Dave Caban shares his baseline 2024 projection for the Los Angeles Rams while also considering the impacts of increases/decreases to market shares and team play volume. Every offseason, I undertake the process of creating projections for every team. In previous years, this involved developing a projection that I believed would represent the average performance of all relevant players if a given season were played out…...

Last time, we looked at small gap running backs on two teams with a dominant veteran and potential breakouts to identify undervalued players based on their ADP. Today we’ll cover two more small gap running backs, including a veteran and a younger option. The idea of small gap and big gap RBs comes from Jack Miller’s research on the win and hit rates for big or small gap backs,…...

In my last article I highlighted one of ESPN Analytics Receiver Tracking Metrics: YAC Score. Deebo Samuel has been among the best in the league at YAC Score since his rookie season. And at least one Year 2 breakout candidate looks like he might be on a similar trajectory. But YAC Score isn’t the only metric ESPN tracks. In fact, one could say it’s not…...

Shawn Siegele explains why Josh Jacobs is a 2024 fantasy football trap play and helps you find his doppelganger at a multi-round discount. In 2022 Josh Jacobs was an absolute world burner from the Dead Zone, scoring 330 points and finishing as the RB3. Unfortunately, he returned to his previous levels of performance in 2023, missed a few games with injury, and left fantasy managers…...

Shawn Siegele looks at the evidence for 2024’s biggest running back value and wonders whether we’re getting LeSean McCoy circa 2016 all over again.  LeSean McCoy’s 2016 season occurred at the intersection of trends that reverberate forward to the present. We were coming off the 2015 RB Apocalypse, and ADP moved heavily in favor of WRs. A short-lived RB Golden Age was about to start…....

Dave Caban shares his baseline 2024 projection for the Jacksonville Jaguars while also considering the impacts of increases/decreases to market shares and team play volume. Every offseason, I undertake the process of creating projections for every team. In previous years, this involved developing a projection that I believed would represent the average performance of all relevant players if a given season were played out thousands…...

Early this spring, I ran correlations on all the stats from the RotoViz Screener and many key advanced stats from the other RotoViz tools. I dated them back to 2015, using the entire field for all counting stats and minimums for stats based on averages and percentages, and I correlated them to the following year’s PPR (PPR.N1). This is a great exercise to understand better…...

Dave Caban shares his baseline 2024 projection for the Indianapolis Colts while also considering the impacts of increases/decreases to market shares and team play volume. Every offseason, I undertake the process of creating projections for every team. In previous years, this involved developing a projection that I believed would represent the average performance of all relevant players if a given season were played out thousands…...

Blair Andrews’ Wide Receiver Breakout Series culminates in a close look at the players most likely to provide an outsized return in 2024. I’ve spent the last couple of weeks diving deep into the dynamics of WR breakouts and secondary breakouts. Be sure to check out those articles if you missed any: These Second-Year WRs Are Going to Crush Expectations and Win Fantasy Titles It’s…...

Shawn Siegele breaks down his favorite 2024 play and explains why he’s willing to be wrong . . . again. I’ve been working on this piece for quite a while, and I’m feeling some gratitude that early practice reports appear to be pointing in the right direction. Of course, 97.6% of NFL players are enjoying good camps at this point. It’s a great time to…...

Fantasy football is about creating more WR firepower than your opponents. You can’t do it without numbers, but you can’t win tournaments with numbers if you don’t select the right guys. Nothing provides more fantasy upside than hitting on undervalued WRs.  That’s been the focus of my WR Breakout Series, a research project that hits this topic from a variety of important angles. The importance…...

Dave Caban shares his baseline 2024 projection for the Houston Texans while also considering the impacts of increases/decreases to market shares and team play volume. Every offseason, I undertake the process of creating projections for every team. In previous years, this involved developing a projection that I believed would represent the average performance of all relevant players if a given season were played out thousands…...