Josh Hermsmeyer

Air yards, Numbers Game, and predictive modeling.

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In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Structural Drafting in Dynasty Leagues

Where do our edges in fantasy football come from? Some believe a sustainable edge comes from player evaluation. Put another way, this is the theory that you can win by being better at picking the right players more often than your competitors…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mike Williams, and the Air Yards FBS Receiver Database

For the past two years the folks behind the site cfbfilmroom have been charting players at select FBS schools and publishing the results of their efforts. In 2016 they covered 13 teams from the major conferences. Along with things like contested catches and YAC, cfbfilmroom also publishes Air Yards Per Target for quarterbacks and receivers…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this...

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2016 Air Yards Database

Last week over at Rotoworld I wrote a primer on Receiver Air Yards. In this article I’m publishing a full list of all receivers who were targeted in 2016 along with their Air Yards per Target, RACR (Receiver Air Conversion Ratio) and WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating)…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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RotoViz 101: Which NFL Team Stats Are Predictive (And Which Aren’t)?

In this series of posts I’ll discuss which of the various box score and advanced stats forecasters should pay attention to when projecting teams and players into the upcoming season…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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The 2017 FBS Receiver Market Share Database

On the heels of 14teammocker’s draft age database, today I’m releasing a full accounting of FBS receiver production for the 2016 season. It includes a full list of players who caught passes, including tight ends, running backs, and wide receivers…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Is it Time to Scrap Zero RB?

Zero RB appears to be in trouble, and its creator saw it coming. Last August in an article about the 2016 Apex Expert’s League, Shawn Siegele wrote the following about the impending decline of Zero RB as the top fantasy drafting strategy:… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Week 12 Air Yards Buy Lows

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Week 10 Air Yards Buy Low Receivers

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Week 9 Air Yards Buy Low WRs

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production. AIR YARDS EXPLAINED Air yards give us a complete view of a wide receiver’s game. They show us the volume of yards that are thrown at a guy, the amount of those yards he caught, and how…...

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Week 8 Air Yards Buy Lows

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Week 7 Air Yards Buy Low WRs

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Week 6 Air Yards Buy Low WRs

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Week 5 Air Yards Buy Low WRs

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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3 Players to Buy After Week 4

Each week I will profile three players to buy low based on their upcoming strength of schedule, Vegas totals and simple common sense…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Week 4 Air Yards Buy Low WRs

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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3 Players to Buy After Week 3

Each week I will profile three players to buy low based on their upcoming strength of schedule, Vegas totals and simple common sense…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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tajae sharpe fantasy

Week 3 Air Yards Buy Low WRs

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Three Players to Buy After Week 2

Each week I will profile three players to buy low based on their upcoming strength of schedule, Vegas totals and simple common sense. Brian Hoyer With Jay Cutler going down with a hand injury, Brian Hoyer is expected to take control of the Bears offense for the next few weeks. The change also coincides with an extremely easy stretch of games for Chicago, which bodes well…...

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Week 2 WR Air Yards Round Up

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Joe Flacco Injury

3 Players to Buy After Week 1

Each week I will profile three players to buy low based on their upcoming strength of schedule, Vegas totals and simple common sense. Jermaine Kearse In Week 1 it was Kearse, not Tyler Lockett, that snagged the lion’s share of WR2 air yards for Seattle. Kearse had a 21 percent market share of air yards vs. Lockett’s eight percent. Kearse was targeted seven times to Lockett’s…...

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Structural Drafting in Dynasty Leagues

Where do our edges in fantasy football come from? Some believe a sustainable edge comes from player evaluation. Put another way, this is the theory that you can win by being better at picking the right players more often than your competitors…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mike Williams, and the Air Yards FBS Receiver Database

For the past two years the folks behind the site cfbfilmroom have been charting players at select FBS schools and publishing the results of their efforts. In 2016 they covered 13 teams from the major conferences. Along with things like contested catches and YAC, cfbfilmroom also publishes Air Yards Per Target for quarterbacks and receivers…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this...

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2016 Air Yards Database

Last week over at Rotoworld I wrote a primer on Receiver Air Yards. In this article I’m publishing a full list of all receivers who were targeted in 2016 along with their Air Yards per Target, RACR (Receiver Air Conversion Ratio) and WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating)…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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RotoViz 101: Which NFL Team Stats Are Predictive (And Which Aren’t)?

In this series of posts I’ll discuss which of the various box score and advanced stats forecasters should pay attention to when projecting teams and players into the upcoming season…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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The 2017 FBS Receiver Market Share Database

On the heels of 14teammocker’s draft age database, today I’m releasing a full accounting of FBS receiver production for the 2016 season. It includes a full list of players who caught passes, including tight ends, running backs, and wide receivers…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Is it Time to Scrap Zero RB?

Zero RB appears to be in trouble, and its creator saw it coming. Last August in an article about the 2016 Apex Expert’s League, Shawn Siegele wrote the following about the impending decline of Zero RB as the top fantasy drafting strategy:… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Week 12 Air Yards Buy Lows

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Week 10 Air Yards Buy Low Receivers

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Week 9 Air Yards Buy Low WRs

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production. AIR YARDS EXPLAINED Air yards give us a complete view of a wide receiver’s game. They show us the volume of yards that are thrown at a guy, the amount of those yards he caught, and how…...

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Week 8 Air Yards Buy Lows

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Week 7 Air Yards Buy Low WRs

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Week 6 Air Yards Buy Low WRs

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Week 5 Air Yards Buy Low WRs

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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3 Players to Buy After Week 4

Each week I will profile three players to buy low based on their upcoming strength of schedule, Vegas totals and simple common sense…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Week 4 Air Yards Buy Low WRs

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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3 Players to Buy After Week 3

Each week I will profile three players to buy low based on their upcoming strength of schedule, Vegas totals and simple common sense…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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tajae sharpe fantasy

Week 3 Air Yards Buy Low WRs

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Three Players to Buy After Week 2

Each week I will profile three players to buy low based on their upcoming strength of schedule, Vegas totals and simple common sense. Brian Hoyer With Jay Cutler going down with a hand injury, Brian Hoyer is expected to take control of the Bears offense for the next few weeks. The change also coincides with an extremely easy stretch of games for Chicago, which bodes well…...

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Week 2 WR Air Yards Round Up

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Joe Flacco Injury

3 Players to Buy After Week 1

Each week I will profile three players to buy low based on their upcoming strength of schedule, Vegas totals and simple common sense. Jermaine Kearse In Week 1 it was Kearse, not Tyler Lockett, that snagged the lion’s share of WR2 air yards for Seattle. Kearse had a 21 percent market share of air yards vs. Lockett’s eight percent. Kearse was targeted seven times to Lockett’s…...

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Structural Drafting in Dynasty Leagues

Where do our edges in fantasy football come from? Some believe a sustainable edge comes from player evaluation. Put another way, this is the theory that you can win by being better at picking the right players more often than your competitors…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

Membership Required

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JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mike Williams, and the Air Yards FBS Receiver Database

For the past two years the folks behind the site cfbfilmroom have been charting players at select FBS schools and publishing the results of their efforts. In 2016 they covered 13 teams from the major conferences. Along with things like contested catches and YAC, cfbfilmroom also publishes Air Yards Per Target for quarterbacks and receivers…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this...

Membership Required

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View Membership Levels

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2016 Air Yards Database

Last week over at Rotoworld I wrote a primer on Receiver Air Yards. In this article I’m publishing a full list of all receivers who were targeted in 2016 along with their Air Yards per Target, RACR (Receiver Air Conversion Ratio) and WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating)…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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RotoViz 101: Which NFL Team Stats Are Predictive (And Which Aren’t)?

In this series of posts I’ll discuss which of the various box score and advanced stats forecasters should pay attention to when projecting teams and players into the upcoming season…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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The 2017 FBS Receiver Market Share Database

On the heels of 14teammocker’s draft age database, today I’m releasing a full accounting of FBS receiver production for the 2016 season. It includes a full list of players who caught passes, including tight ends, running backs, and wide receivers…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Is it Time to Scrap Zero RB?

Zero RB appears to be in trouble, and its creator saw it coming. Last August in an article about the 2016 Apex Expert’s League, Shawn Siegele wrote the following about the impending decline of Zero RB as the top fantasy drafting strategy:… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Week 12 Air Yards Buy Lows

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Week 10 Air Yards Buy Low Receivers

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Week 9 Air Yards Buy Low WRs

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production. AIR YARDS EXPLAINED Air yards give us a complete view of a wide receiver’s game. They show us the volume of yards that are thrown at a guy, the amount of those yards he caught, and how…...

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Week 8 Air Yards Buy Lows

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Week 7 Air Yards Buy Low WRs

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Week 6 Air Yards Buy Low WRs

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Week 5 Air Yards Buy Low WRs

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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3 Players to Buy After Week 4

Each week I will profile three players to buy low based on their upcoming strength of schedule, Vegas totals and simple common sense…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Week 4 Air Yards Buy Low WRs

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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3 Players to Buy After Week 3

Each week I will profile three players to buy low based on their upcoming strength of schedule, Vegas totals and simple common sense…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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tajae sharpe fantasy

Week 3 Air Yards Buy Low WRs

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Three Players to Buy After Week 2

Each week I will profile three players to buy low based on their upcoming strength of schedule, Vegas totals and simple common sense. Brian Hoyer With Jay Cutler going down with a hand injury, Brian Hoyer is expected to take control of the Bears offense for the next few weeks. The change also coincides with an extremely easy stretch of games for Chicago, which bodes well…...

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Week 2 WR Air Yards Round Up

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Joe Flacco Injury

3 Players to Buy After Week 1

Each week I will profile three players to buy low based on their upcoming strength of schedule, Vegas totals and simple common sense. Jermaine Kearse In Week 1 it was Kearse, not Tyler Lockett, that snagged the lion’s share of WR2 air yards for Seattle. Kearse had a 21 percent market share of air yards vs. Lockett’s eight percent. Kearse was targeted seven times to Lockett’s…...

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