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Shawn Siegele explores five key components he uses to build out the Zero RB draft board, and then breaks down 61 players using those criteria. As we move toward the 2024 Zero RB Candidates Countdown, I’ve been working on a series of articles that help place RB outcomes in the context of upside scenarios and downside risks. We Won’t Get Another Kyren Williams, But This…...
The running back position is as volatile as ever, and seemingly every year we see players at the position come out of nowhere to earn meaningful roles at all points of the season. What is perhaps flying under the radar is that all four teams in the AFC West have questions relating to the amount of depth, talent, or both in their RB depth charts…....
Dave Caban shares his baseline 2024 projection for the Denver Broncos while also considering the impacts of increases/decreases to market shares and team play volume. Every offseason, I undertake the process of creating projections for every team. In previous years, this involved developing a projection that I believed would represent the average performance of all relevant players if a given season were played out thousands…...
Shawn Siegele investigates Kyren Williams’ league-crushing campaign to find out what it can tell us about fantasy running back drafting. Can two dark horse candidates follow in his footsteps? Every so often we get a lightning-strike player who completely turns the fantasy season on its head. In 2023 that was Kyren Williams. Searching for players like Williams can present problems. We don’t expect to get…...
Year 2 remains the key year for wide receiver breakouts, but it’s not as simple as just drafting every Year 2 WR. As we noted previously, a player like Jonathan Mingo, who ran 511 routes in 2023, doesn’t have much room to increase his opportunity. The prospects for him to improve his efficiency are not hopeful either. And there may be other reasons we prefer…...
As we race toward peak fantasy football draft season, we’re seeing the annual flurry of articles exploring running back and wide receiver strategies, correlations, tendencies, and more. These two positions dominate fantasy football discourse for good reason. They will be the largest sources of your teams’ points. All of that research supports a relatively strong understanding of how to draft those positions, particularly in best…...
In 2021, DeVonta Smith, then a rookie, was going off the board in Round 8 of FFPC Best Ball drafts. At the time it might have seemed early, but it was about 30 picks later than fellow rookie Ja’Marr Chase. In any case, Smith ended up finishing his rookie year with nearly 180 PPR points, including about 13 points over expectation — a solid finish…...
Shawn Siegele helps you find the next Alvin Kamara or Tony Pollard, a player currently going for peanuts in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Alvin Kamara and Tony Pollard possess a lot of similarities even though their careers have taken different trajectories. Their paths illustrate two of the possible outcomes for players with their prospect profile: Kamara, an extreme ceiling outcome and Pollard, a well-above-average outcome…....
Expected points (EP) correlate better to future fantasy success than fantasy points over expected (FPOE). FPOE is tied to big plays and TDs meaning it is also tied to missed tackles and blown assignments; in turn, it is generally more volatile. Some rightly source a degree of potential upcoming regression by comparing FPOE to EP; a massive disparity between them may signal that someone has…...
Bjorn Yang-Vaernet analyzes the current running back and wide receiver environment and explores why an early RB draft strategy can take advantage of these trends When I first started playing DFS about eight years ago, I’d listen to podcast hosts reminisce about how the tournaments were much easier back in the day when the entrants hadn’t figured out the optimal strategies. I’d often tell myself…...
Shawn Siegele explains why the scariest RB Dead Zone profile is priced above the dead zone and threatens to torpedo your roster like Dalvin Cook in 2022 or Austin Ekeler in 2023. My most notorious player-related article came right at the beginning. In June 2013 I argued that Adrian Peterson was not worth a top-five pick. This was six months after he came within 9 yards…...
Last time we looked at small gap running backs and identified some undervalued veterans and young backs based on their ADP. Today we’ll cover two big gap backfields, including a veteran joining a new high-powered offense and a breakout running back valued similarly to last season. The idea of small gap and big gap RBs comes from Jack Miller’s research on the win and hit rates…...
Dave Caban shares his baseline 2024 projection for the Dallas Cowboys while also considering the impacts of increases/decreases to market shares and team play volume. Every offseason, I undertake the process of creating projections for every team. In previous years, this involved developing a projection that I believed would represent the average performance of all relevant players if a given season were played out thousands…...
After his offseason antics, Theo Johnson became a name to monitor among NFL draftniks and dynasty managers. His apparent lack of college production, allied to a fascinating athletic profile, made his NFL landing spot a point of interest. But what is the NFL getting in Johnson, and should fantasy managers be paying closer attention? Who is This Guy Anyway? Johnson does not, it must be…...
Dave Caban shares his baseline 2024 projection for the Cleveland Browns while also considering the impacts of increases/decreases to market shares and team play volume. Every offseason, I undertake the process of creating projections for every team. In previous years, this involved developing a projection that I believed would represent the average performance of all relevant players if a given season were played out thousands…...
Dave Caban shares his baseline 2024 projection for the Cincinnati Bengals while also considering the impacts of increases/decreases to market shares and team play volume. Every offseason, I undertake the process of creating projections for every team. In previous years, this involved developing a projection that I believed would represent the average performance of all relevant players if a given season were played out thousands…...
Dave Caban shares his baseline 2024 projection for the Chicago Bears while also considering the impacts of increases/decreases to market shares and team play volume. Every offseason, I undertake the process of creating projections for every team. In previous years, this involved developing a projection that I believed would represent the average performance of all relevant players if a given season were played out thousands…...
After the Dolphins’ RBs broke fantasy football in 2023, Shawn Siegele profiles the running game poised to deliver similar results in 2024. De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert both found their way onto last year’s Zero RB Candidates Countdown. The two Miami stars were so good that you had great success drafting them individually . . . or even together. And despite a dramatic shift in Achane’s…...
Dave Caban shares his baseline 2024 projection for the Carolina Panthers while also considering the impacts of increases/decreases to market shares and team play volume. Every offseason, I undertake the process of creating projections for every team. In previous years, this involved developing a projection that I believed would represent the average performance of all relevant players if a given season were played out thousands…...
I make it my business to limit how often I disagree with my colleagues here at RotoViz. These guys are some smart cookies, especially in their player breakdowns. But on at least one player, the great Kevin Szafraniec and I see things slightly differently. That player is rookie tight end Brock Bowers. Writing last month, Kevin opined: Even as part of a lackluster Raiders offense,…...
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