We’re more of the love, blood, and rhetoric school. Well, we can do you blood and love without the rhetoric, and we can do you blood and rhetoric without the love, and we can do you all three concurrent or consecutive. But we can’t give you love and rhetoric without the blood. Blood is compulsory. – Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead As everyone knows, and…...

We’re entering an interesting period in fantasy football. Last week I participated in the PFF Online Championship’s promotional “Beat Shawn Siegele” league. It drafted a day after the PFF Celeb league featured participants like Cris Collinsworth, Nate Burleson,[1]Burleson started WRx4, which is what any self-respecting WR should do. and Nick Lachey. In the celebrity draft, the first six selections were running backs. In the league…...

In Part 1 I examined the likelihood that we would see rookie wide receivers make an impact in 2015. Suffice it to say, this year’s class looks to be both over and undervalued for redraft. As I compare players from this year’s class to last year’s class, keep in mind that a single comp can be misleading. It creates a sense that what happened last…...

The most famous RotoViz article on rookies and redraft was Coleman Kelly’s 2013 look at Rookie Derangement Syndrome. That piece focused on Alshon Jeffery versus DeAndre Hopkins. Jeffery went on to break out and win leagues for almost all of his owners. Hopkins had a very solid season as the No. 2 in Houston but wasn’t a fantasy force. Fast forward a season, and we’re…...

What strategy should I use in shallow standard leagues? Can you use Zero RB in standard? These are the two questions I see most frequently on our message boards. As the fantasy industry moves toward deeper PPR formats, these types of leagues can get short shrift. This is unfortunate since standard is still the format for a huge number of fantasy players, and also because…...

There’s no question that staying healthy is a key to fantasy success, and that timely free agent pickups can occasionally be worth as much or more than a first round pick. But consistent fantasy champions have one characteristic in common. They dominate their leaguemates in Rounds 6 through 10. To win these all-important stanzas, you must have the courage to take swings at Breakout RBs…...

Whenever I write a piece like this, I always stipulate that I’m wrong a lot. I usually try to spin it that there is even a value to being wrong, if you’re wrong in the right ways.((I think if you constantly buy high vol players and sell low vol players, you’ll end up with a tremendous winning percentage. But there are going to be plenty…...

The No. 1 question about Zero RB is a simple one. Where do you find running backs? The NFL Draft. Rookies tend to be overvalued in fantasy, but inefficiencies in the draft process tend to balance that equation. Breakout RBs. I examined my process for finding breakout runners in Zero RB, Breakout Runners, and Having More Fun Drafting. In comparing my previous Zero RB breakout…...

A couple of years ago, Bryan Fontaine wrote an article that achieved a certain notoriety.[1]And I mean that mostly in terms of the word’s popular culture connotation with just a little bit of it’s actual definition mixed in. It was a great piece that looked at whether Sam Bradford could throw 50 touchdowns in 2013. I disagreed at the time and suggested Jared Cook and Bradford…...

In order to find the Top 5 running backs for 2015, I wanted to take advantage of the two main RotoViz apps used in projecting players. The Similarity Score app provides insight into the type of seasons we can expect from RBs of the same age, size, and production profile. This can be a very helpful check against narrative as our intuition is often deeply…...

In The 8 Breakout WRs You Must Own in 2015, I looked at the pool of up-and-coming receivers from which this year’s league-winners will likely be drawn. In that article I also explain why Dominator Rating, Age, Freak Score, Vertical Leap, Rookie Relative Yards Per Attempt, and Rookie Fantasy Points are the key components to predicting a breakout. Last year my Breakout WRs didn’t all…...

No. That’s a pretty simple answer, but it may tell us something about the two players that the question even occurred to me (or anyone). Taylor’s name popped in my memory after seeing a Rotoworld blurb that referenced an article on the Broncos official site. From Rotoworld: Broncos UDFA WR Jordan Taylor reportedly made a “massive impression” during Organized Team Activities. 6-foot-4 and 209 pounds with 4.52 wheels,…...

Breakout WRs are frequently the league-winning players in fantasy football since they’re an important part of both a Zero RB and a RB-RB approach. In 2013 RotoViz helped pick Josh Gordon and Alshon Jeffery, and that led to some pretty crazy results. The big winner in 2014 was DeAndre Hopkins. While 2015 doesn’t have a no-brainer selection in terms of both profile and price, the…...

A year ago, I wrote an ill-fated Banana Stand article half-seriously projecting a Tom Brady 2007 style breakout for Alex Smith. I should probably be embarrassed by that piece, but admitting you like Alex Smith is a little like advertising your bad dynasty trades. I’d rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong ones, as the former should lead to much…...

I’ve been using the various RotoViz apps to research RBs as I prepare for my first serious drafts of 2015. One of the biggest surprises is the way in which our Projection Machine rankings are down on Eddie Lacy. Frequent readers will know that I was not a big fan of Lacy heading into the 2013 Draft. I was wrong. Being responsive to new information…...

After several years in RB purgatory, Doug Martin seems on the verge of bouncing back for the 2015 season. Justin Bailey has been doing a great job of keeping us updated on relevant news around the NFL. One of his recent blurbs discussed a possible renaissance…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

We began with the candidates ranked No. 15 through No. 11. In that article I presented an evidence-based methodology for finding RB gems in the middle and late rounds. We then continued our countdown with No. 10 through No. 6 and found three rookies with a chance to pay immediate dividends. As we finish today with the final five, we’ll end up with three teams…...

I like to build my draft board taking into account a variety of evidence-based approaches. In trying to determine picks at the very top of the draft, this means making sure as much evidence as possible points in the same direction. For this study, I wanted to use the RotoViz apps to discover which receivers had the highest upside. As a simple means of identifying…...

We began with the Zero RB candidates ranked 11 to 15. If you’re familiar with the methodology, skip the intro. At this point many fantasy players are familiar with Zero RB, but avoiding those early round land mines is meaningless without a method for otherwise filling the position. In last April’s Zero RB, Breakout Stars, and Having More Fun Drafting, I explained how to use an evidence-based approach…...

At this point many fantasy players are familiar with Zero RB, but avoiding those early round land mines is meaningless without a method for otherwise filling the position. In last April’s Zero RB, Breakout Stars, and Having More Fun Drafting, I explained how to use an evidence-based approach to consistently land late round starters at the running back position. A few of the key components: Target rookies. Target…...