The Palmetto Championship is being held at a course that we’ve never seen before. Congaree Golf Club is down in South Carolina and is a par 71 track. As par 71s go, it’s definitely on the longer side measuring in at 7,655 yards. Greens are about average size with bermudagrass and there is water in play on 10 holes. With no data from the actual

We’re heading to Muirfield Village Golf Club for the Memorial Tournament this week. A lot will be made about all of the “radical” changes made to the course. While there have been plenty of holes that will look different to what we’re used to seeing at Muirfield, I don’t believe that there’s anything – other than guessing – that can be done to see how

From a top-down perspective, I’ve quantified a golfer’s baseline skill with my PRK Score. Last year, I backtested it through the 1995 PGA Season and it’s been pretty successful. The PRK is one of the main inputs in my simulator but there also has to be a volatility component. Otherwise, the simulator would just go straight chalk and we wouldn’t really glean anything from the

From a top-down perspective, I’ve quantified a golfer’s baseline skill with my PRK Score. Last year, I backtested it through the 1995 PGA Season and it’s been pretty successful. The PRK is one of the main inputs in my simulator but there also has to be a volatility component. Otherwise, the simulator would just go straight chalk and we wouldn’t really glean anything from the

Golf is volatile. There’s so much variance in golf. GoLOLf. All these common things are said about golf on a weekly basis. Most of the people I know in the fantasy or gambling space question why I bother trying to predict golf. It’s a valid question. My main reason for analyzing golf is that I grew up playing and watching the sport and it truly

The Charles Schwab Challenge is being held at Colonial Country Club once again this year. In fact, they’ve played this track every year since 1941. The course is a par 70 that plays just over 7,200 yards. Colonial has smaller than average green sizes, 84 bunkers, and four water hazards. It’s worth noting that we have a smaller field size this week, as well, with

The second major of the year is here, and the tour is heading back to The Ocean Course at Kiawah Island for this year’s PGA Championship. As usual, we’re in a yardage arms race so the scorecard will read over 7,800 yards. PGA Championships have slowly morphed more into U.S. Open setups with their length. It’s worth noting, obviously, that the yardage number on the

We’re heading back to Texas for the AT&T Byron Nelson. It’s a brand new course that we haven’t seen on the PGA Tour before. It’s a par 72 that plays around 7,400 yards. How it will play is anybody’s guess … I’m firmly in the camp of betting/rostering talent this week. Look, people are going to look at the scorecard and GPS to try and

After an exciting tournament down in Florida, the tour heads up to North Carolina. It’s a familiar course in the Quail Hollow Club. The course is a par 71 that plays just over 7,550 yards. Greens are slightly above average in size and the field will have to contend with four water hazards and 61 bunkers as they make their way around the track. Checking

After a mini-vacation, we’re back with the Valspar Championship this week. The track, as always, is the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Florida. It’s a long-ish par 71 coming in at 7,340 yards. That doesn’t mean that it’s bombs away, though, as many of the holes force a club less than driver off the tee. There are nine holes with water in

The Tour heads over to the RBC Heritage this week for a surprisingly strong field the week after a major. The course is a familiar one in Harbour Town Golf Links. It’s a 7,100-yard par 71. The greens are small and there’s not a premium on distance, which means this is a course unlike many others that tour golfers will face throughout the season. Checking

We know the course, we know the main players. There’s not really much to talk about as far as “intros” go this week. There’s something about this week that’s comforting. It was great to see Augusta in the late Fall, but nothing compares with an April nap while watching the Masters! Checking the Chalk Jordan Spieth ($9,400) seems to be back. Even during his slump,

The WGC Dell Technologies Match Play event is one of the best weeks of the DFS and golf betting year. It presents an entirely different puzzle than a typical week and there are going to be a significant chunk of lineups that are doomed from the start.  Bracketology This week’s tournament features sixteen groups of four golfers to start. Each golfer in that “pod” plays

We’re back in Florida this week for The Honda Classic. This tournament is played at PGA National’s Champion Course in Palm Beach Gardens. It’s a par 70 that plays about 7,125 yards. The Honda Classic is typically a carnage-filled affair. With 15 holes having water in play and the field having to navigate 67 bunkers, we’re hoping that holds true so we can put our

We’re closing out this iteration of the game theory series with the bargain range. Golfers that are priced from $7,400 to $6,500 rarely approach the top of the leaderboard. Only 0.2% of the golfers in this range go on to win the tournament. That’s not really what we’re searching for from this range. A top-15 finish is an incredible outcome here as only 10% of

At this point, we’ve hit the top tier and the mid-range golfers. It’s important to get those decisions correct because the top of the salary scale has the most win equity. To be honest, getting a winner or even a top-five finish from the $8,400 – $7,500 range is a pretty big accomplishment.  Over the course of our sample,[1]Dating back to the start of 2018.

The famous island green, the “Fifth Major”, a star-studded field. What could be better than The PLAYERS week?[1]Besides the majors and Ryder Cup. The course, as always, is TPC Sawgrass. It plays as a 7,200-plus yard par 71. As the field makes its way around the track, they’ll be forced to navigate their way around 88 bunkers and 17 water hazards. There have been some

In my opinion, the $8,500 – $9,900 range is make or break for most PGA DFS lineups. While the guys at the top provide a ton of safety, this range has a lot of golfers that move in and out and there’s always some bad chalk. We know that we aren’t particularly good at picking golfers from this range. I went through this range’s performance