Shawn Siegele

Author of the original Zero RB article and 2013 NFFC Primetime Grand Champion. 11-time main event league winner. 2015, 2017, 2018 titles in MFL10 of Death.

Author Archive

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

The Next James Conner? 5 Veteran Running Backs With Gaudy Peripherals and the Potential to Smash ADP

Shawn Siegele breaks down the key metrics that help you find the next group of league-shattering running backs. When we debuted the Advanced Stats Explorer last summer, I wanted to share some of the cool information, so I wrote 5 Veteran RBs Who Were Much Better Than Advertised in 2020. Three of those backs ended up on the Zero RB Candidates list, and each member…...

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Will Rashaad Penny Earn a Bell Cow Role? Actionable Takeaways From Early July News

Early July is usually a dead period for NFL news, as most free agents have signed, and training camp hasn’t started yet. But a few pieces of recent news have fantasy implications. Darrell Henderson and Kyren Williams Per The Athletic’s Jourdan Rodrique (one of the best beat reporters in the league): My sense is that the Rams’ hope for Williams is that he eventually takes…...

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Defense Can Still Win Championships: Supercharge Your Best Ball Teams with the D/ST Window

Ross Durham examines D/ST draft strategy in FFPC best ball leagues and finds the optimal window for drafting defensive units. Like me, you probably haven’t been paying enough attention to the defense/special teams position in fantasy football. With the growing popularity of defense-less (and kicker-less) formats in best ball and classic leagues, a lot of us just don’t devote many brain bytes to a position…...

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Is Michael Carter Still Draftable? Sorting Through 3 More Small-Gap Backfields

Last time, we parsed through the three small-gap backfields. We know from Jack Miller’s research on the win and hit rates for big or small-gap backs, as well as previous work by Charlie Kleinheksel, that the ADP gap between a team’s RB1 and their RB2 has significant implications for how we should expect them to perform. In all these articles, B1 and B2 running backs refer to…...

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Does the Running Back Dead Zone Still Exist? Comparing Underdog and FFPC

The running back dead zone has entered the public consciousness in a big way. An understanding of how to approach the draft once all the top running backs are off the board and exciting wide receivers are still available has become much more widespread. With this greater understanding comes a shift in ADPs. The Win The Flex tool is uniquely well placed to objectively analyze…...

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Why the Third Receiver Slot Is So Important on Underdog: Lessons from the Win The Flex App

On Underdog, it is no secret that the half-PPR scoring favors running backs more than the wide receivers. And yet, wide receivers go earlier on Underdog than in any other format. It would be tempting to surmise that running backs are dramatically undervalued. In fact, the projections based on the Win The Flex app suggest that running backs will outscore the next available wide receiver…...

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FFPC Superflex Best Ball Tournament: Can You Win With a Zero QB, Hyperfragile Cocktail of Crazy?

Last year RotoViz Overtime hosts and listeners had fantastic seasons in FFPC best ball contests. What happens when they get together for our Superflex Best Ball Extravaganza? This happens. Colm Kelly and I had a chance to draft with the Overtime community last Sunday. It was an absolute blast, and the trends and decisions will help you address some of the difficult choices you’ll face…...

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Has the Second-Year Receiver Advantage Been Squeezed Out of Existence?

RotoViz has always championed drafting young, explosive wide receivers. This is particularly true with regards to second-year players, which we’ve often called the biggest edge in fantasy. This cadre of players sees the biggest jump in targets from one year to the next. In recent years however, the cost of these players has started to rise. But it’s also important to remember that recent classes…...

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2 Deep Sleepers to Target at Wide Receiver in Your 2022 Best Ball Drafts

Meng Song discusses two deep sleepers at wide receiver and explains why they have the weekly upside you need to win your best ball contests. Names like Tim Patrick and DeVante Parker are oft-discussed wide receivers as values in the double-digit rounds, as both players have opportunities to potentially see high target shares in 2022. But let’s dive further and discuss a couple of deep…...

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How to Finish a Hyperfragile Draft Strong

I recently wrote about Hyperfragile drafts in Bestball Mania and how to draft them optimally. It can be an exciting way to draft, but it is usually not implemented very well and the results reflect it. RB3 BEFORE ROUND 5, FIVE OR FEWER RBS Fortunately, the errors are easy to correct and result in a contrarian monster. Doing this research made me extremely excited about…...

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Can Kyle Pitts Pay Off His ADP? Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Football Multiverse

The idea of the multiverse is fascinating to me. You change one small thing in one timeline and it breaks off and affects things down the road in profound ways. In the Marvel Cinematic Universe, that has Earth-shattering, Thanos-snapping implications. In fantasy football, it’s just my fancy way of saying that a range of outcomes exists. My goal for this series is to pick a…...

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Are Underdog Players Drafting Enough Running Backs?

The RotoViz suite of Roster Construction Explorer tools are awesome. Because we have both tournament data and a long history of data, we are able to rigorously test out roster construction ideas for historical success. I’ve written previously about how to use these tools to build unique and utterly dominant Zero RB, Anchor RB, and Hyperfragile teams. When it comes to the Underdog BBM III…...

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The Zero RB Dream Team: 6 Core Elements and 18 Priority Picks for Underdog Tournaments

Shawn Siegele uses the Underdog Roster Construction Explorer to break down a Zero RB dream team. After drafting a variety of Anchor RB and Hyperfragile teams in the early going, the people have spoken. The hunger for Zero RB teams won’t be sated with this draft, but it at least starts the process. I drew the 1.06 and put together one of my favorite Zero…...

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Applying Optimal Bestball Principles to a Hyperfragile Draft

I recently wrote about Hyperfragile drafts in Bestball Mania and how to draft them optimally. It can be an exciting way to draft, but it is usually not implemented very well and the results reflect it. RB3 BEFORE ROUND 5, FIVE OR FEWER RBS Fortunately, the errors are easy to correct and result in a contrarian monster. Doing this research made me extremely excited about…...

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Have We Seen the Best of Kyler Murray? Arizona Cardinals Fantasy Football Multiverse

The idea of the multiverse is fascinating to me. You change one small thing in one timeline and it breaks off and affects things down the road in profound ways. In the Marvel Cinematic Universe, that has Earth-shattering, Thanos-snapping implications. In fantasy football, it’s just my fancy way of saying that a range of outcomes exists. My goal for this series is to pick a…...

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Best Ball Evolution, the Impact of Structural Drafting, and How to Benefit from the Accumulation of Small Edges

Shawn  Siegele uses the Best Ball Win Rate Explorer to break down the all-important middle rounds of the 2022 MFL10 of Death. It’s been a blast to draft against the top minds in fantasy, and I want to thank Pat Thorman for creating and continuing this charity event. As Michael Dubner explained in his epic look at best ball strategy, most of what we want…...

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MFL10 of Death: The Best and Most Controversial Picks – 15 Flag-Plant Selections from Top Experts

Shawn Siegele looks at the best and most controversial picks from Pat Thorman’s MFL10 of Death and explains how his selections fit into an overall strategy. The MFL10 of Death is always my favorite draft to analyze. It’s loaded with the top minds in fantasy football, and it occurs at a moment in the calendar where we’re still operating with partial information on many players…...

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Best Ball Tournament Workshop: Does Draft Speed Matter? Why the Fast Draft Advantage Isn’t Quite What It Seems

Winning a million dollars playing best ball tournaments requires a lot of skill and also a lot of luck. There are many parts of a roster that are completely out of our control, such as our assigned draft pick, what our opponents do, player injuries, and on and on. But before we even draft, there are a few things in our control that affect our…...

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Structural Drafting and Detours for Value in the FFPC Superflex Best Ball Tournament

Shawn Siegele breaks down an FFPC Superflex Best Ball Tournament draft and explores the intersection of structure and value. The FFPC Best Ball Tournament has been one of my favorite formats to draft this offseason, and its popularity suggests a bigger tournament next year. Until then, I love the intimate 4,752-entry field and compelling $10,000 grand prize. I’ll be drafting fairly heavily in this format,…...

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Best Ball Workshop: Can We Rescue a Weird QB Build in the FFPC Superflex Tournament?

Can Shawn Siegele and Ben Gretch finish off their contrarian Superflex Best Ball build in style? Shawn breaks down Rounds 9 through 20 and further explores the strategy that could lead to a tournament championship. In Part 1, we examined the key tactics for building out your Superflex Best Ball roster in the FFPC Tournament. To add a personal flair, I used a recent Stealing…...

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The Next James Conner? 5 Veteran Running Backs With Gaudy Peripherals and the Potential to Smash ADP

Shawn Siegele breaks down the key metrics that help you find the next group of league-shattering running backs. When we debuted the Advanced Stats Explorer last summer, I wanted to share some of the cool information, so I wrote 5 Veteran RBs Who Were Much Better Than Advertised in 2020. Three of those backs ended up on the Zero RB Candidates list, and each member…...

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Will Rashaad Penny Earn a Bell Cow Role? Actionable Takeaways From Early July News

Early July is usually a dead period for NFL news, as most free agents have signed, and training camp hasn’t started yet. But a few pieces of recent news have fantasy implications. Darrell Henderson and Kyren Williams Per The Athletic’s Jourdan Rodrique (one of the best beat reporters in the league): My sense is that the Rams’ hope for Williams is that he eventually takes…...

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Defense Can Still Win Championships: Supercharge Your Best Ball Teams with the D/ST Window

Ross Durham examines D/ST draft strategy in FFPC best ball leagues and finds the optimal window for drafting defensive units. Like me, you probably haven’t been paying enough attention to the defense/special teams position in fantasy football. With the growing popularity of defense-less (and kicker-less) formats in best ball and classic leagues, a lot of us just don’t devote many brain bytes to a position…...

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Is Michael Carter Still Draftable? Sorting Through 3 More Small-Gap Backfields

Last time, we parsed through the three small-gap backfields. We know from Jack Miller’s research on the win and hit rates for big or small-gap backs, as well as previous work by Charlie Kleinheksel, that the ADP gap between a team’s RB1 and their RB2 has significant implications for how we should expect them to perform. In all these articles, B1 and B2 running backs refer to…...

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Does the Running Back Dead Zone Still Exist? Comparing Underdog and FFPC

The running back dead zone has entered the public consciousness in a big way. An understanding of how to approach the draft once all the top running backs are off the board and exciting wide receivers are still available has become much more widespread. With this greater understanding comes a shift in ADPs. The Win The Flex tool is uniquely well placed to objectively analyze…...

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Why the Third Receiver Slot Is So Important on Underdog: Lessons from the Win The Flex App

On Underdog, it is no secret that the half-PPR scoring favors running backs more than the wide receivers. And yet, wide receivers go earlier on Underdog than in any other format. It would be tempting to surmise that running backs are dramatically undervalued. In fact, the projections based on the Win The Flex app suggest that running backs will outscore the next available wide receiver…...

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FFPC Superflex Best Ball Tournament: Can You Win With a Zero QB, Hyperfragile Cocktail of Crazy?

Last year RotoViz Overtime hosts and listeners had fantastic seasons in FFPC best ball contests. What happens when they get together for our Superflex Best Ball Extravaganza? This happens. Colm Kelly and I had a chance to draft with the Overtime community last Sunday. It was an absolute blast, and the trends and decisions will help you address some of the difficult choices you’ll face…...

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Has the Second-Year Receiver Advantage Been Squeezed Out of Existence?

RotoViz has always championed drafting young, explosive wide receivers. This is particularly true with regards to second-year players, which we’ve often called the biggest edge in fantasy. This cadre of players sees the biggest jump in targets from one year to the next. In recent years however, the cost of these players has started to rise. But it’s also important to remember that recent classes…...

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2 Deep Sleepers to Target at Wide Receiver in Your 2022 Best Ball Drafts

Meng Song discusses two deep sleepers at wide receiver and explains why they have the weekly upside you need to win your best ball contests. Names like Tim Patrick and DeVante Parker are oft-discussed wide receivers as values in the double-digit rounds, as both players have opportunities to potentially see high target shares in 2022. But let’s dive further and discuss a couple of deep…...

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How to Finish a Hyperfragile Draft Strong

I recently wrote about Hyperfragile drafts in Bestball Mania and how to draft them optimally. It can be an exciting way to draft, but it is usually not implemented very well and the results reflect it. RB3 BEFORE ROUND 5, FIVE OR FEWER RBS Fortunately, the errors are easy to correct and result in a contrarian monster. Doing this research made me extremely excited about…...

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Can Kyle Pitts Pay Off His ADP? Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Football Multiverse

The idea of the multiverse is fascinating to me. You change one small thing in one timeline and it breaks off and affects things down the road in profound ways. In the Marvel Cinematic Universe, that has Earth-shattering, Thanos-snapping implications. In fantasy football, it’s just my fancy way of saying that a range of outcomes exists. My goal for this series is to pick a…...

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Are Underdog Players Drafting Enough Running Backs?

The RotoViz suite of Roster Construction Explorer tools are awesome. Because we have both tournament data and a long history of data, we are able to rigorously test out roster construction ideas for historical success. I’ve written previously about how to use these tools to build unique and utterly dominant Zero RB, Anchor RB, and Hyperfragile teams. When it comes to the Underdog BBM III…...

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The Zero RB Dream Team: 6 Core Elements and 18 Priority Picks for Underdog Tournaments

Shawn Siegele uses the Underdog Roster Construction Explorer to break down a Zero RB dream team. After drafting a variety of Anchor RB and Hyperfragile teams in the early going, the people have spoken. The hunger for Zero RB teams won’t be sated with this draft, but it at least starts the process. I drew the 1.06 and put together one of my favorite Zero…...

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Applying Optimal Bestball Principles to a Hyperfragile Draft

I recently wrote about Hyperfragile drafts in Bestball Mania and how to draft them optimally. It can be an exciting way to draft, but it is usually not implemented very well and the results reflect it. RB3 BEFORE ROUND 5, FIVE OR FEWER RBS Fortunately, the errors are easy to correct and result in a contrarian monster. Doing this research made me extremely excited about…...

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Have We Seen the Best of Kyler Murray? Arizona Cardinals Fantasy Football Multiverse

The idea of the multiverse is fascinating to me. You change one small thing in one timeline and it breaks off and affects things down the road in profound ways. In the Marvel Cinematic Universe, that has Earth-shattering, Thanos-snapping implications. In fantasy football, it’s just my fancy way of saying that a range of outcomes exists. My goal for this series is to pick a…...

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Best Ball Evolution, the Impact of Structural Drafting, and How to Benefit from the Accumulation of Small Edges

Shawn  Siegele uses the Best Ball Win Rate Explorer to break down the all-important middle rounds of the 2022 MFL10 of Death. It’s been a blast to draft against the top minds in fantasy, and I want to thank Pat Thorman for creating and continuing this charity event. As Michael Dubner explained in his epic look at best ball strategy, most of what we want…...

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MFL10 of Death: The Best and Most Controversial Picks – 15 Flag-Plant Selections from Top Experts

Shawn Siegele looks at the best and most controversial picks from Pat Thorman’s MFL10 of Death and explains how his selections fit into an overall strategy. The MFL10 of Death is always my favorite draft to analyze. It’s loaded with the top minds in fantasy football, and it occurs at a moment in the calendar where we’re still operating with partial information on many players…...

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Best Ball Tournament Workshop: Does Draft Speed Matter? Why the Fast Draft Advantage Isn’t Quite What It Seems

Winning a million dollars playing best ball tournaments requires a lot of skill and also a lot of luck. There are many parts of a roster that are completely out of our control, such as our assigned draft pick, what our opponents do, player injuries, and on and on. But before we even draft, there are a few things in our control that affect our…...

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Structural Drafting and Detours for Value in the FFPC Superflex Best Ball Tournament

Shawn Siegele breaks down an FFPC Superflex Best Ball Tournament draft and explores the intersection of structure and value. The FFPC Best Ball Tournament has been one of my favorite formats to draft this offseason, and its popularity suggests a bigger tournament next year. Until then, I love the intimate 4,752-entry field and compelling $10,000 grand prize. I’ll be drafting fairly heavily in this format,…...

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Best Ball Workshop: Can We Rescue a Weird QB Build in the FFPC Superflex Tournament?

Can Shawn Siegele and Ben Gretch finish off their contrarian Superflex Best Ball build in style? Shawn breaks down Rounds 9 through 20 and further explores the strategy that could lead to a tournament championship. In Part 1, we examined the key tactics for building out your Superflex Best Ball roster in the FFPC Tournament. To add a personal flair, I used a recent Stealing…...

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The Next James Conner? 5 Veteran Running Backs With Gaudy Peripherals and the Potential to Smash ADP

Shawn Siegele breaks down the key metrics that help you find the next group of league-shattering running backs. When we debuted the Advanced Stats Explorer last summer, I wanted to share some of the cool information, so I wrote 5 Veteran RBs Who Were Much Better Than Advertised in 2020. Three of those backs ended up on the Zero RB Candidates list, and each member…...

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Will Rashaad Penny Earn a Bell Cow Role? Actionable Takeaways From Early July News

Early July is usually a dead period for NFL news, as most free agents have signed, and training camp hasn’t started yet. But a few pieces of recent news have fantasy implications. Darrell Henderson and Kyren Williams Per The Athletic’s Jourdan Rodrique (one of the best beat reporters in the league): My sense is that the Rams’ hope for Williams is that he eventually takes…...

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Defense Can Still Win Championships: Supercharge Your Best Ball Teams with the D/ST Window

Ross Durham examines D/ST draft strategy in FFPC best ball leagues and finds the optimal window for drafting defensive units. Like me, you probably haven’t been paying enough attention to the defense/special teams position in fantasy football. With the growing popularity of defense-less (and kicker-less) formats in best ball and classic leagues, a lot of us just don’t devote many brain bytes to a position…...

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Is Michael Carter Still Draftable? Sorting Through 3 More Small-Gap Backfields

Last time, we parsed through the three small-gap backfields. We know from Jack Miller’s research on the win and hit rates for big or small-gap backs, as well as previous work by Charlie Kleinheksel, that the ADP gap between a team’s RB1 and their RB2 has significant implications for how we should expect them to perform. In all these articles, B1 and B2 running backs refer to…...

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Does the Running Back Dead Zone Still Exist? Comparing Underdog and FFPC

The running back dead zone has entered the public consciousness in a big way. An understanding of how to approach the draft once all the top running backs are off the board and exciting wide receivers are still available has become much more widespread. With this greater understanding comes a shift in ADPs. The Win The Flex tool is uniquely well placed to objectively analyze…...

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Why the Third Receiver Slot Is So Important on Underdog: Lessons from the Win The Flex App

On Underdog, it is no secret that the half-PPR scoring favors running backs more than the wide receivers. And yet, wide receivers go earlier on Underdog than in any other format. It would be tempting to surmise that running backs are dramatically undervalued. In fact, the projections based on the Win The Flex app suggest that running backs will outscore the next available wide receiver…...

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FFPC Superflex Best Ball Tournament: Can You Win With a Zero QB, Hyperfragile Cocktail of Crazy?

Last year RotoViz Overtime hosts and listeners had fantastic seasons in FFPC best ball contests. What happens when they get together for our Superflex Best Ball Extravaganza? This happens. Colm Kelly and I had a chance to draft with the Overtime community last Sunday. It was an absolute blast, and the trends and decisions will help you address some of the difficult choices you’ll face…...

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Has the Second-Year Receiver Advantage Been Squeezed Out of Existence?

RotoViz has always championed drafting young, explosive wide receivers. This is particularly true with regards to second-year players, which we’ve often called the biggest edge in fantasy. This cadre of players sees the biggest jump in targets from one year to the next. In recent years however, the cost of these players has started to rise. But it’s also important to remember that recent classes…...

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2 Deep Sleepers to Target at Wide Receiver in Your 2022 Best Ball Drafts

Meng Song discusses two deep sleepers at wide receiver and explains why they have the weekly upside you need to win your best ball contests. Names like Tim Patrick and DeVante Parker are oft-discussed wide receivers as values in the double-digit rounds, as both players have opportunities to potentially see high target shares in 2022. But let’s dive further and discuss a couple of deep…...

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How to Finish a Hyperfragile Draft Strong

I recently wrote about Hyperfragile drafts in Bestball Mania and how to draft them optimally. It can be an exciting way to draft, but it is usually not implemented very well and the results reflect it. RB3 BEFORE ROUND 5, FIVE OR FEWER RBS Fortunately, the errors are easy to correct and result in a contrarian monster. Doing this research made me extremely excited about…...

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Can Kyle Pitts Pay Off His ADP? Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Football Multiverse

The idea of the multiverse is fascinating to me. You change one small thing in one timeline and it breaks off and affects things down the road in profound ways. In the Marvel Cinematic Universe, that has Earth-shattering, Thanos-snapping implications. In fantasy football, it’s just my fancy way of saying that a range of outcomes exists. My goal for this series is to pick a…...

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Are Underdog Players Drafting Enough Running Backs?

The RotoViz suite of Roster Construction Explorer tools are awesome. Because we have both tournament data and a long history of data, we are able to rigorously test out roster construction ideas for historical success. I’ve written previously about how to use these tools to build unique and utterly dominant Zero RB, Anchor RB, and Hyperfragile teams. When it comes to the Underdog BBM III…...

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The Zero RB Dream Team: 6 Core Elements and 18 Priority Picks for Underdog Tournaments

Shawn Siegele uses the Underdog Roster Construction Explorer to break down a Zero RB dream team. After drafting a variety of Anchor RB and Hyperfragile teams in the early going, the people have spoken. The hunger for Zero RB teams won’t be sated with this draft, but it at least starts the process. I drew the 1.06 and put together one of my favorite Zero…...

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Applying Optimal Bestball Principles to a Hyperfragile Draft

I recently wrote about Hyperfragile drafts in Bestball Mania and how to draft them optimally. It can be an exciting way to draft, but it is usually not implemented very well and the results reflect it. RB3 BEFORE ROUND 5, FIVE OR FEWER RBS Fortunately, the errors are easy to correct and result in a contrarian monster. Doing this research made me extremely excited about…...

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Have We Seen the Best of Kyler Murray? Arizona Cardinals Fantasy Football Multiverse

The idea of the multiverse is fascinating to me. You change one small thing in one timeline and it breaks off and affects things down the road in profound ways. In the Marvel Cinematic Universe, that has Earth-shattering, Thanos-snapping implications. In fantasy football, it’s just my fancy way of saying that a range of outcomes exists. My goal for this series is to pick a…...

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Best Ball Evolution, the Impact of Structural Drafting, and How to Benefit from the Accumulation of Small Edges

Shawn  Siegele uses the Best Ball Win Rate Explorer to break down the all-important middle rounds of the 2022 MFL10 of Death. It’s been a blast to draft against the top minds in fantasy, and I want to thank Pat Thorman for creating and continuing this charity event. As Michael Dubner explained in his epic look at best ball strategy, most of what we want…...

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MFL10 of Death: The Best and Most Controversial Picks – 15 Flag-Plant Selections from Top Experts

Shawn Siegele looks at the best and most controversial picks from Pat Thorman’s MFL10 of Death and explains how his selections fit into an overall strategy. The MFL10 of Death is always my favorite draft to analyze. It’s loaded with the top minds in fantasy football, and it occurs at a moment in the calendar where we’re still operating with partial information on many players…...

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Best Ball Tournament Workshop: Does Draft Speed Matter? Why the Fast Draft Advantage Isn’t Quite What It Seems

Winning a million dollars playing best ball tournaments requires a lot of skill and also a lot of luck. There are many parts of a roster that are completely out of our control, such as our assigned draft pick, what our opponents do, player injuries, and on and on. But before we even draft, there are a few things in our control that affect our…...

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Structural Drafting and Detours for Value in the FFPC Superflex Best Ball Tournament

Shawn Siegele breaks down an FFPC Superflex Best Ball Tournament draft and explores the intersection of structure and value. The FFPC Best Ball Tournament has been one of my favorite formats to draft this offseason, and its popularity suggests a bigger tournament next year. Until then, I love the intimate 4,752-entry field and compelling $10,000 grand prize. I’ll be drafting fairly heavily in this format,…...

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Best Ball Workshop: Can We Rescue a Weird QB Build in the FFPC Superflex Tournament?

Can Shawn Siegele and Ben Gretch finish off their contrarian Superflex Best Ball build in style? Shawn breaks down Rounds 9 through 20 and further explores the strategy that could lead to a tournament championship. In Part 1, we examined the key tactics for building out your Superflex Best Ball roster in the FFPC Tournament. To add a personal flair, I used a recent Stealing…...

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