draI would guess there’s a fairly good chance if you are a member of this site that you have taken at least one statistics class before. Unless you are a professional statistician, then there is also a good chance you have since erased this from your memory. Well dust off those old text books because it turns out we can use some basic probability and…...

We have often heard that the NFL has become a passing league. While most of us have accepted that we are in a world where drafting Zero RB has become a dominant strategy, I decided to crunch some numbers and see what effect this evolution has had on fantasy receiving output and game over-under lines throughout time…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member?...

The RotoViz staff has been making their cases for dark horse wide receivers who could lead the NFL in targets.  I am betting on Brandon Marshall, and I think you should join me on the bandwagon. The average NFL target leader since 2000 has seen 182 targets per season. I believe there are several scenarios in which Marshall can clear this number. Those Who Don’t Learn…...

I was going through my MFL10 portfolio, and I noticed multiple New York Giants at the top of my personal leaderboard. I felt it was only right to share why I am buying in to this offense, lock, stock, and barrel. Quarterback We’re long past the days of mockingly calling Eli Manning “eli-te.” Eli is coming off back-to-back QB10 finishes, which provided a solid return on investment at…...

Doug Baldwin and Russell Wilson probably won you your league last year (or caused you mass amounts of grief trying to fade them). Is this offensive juggernaut headed for a repeat in 2016? Efficiency is the Key While the perception has largely been that the second half boom was a byproduct of the Seahawks starting to pass more, the results were actually far more mild than…...

I have been looking at the difference in dynasty and redraft values in my series on the age premium, which has shown a clear trend of owners failing to prioritize winning championships vs. controlling relevant, but inferior assets. Let’s continue looking at this phenomenon from a macro perspective. That is to say, what can we learn by looking at age and position? Age is Not Just a Number I…...

There’s been quite a bit of chatter talking about the effect of Chip Kelly on the 49ers offense. From Torrey Smith to Deandre Smelter to Carlos Hyde to Blaine Gabbert, writers are lining up to take shots at this offense. I may need to rain on this parade a bit, but should the band keep playing anyway? The current RotoViz Staff projections for the 49ers…...

A few weeks ago, I called Will Tye “the potential breakout tight end nobody is talking about.” Sometimes as new information comes out you are forced to pull back the reins on things you previously were charging full speed ahead on. So it is of great regret today that I must take my foot off the gas pedal for Tye. Not So Fast ESPN Giants…...

One of the great sucker’s bets in fantasy football is betting on rookie tight ends. Historically, it is a position that does not beget immediate fantasy success, especially relative to other skill positions…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

What is the goal of fantasy football? To win. Duh. Yet as obvious as this seems, the age premium I introduced in my last article tells a different story about what owners are actually doing. So how do we exploit this? Cognitive Dissonance in Dynasty Theory Holding age constant, dynasty ADP suggests that owners are paying up for inferior players and pushing down superior ones. This…...

One of the larger storylines of the offseason has been the Jets and Broncos passivity regarding the QB position…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

I recently made a trade in a dynasty league where I moved up from the 1.06 pick to 1.03. The magnitude of these three spots seems substantially higher this year than in most others. Within hours of acquiring the 1.03 pick, I had several owners offering to trade for it. I used a Monte Carlo simulation to help decide whether or not to accept an offer…. Membership...