The NFL is constantly evolving and yet history continues to repeat itself. You may have noticed most of the same wide receivers finish in the top producing spots every year. I wrote about this in 2016 and the trend hasn’t changed. I researched the top-24 PPR WRs since 2000 and discovered a small percentage are responsible for the overwhelming majority of fantasy production.  A lot…...

  There are a lot of ways to win in dynasty. Some dynasty owners will plan on losing the first few years while building “dream team” rosters. Others tend to overly focus on youth and/or highly touted rookies. There’s also the “get your guy” owner who will undoubtedly reach for a player often rounds ahead of ADP. You can almost bank on there being at…...

  The 2018 class started out like most previous classes with four rookies finishing inside the PPR top-12 QBs/TEs or top-24 RBs/WRs. The 2010 class was the only class in this series to have less than four, which was the average per year. It’s interesting to note that two of those, Nick Chubb and Phillip Lindsay, weren’t starters at the beginning of the season. This…...

  The 2017 Draft class looks stacked. Patrick Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey have already finished No. 1 at their positions. Alvin Kamara already has as many 300-plus PPR seasons as Adrian Peterson has had in his entire career. George Kittle owns the TE receiving yardage record and JuJu Smith-Schuster has the most receptions for a WR under the age of 23 years old. If only every…...

  If you’re just reading this series for the first time, this is an investigation of the actual hit rates of previous Dynasty rookie classes. Starting with 2010, there’s been some very productive classes and some more scattered with hits. The 2016 class is one of the latter. That doesn’t mean there weren’t some studs. Nobody is complaining about Ezekiel Elliot or Michael Thomas. Unfortunately,…...

  If you’ve been playing dynasty for several years now or following this series, you’re probably familiar with how good the 2014 class is. The RB classes since have been stellar. The WR classes have been spotty at best. Tons of shade thrown on teams that draft RBs in the 1st round. Zero shade on drafting WRs in the 1st. Not a good look for…...

This is the fourth draft class in a series on dynasty hit rates. The goal of this analysis is to find the real hit rates of players  and possibly some insights in future valuations. The 2010 class gave us several perennial studs, as did the 2011 class. The 2012 class was hit or miss past the QBs. I tweeted about 2012 and some very distinguished dynasty…...

In 2012, six rookies finished top 12 at their position. The future was looking very bright for this class. Then it quickly fell off a cliff. 2013 first-round start up pick, Trent Richardson, just played in the AAF. Robert Griffin III is a backup QB while his backup QB, Kirk Cousins, is starting in Minnesota. Doug Martin and Alfred Morris remain unsigned having largely been non-factors…...

The 2011 class gave us A.J. Green and Julio Jones. For years, dynasty players have been hoarding rookie picks with expectations of drafting the next Green or Jones. The problem with this narrative is there isn’t a Green or Jones in every class. Also both players are still in the league. There are only 24 top spots available and both have finished in the top…...

This is the first article in a series looking at previous dynasty rookie draft class ADPs and their hit rates. There are some historical clues inside this analysis that may be advantageous to dynasty as well as redraft players at present. The final article of this series will examine the historical hit rate percentages of nine years of draft classes. Here is the 2010 dynasty…...