend to struggle in redraft. Dave Caban recently showed that even first-round picks are rarely startable in their initial campaigns. The numbers for second-rounders are far worse. We know second-year WRs are the class to target, and rookies don’t break out as frequently as the third-year players either. However, rookies aren’t worthless by any stretch, and the receivers who do emerge go…...

The 2019 Apex Experts draft kicked off its annual festivities on the first day of August. This is one of my favorite events every year, and it’s again stocked with the best minds in the fantasy industry. Last year, I was lucky enough to make the finals where I fell to Denny Carter.((Denny never picks a QB during the Apex draft itself, but he provided…...

Kalen Ballage is probably the easiest play in all of fantasy football. He’s also one of the most difficult, because he violates a key principle for selecting middle-round Zero RB candidates – target good players. It created a fantasy hullabaloo when Ballage took the first training camp snap over not-quite-incumbent Kenyan Drake. Some covering the team hypothesized that the call might have been simply sending…...

Most fantasy analysis is devoted to sorting the order of players likely to have an immediate impact, but every year there are a handful of overlooked deep sleepers who emerge to fill a starting role in redraft. Last year, it was guys like Phillip Lindsay and James Conner at running back. Deep sleepers at WR are a little harder to find, but we did tell you to watch out for Curtis Samuel,…...

We’re rolling along in our deep sleeper series, and by now you know the drill — these are guys who have something in their profile that gives us hope, despite what their depressed ADP is telling us. Something a little different for this one, as we’re getting our first look at this year’s wide receiver Phenom Index numbers, a Jon Moore metric which measures age-adjusted…...

Most fantasy analysis is devoted to sorting the order of players likely to have an immediate impact, but every year there are a handful of overlooked deep sleepers who emerge to fill a starting role in redraft. Last year, it was guys like Phillip Lindsay and James Conner at running back. Deep sleepers at WR are a little harder to find, but we did tell you to watch out for Curtis Samuel,…...

Most fantasy analysis is devoted to sorting the order of players likely to have an immediate impact, but every year there are a handful of overlooked deep sleepers who emerge to fill a starting role in redraft. Last year, it was guys like Phillip Lindsay and James Conner at running back. Deep sleepers at WR are a little harder to find, but we did tell you to watch out for Curtis Samuel,…...

Mecole Hardman and Parris Campbell were cult favorites heading into the 2019 NFL draft. But when they landed in the second round to Kansas City and Indianapolis, the fantasy community truly fell in love. The two speedsters were suddenly set to spend their careers lassoing lasers from Patrick Mahomes and Andrew Luck. For most of the summer they stayed well ahead of Andy Isabella and…...

Most fantasy analysis is devoted to sorting the order of players likely to have an immediate impact, but every year there are a handful of overlooked deep sleepers who emerge to fill a starting role in redraft. Last year, it was guys like Phillip Lindsay and James Conner at running back. Deep sleepers at WR are a little harder to find, but we did tell you to watch out for Curtis Samuel,…...

Zero RB quietly posted a 14% win rate in 2018. Meanwhile, RBs drafted in Rounds 3 and 4 won at absurdly low rates and the position accounted for the seven worst individual-player win rates of anyone drafted in the first four rounds. The simple solution is to just avoid drafting RBs in that area. But what if you don’t want the simple solution? If we…...

Most fantasy analysis is devoted to sorting the order of players likely to have an immediate impact, but every year there are a handful of overlooked deep sleepers who emerge to fill a starting role in redraft. Last year, it was guys like Phillip Lindsay and James Conner at running back. Deep sleepers at WR are a little harder to find, but we did tell you to watch out for Curtis Samuel,…...

Last season, Nick Chubb’s ADP fell consistently throughout draft season as it became clear that Carlos Hyde was going to begin the season as the starter. Chubb wasn’t even the second Cleveland running back selected, as drafters assumed the Browns would continue to deploy their ace receiving back, Duke Johnson. Chubb appeared to get lucky. Cleveland eventually traded Hyde, and Chubb performed well enough to…...

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a wide receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Most analysts just use receiving yards to regress touchdowns, so finding that there is signal with adding targets was novel.((And it was interesting to see that targets are actually negatively correlated with touchdowns, given the same…...