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A team’s pass rate is one of the most important variables in deciding how many fantasy points each player will score. The first order impact is on aggregate rushing attempt and target volume, but it’s also a huge determinant in the overall production of an offense. Pass attempts are more efficient than rush attempts, earning more yards (7.1 versus 4.3) and scoring more touchdowns (4.4%…...
Second-year wide receivers have long been one of the cornerstones of winning in fantasy football. However, recent ADPs have made it more challenging to draft these breakouts, particularly on Underdog. This means that we need to pay particular attention when these players carry discounts. Rondale Moore goes at the end of the 10th round on Underdog and the 12th on FFPC. That he plays with Kyler Murray…...
The quarterback position has seen some of the biggest strategic shifts. QBs score easily the most points, so in earlier years, the top quarterbacks went incredibly early. In 2015, two quarterbacks were being drafted earlier than Josh Allen’s current ADP. 2015 QB ADPs, Fanball Yet this ADP was woefully inefficient. Cam Newton entering his fifth season at the peak of his powers should not have…...
The running back dead zone has entered the public consciousness in a big way. An understanding of how to approach the draft once all the top running backs are off the board and exciting wide receivers are still available has become much more widespread. With this greater understanding comes a shift in ADPs. The Win The Flex tool is uniquely well placed to objectively analyze…...
On Underdog, it is no secret that the half-PPR scoring favors running backs more than the wide receivers. And yet, wide receivers go earlier on Underdog than in any other format. It would be tempting to surmise that running backs are dramatically undervalued. In fact, the projections based on the Win The Flex app suggest that running backs will outscore the next available wide receiver…...
RotoViz has always championed drafting young, explosive wide receivers. This is particularly true with regards to second-year players, which we’ve often called the biggest edge in fantasy. This cadre of players sees the biggest jump in targets from one year to the next. In recent years however, the cost of these players has started to rise. But it’s also important to remember that recent classes…...
I recently wrote about Hyperfragile drafts in Bestball Mania and how to draft them optimally. It can be an exciting way to draft, but it is usually not implemented very well and the results reflect it. RB3 BEFORE ROUND 5, FIVE OR FEWER RBS Fortunately, the errors are easy to correct and result in a contrarian monster. Doing this research made me extremely excited about…...
The RotoViz suite of Roster Construction Explorer tools are awesome. Because we have both tournament data and a long history of data, we are able to rigorously test out roster construction ideas for historical success. I’ve written previously about how to use these tools to build unique and utterly dominant Zero RB, Anchor RB, and Hyperfragile teams. When it comes to the Underdog BBM III…...
I recently wrote about Hyperfragile drafts in Bestball Mania and how to draft them optimally. It can be an exciting way to draft, but it is usually not implemented very well and the results reflect it. RB3 BEFORE ROUND 5, FIVE OR FEWER RBS Fortunately, the errors are easy to correct and result in a contrarian monster. Doing this research made me extremely excited about…...
Best Ball Mania III is a 451,600-entry tournament with a 470-team Week 17 final. Because of this, finding ways to build high-upside teams that are meaningfully different from the field is of the utmost importance. Accounting for the fact that a large percentage of the prize pool is dedicated to the top few places (38% is for the top-five finishers) is a core facet of…...
Best Ball Mania III is a 451,600-entry tournament with a 470-team Week 17 final. Because of this, finding ways to build high-upside teams that are meaningfully different from the field is of the utmost importance. Accounting for the fact that a large percentage of the prize pool is dedicated to the top few places (38% is for the top-five finishers) is a core facet of…...
Best Ball Mania III is a 451,600-entry tournament with a 470-team Week 17 final. Because of this, finding ways to build high-upside teams that are meaningfully different from the field is of the utmost importance. Accounting for the fact that a large percentage of the prize pool is dedicated to the top few places (38% is for the top-five finishers) is a core facet of…...
Just one quarterback was taken in the first round of the 2022 draft, which is the first time that’s happened since 2013. After writing The Rookie Quarterbacks Who Could Dominate 2022 Best Ball Leagues, it was obviously disappointing news for me. However, I do think there is some nuance to the picture and I will still be excited to the draft rookie QBs this year,…...
The NFL has followed up the wildest offseason of our time with the craziest first round we’ve ever seen. Six wide receivers went in the opening stanza and even that was overshadowed by multiple NFL teams transforming their depth charts with trades involving high profile wide receivers. Today I’m looking at the WR news that changed the best-ball tournament landscape. For all of our player…...
Christian Watson exploded into the drafting public consciousness after drawing significant praise from scouts at the Senior Bowl and then following up with a great combine performance. In the space of a few weeks he went from mostly undrafted in FFPC Best Ball to a 12th-14th round pick. At 6 feet 4 inches and 208 pounds, Watson ran a 4.36 in the forty. At…...
The 2022 rookie quarterback class is widely regarded as one of the weakest in recent memory. Each player comes with notable red flags and their current Underdog ADPs reflect this. Malik Willis is the earliest of the crop at QB28 in the Superflex, while Kenny Pickett, Matt Corral, Desmond Ridder, and Sam Howell all go QB33, QB36, QB37, and QB40 respectively. The Underdog single quarterback…...
The Patriots receiver corps has been lacking in recent years. In an attempt to bolster it, they’ve traded a 2023 third-round pick in return for DeVante Parker and a 2022 fifth. This makes sense for the Dolphins too after a blockbuster trade for Tyreek Hill gives them some major upside but meant fewer opportunities for Parker. But how much of an upgrade is this for…...
The breakup of Davante Adams and the Aaron Rodgers-led Green Bay Packers is a seismic shift in the fantasy football landscape with significant reverberations for the outlooks of both the Packers and the Raiders. Michael Hitchcock did a great job teasing out how the move impacts Adams’ value and the pieces around him. In this article, I’ll be talking about how things might shakeout for the Packers…....
In what has been an absolutely wild offseason, the Dolphins kept the party going by trading a bevy of picks in return for Tyreek Hill. Shawn Siegele examined how the Chiefs’ offense might operate going forward, and I get to tackle the fun side with Hill. For real life football, this is a questionable use of draft capital and salary by Miami. Hill is 28…...
Deshaun Watson is accused of sexually assaulting 22 women. Many of the details are disgusting. It feels odd to be writing about him purely through the lens of fantasy football in the face of such allegations. However, we are playing a game of numbers based on NFL outcomes with money on the line. Therefore a thorough understanding of how he impacts the fantasy landscape is…...
A team’s pass rate is one of the most important variables in deciding how many fantasy points each player will score. The first order impact is on aggregate rushing attempt and target volume, but it’s also a huge determinant in the overall production of an offense. Pass attempts are more efficient than rush attempts, earning more yards (7.1 versus 4.3) and scoring more touchdowns (4.4%…...
Second-year wide receivers have long been one of the cornerstones of winning in fantasy football. However, recent ADPs have made it more challenging to draft these breakouts, particularly on Underdog. This means that we need to pay particular attention when these players carry discounts. Rondale Moore goes at the end of the 10th round on Underdog and the 12th on FFPC. That he plays with Kyler Murray…...
The quarterback position has seen some of the biggest strategic shifts. QBs score easily the most points, so in earlier years, the top quarterbacks went incredibly early. In 2015, two quarterbacks were being drafted earlier than Josh Allen’s current ADP. 2015 QB ADPs, Fanball Yet this ADP was woefully inefficient. Cam Newton entering his fifth season at the peak of his powers should not have…...
The running back dead zone has entered the public consciousness in a big way. An understanding of how to approach the draft once all the top running backs are off the board and exciting wide receivers are still available has become much more widespread. With this greater understanding comes a shift in ADPs. The Win The Flex tool is uniquely well placed to objectively analyze…...
On Underdog, it is no secret that the half-PPR scoring favors running backs more than the wide receivers. And yet, wide receivers go earlier on Underdog than in any other format. It would be tempting to surmise that running backs are dramatically undervalued. In fact, the projections based on the Win The Flex app suggest that running backs will outscore the next available wide receiver…...
RotoViz has always championed drafting young, explosive wide receivers. This is particularly true with regards to second-year players, which we’ve often called the biggest edge in fantasy. This cadre of players sees the biggest jump in targets from one year to the next. In recent years however, the cost of these players has started to rise. But it’s also important to remember that recent classes…...
I recently wrote about Hyperfragile drafts in Bestball Mania and how to draft them optimally. It can be an exciting way to draft, but it is usually not implemented very well and the results reflect it. RB3 BEFORE ROUND 5, FIVE OR FEWER RBS Fortunately, the errors are easy to correct and result in a contrarian monster. Doing this research made me extremely excited about…...
The RotoViz suite of Roster Construction Explorer tools are awesome. Because we have both tournament data and a long history of data, we are able to rigorously test out roster construction ideas for historical success. I’ve written previously about how to use these tools to build unique and utterly dominant Zero RB, Anchor RB, and Hyperfragile teams. When it comes to the Underdog BBM III…...
I recently wrote about Hyperfragile drafts in Bestball Mania and how to draft them optimally. It can be an exciting way to draft, but it is usually not implemented very well and the results reflect it. RB3 BEFORE ROUND 5, FIVE OR FEWER RBS Fortunately, the errors are easy to correct and result in a contrarian monster. Doing this research made me extremely excited about…...
Best Ball Mania III is a 451,600-entry tournament with a 470-team Week 17 final. Because of this, finding ways to build high-upside teams that are meaningfully different from the field is of the utmost importance. Accounting for the fact that a large percentage of the prize pool is dedicated to the top few places (38% is for the top-five finishers) is a core facet of…...
Best Ball Mania III is a 451,600-entry tournament with a 470-team Week 17 final. Because of this, finding ways to build high-upside teams that are meaningfully different from the field is of the utmost importance. Accounting for the fact that a large percentage of the prize pool is dedicated to the top few places (38% is for the top-five finishers) is a core facet of…...
Best Ball Mania III is a 451,600-entry tournament with a 470-team Week 17 final. Because of this, finding ways to build high-upside teams that are meaningfully different from the field is of the utmost importance. Accounting for the fact that a large percentage of the prize pool is dedicated to the top few places (38% is for the top-five finishers) is a core facet of…...
Just one quarterback was taken in the first round of the 2022 draft, which is the first time that’s happened since 2013. After writing The Rookie Quarterbacks Who Could Dominate 2022 Best Ball Leagues, it was obviously disappointing news for me. However, I do think there is some nuance to the picture and I will still be excited to the draft rookie QBs this year,…...
The NFL has followed up the wildest offseason of our time with the craziest first round we’ve ever seen. Six wide receivers went in the opening stanza and even that was overshadowed by multiple NFL teams transforming their depth charts with trades involving high profile wide receivers. Today I’m looking at the WR news that changed the best-ball tournament landscape. For all of our player…...
Christian Watson exploded into the drafting public consciousness after drawing significant praise from scouts at the Senior Bowl and then following up with a great combine performance. In the space of a few weeks he went from mostly undrafted in FFPC Best Ball to a 12th-14th round pick. At 6 feet 4 inches and 208 pounds, Watson ran a 4.36 in the forty. At…...
The 2022 rookie quarterback class is widely regarded as one of the weakest in recent memory. Each player comes with notable red flags and their current Underdog ADPs reflect this. Malik Willis is the earliest of the crop at QB28 in the Superflex, while Kenny Pickett, Matt Corral, Desmond Ridder, and Sam Howell all go QB33, QB36, QB37, and QB40 respectively. The Underdog single quarterback…...
The Patriots receiver corps has been lacking in recent years. In an attempt to bolster it, they’ve traded a 2023 third-round pick in return for DeVante Parker and a 2022 fifth. This makes sense for the Dolphins too after a blockbuster trade for Tyreek Hill gives them some major upside but meant fewer opportunities for Parker. But how much of an upgrade is this for…...
The breakup of Davante Adams and the Aaron Rodgers-led Green Bay Packers is a seismic shift in the fantasy football landscape with significant reverberations for the outlooks of both the Packers and the Raiders. Michael Hitchcock did a great job teasing out how the move impacts Adams’ value and the pieces around him. In this article, I’ll be talking about how things might shakeout for the Packers…....
In what has been an absolutely wild offseason, the Dolphins kept the party going by trading a bevy of picks in return for Tyreek Hill. Shawn Siegele examined how the Chiefs’ offense might operate going forward, and I get to tackle the fun side with Hill. For real life football, this is a questionable use of draft capital and salary by Miami. Hill is 28…...
Deshaun Watson is accused of sexually assaulting 22 women. Many of the details are disgusting. It feels odd to be writing about him purely through the lens of fantasy football in the face of such allegations. However, we are playing a game of numbers based on NFL outcomes with money on the line. Therefore a thorough understanding of how he impacts the fantasy landscape is…...
A team’s pass rate is one of the most important variables in deciding how many fantasy points each player will score. The first order impact is on aggregate rushing attempt and target volume, but it’s also a huge determinant in the overall production of an offense. Pass attempts are more efficient than rush attempts, earning more yards (7.1 versus 4.3) and scoring more touchdowns (4.4%…...
Second-year wide receivers have long been one of the cornerstones of winning in fantasy football. However, recent ADPs have made it more challenging to draft these breakouts, particularly on Underdog. This means that we need to pay particular attention when these players carry discounts. Rondale Moore goes at the end of the 10th round on Underdog and the 12th on FFPC. That he plays with Kyler Murray…...
The quarterback position has seen some of the biggest strategic shifts. QBs score easily the most points, so in earlier years, the top quarterbacks went incredibly early. In 2015, two quarterbacks were being drafted earlier than Josh Allen’s current ADP. 2015 QB ADPs, Fanball Yet this ADP was woefully inefficient. Cam Newton entering his fifth season at the peak of his powers should not have…...
The running back dead zone has entered the public consciousness in a big way. An understanding of how to approach the draft once all the top running backs are off the board and exciting wide receivers are still available has become much more widespread. With this greater understanding comes a shift in ADPs. The Win The Flex tool is uniquely well placed to objectively analyze…...
On Underdog, it is no secret that the half-PPR scoring favors running backs more than the wide receivers. And yet, wide receivers go earlier on Underdog than in any other format. It would be tempting to surmise that running backs are dramatically undervalued. In fact, the projections based on the Win The Flex app suggest that running backs will outscore the next available wide receiver…...
RotoViz has always championed drafting young, explosive wide receivers. This is particularly true with regards to second-year players, which we’ve often called the biggest edge in fantasy. This cadre of players sees the biggest jump in targets from one year to the next. In recent years however, the cost of these players has started to rise. But it’s also important to remember that recent classes…...
I recently wrote about Hyperfragile drafts in Bestball Mania and how to draft them optimally. It can be an exciting way to draft, but it is usually not implemented very well and the results reflect it. RB3 BEFORE ROUND 5, FIVE OR FEWER RBS Fortunately, the errors are easy to correct and result in a contrarian monster. Doing this research made me extremely excited about…...
The RotoViz suite of Roster Construction Explorer tools are awesome. Because we have both tournament data and a long history of data, we are able to rigorously test out roster construction ideas for historical success. I’ve written previously about how to use these tools to build unique and utterly dominant Zero RB, Anchor RB, and Hyperfragile teams. When it comes to the Underdog BBM III…...
I recently wrote about Hyperfragile drafts in Bestball Mania and how to draft them optimally. It can be an exciting way to draft, but it is usually not implemented very well and the results reflect it. RB3 BEFORE ROUND 5, FIVE OR FEWER RBS Fortunately, the errors are easy to correct and result in a contrarian monster. Doing this research made me extremely excited about…...
Best Ball Mania III is a 451,600-entry tournament with a 470-team Week 17 final. Because of this, finding ways to build high-upside teams that are meaningfully different from the field is of the utmost importance. Accounting for the fact that a large percentage of the prize pool is dedicated to the top few places (38% is for the top-five finishers) is a core facet of…...
Best Ball Mania III is a 451,600-entry tournament with a 470-team Week 17 final. Because of this, finding ways to build high-upside teams that are meaningfully different from the field is of the utmost importance. Accounting for the fact that a large percentage of the prize pool is dedicated to the top few places (38% is for the top-five finishers) is a core facet of…...
Best Ball Mania III is a 451,600-entry tournament with a 470-team Week 17 final. Because of this, finding ways to build high-upside teams that are meaningfully different from the field is of the utmost importance. Accounting for the fact that a large percentage of the prize pool is dedicated to the top few places (38% is for the top-five finishers) is a core facet of…...
Just one quarterback was taken in the first round of the 2022 draft, which is the first time that’s happened since 2013. After writing The Rookie Quarterbacks Who Could Dominate 2022 Best Ball Leagues, it was obviously disappointing news for me. However, I do think there is some nuance to the picture and I will still be excited to the draft rookie QBs this year,…...
The NFL has followed up the wildest offseason of our time with the craziest first round we’ve ever seen. Six wide receivers went in the opening stanza and even that was overshadowed by multiple NFL teams transforming their depth charts with trades involving high profile wide receivers. Today I’m looking at the WR news that changed the best-ball tournament landscape. For all of our player…...
Christian Watson exploded into the drafting public consciousness after drawing significant praise from scouts at the Senior Bowl and then following up with a great combine performance. In the space of a few weeks he went from mostly undrafted in FFPC Best Ball to a 12th-14th round pick. At 6 feet 4 inches and 208 pounds, Watson ran a 4.36 in the forty. At…...
The 2022 rookie quarterback class is widely regarded as one of the weakest in recent memory. Each player comes with notable red flags and their current Underdog ADPs reflect this. Malik Willis is the earliest of the crop at QB28 in the Superflex, while Kenny Pickett, Matt Corral, Desmond Ridder, and Sam Howell all go QB33, QB36, QB37, and QB40 respectively. The Underdog single quarterback…...
The Patriots receiver corps has been lacking in recent years. In an attempt to bolster it, they’ve traded a 2023 third-round pick in return for DeVante Parker and a 2022 fifth. This makes sense for the Dolphins too after a blockbuster trade for Tyreek Hill gives them some major upside but meant fewer opportunities for Parker. But how much of an upgrade is this for…...
The breakup of Davante Adams and the Aaron Rodgers-led Green Bay Packers is a seismic shift in the fantasy football landscape with significant reverberations for the outlooks of both the Packers and the Raiders. Michael Hitchcock did a great job teasing out how the move impacts Adams’ value and the pieces around him. In this article, I’ll be talking about how things might shakeout for the Packers…....
In what has been an absolutely wild offseason, the Dolphins kept the party going by trading a bevy of picks in return for Tyreek Hill. Shawn Siegele examined how the Chiefs’ offense might operate going forward, and I get to tackle the fun side with Hill. For real life football, this is a questionable use of draft capital and salary by Miami. Hill is 28…...
Deshaun Watson is accused of sexually assaulting 22 women. Many of the details are disgusting. It feels odd to be writing about him purely through the lens of fantasy football in the face of such allegations. However, we are playing a game of numbers based on NFL outcomes with money on the line. Therefore a thorough understanding of how he impacts the fantasy landscape is…...
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