In-Season
Blair Andrews
December 21, 2024
© 2021 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.
Blair Andrews
Managing Editor, Author of The Wrong Read, Occasional Fantasy Football League Winner. All opinions are someone else's.
Author Archive
In-Season Articles
In-Season Articles
The Crucial Wide Receiver Stat That Drafters Forgot: How to Use Advanced WR Metrics to Beat ADP
Blair Andrews
August 2, 2023
My previous article examined which metrics are most predictive for wide receivers. I was concerned in that piece to show which metrics were both stable (predicted themselves) and useful (predicted fantasy points.) Today I want to ask a slightly different but even more important question: which WR metrics are most valuable? That is, which metrics give us an edge in fantasy drafts? It doesn’t help…...
How to Predict the Future: Why Fantasy Wide Receiver Evaluation Is Easier Than You Think, and Why So Many Get It Wrong
Blair Andrews
July 26, 2023
About two years ago I performed a deep dive into some of the advanced wide receiver metrics we had recently added to the site. The advanced metrics from Sports Info Solutions gave us a lot of predictive power and nuance, and helped to explain why some of the longstanding metrics we’ve used for years continue to be among the best for fantasy managers. With now…...
Late-Round Tight End Never Works — But It Might Work for Us: 7 Tight Ends in the Double-Digit Rounds to Help You Lean Into the WR Avalanche
Blair Andrews
July 18, 2023
Elite-tight-end builds — or even double-elite-TE builds — have long been a staple of winning roster construction principles at RotoViz. Even in Shawn Siegele’s foundational Zero-RB article, he mentions that his preferred construction in the first five rounds includes four WRs and a TE. Looking back at the win rates for elite TE builds shows that beginning your draft with a top TE provides a…...
Is the QB Window Still Viable? Exploring the Impact of Quarterback Breakouts and Injuries
Blair Andrews
July 8, 2023
Earlier this offseason, Michael Dubner suggested that elite quarterbacks can carry teams to the playoffs despite the elevated cost. Shawn Siegele has found a number of late options with breakout potential. Both rightly pointed out that the QB window did not provide the returns in 2022 that we’ve come to expect. Yet, in many ways, the death of the QB window has been greatly exaggerated…....
How to Use the Win the Flex and Range of Outcomes Tools to Find Undervalued Wide Receivers
Blair Andrews
June 22, 2023
RotoViz was a pioneer of the idea of structural drafting, often in tandem with the idea that the flex wins championships and that fantasy football drafts are a race to fill the flex. But we’ve always paired structural drafting with evidence-based player-level research. Success in fantasy is not as simple as drafting the right number of RBs or drafting a QB in the right round,…...
My Favorite Targets in Each Round of Early Underdog Drafts: Part 2 – The Correlation Picks
Blair Andrews
May 31, 2023
Best Ball Mania IV is in full swing, and player ADPs are becoming more rigid every day as drafters anchor to the number next to a player’s name. This situation gives savvy drafters an advantage though, as it makes it much easier to plan a draft round-by-round. Using our Underdog ADP tool — now with the ability to show an ADP Draft Grid — we…...
My Favorite Targets in Each Round of Early Underdog Drafts: Part 1 – The Foundation Picks
Blair Andrews
May 29, 2023
Best Ball Mania IV is in full swing, and player ADPs are becoming more rigid every day as drafters anchor to the number next to a player’s name. This situation gives savvy drafters an advantage though, as it makes it much easier to plan a draft round-by-round. Using our Underdog ADP tool — now with the ability to show an ADP Draft Grid — we…...
This Method for Crushing Underdog Tournaments With Rookie RBs Is Counterintuitive But Powerful
Blair Andrews
May 11, 2023
In Part 1, Blair Andrews argued that Jahmyr Gibbs is undervalued in best ball, even at his current valuation, right at the Round 3/4 turn. Rookie running backs drafted in the first 100 reality picks — especially those who are young — have a better chance than most other RBs to put up big scores in the fantasy playoffs. But an obvious question remains: can…...
Jahmyr Gibbs Is the Best Value in Every Draft: How to Find Rookie RB Stars in Underdog’s Best Ball Mania IV
Blair Andrews
May 9, 2023
Shawn Siegele, Dave Caban, Curtis Patrick, and I spent NFL Draft Sunday night arguing (in a friendly way) about rookie rankings and completing mock drafts for Volume 3 of the RotoViz Rookie Guide. I spent much of that time trying to convince my co-rankers that reasonable people could rank Jahmyr Gibbs as the rookie 1.01. I even took him first overall in one of our…...
Chase Brown’s Elite Production and Athleticism Could Help Him Earn an Immediate Role in Cincinnati
Blair Andrews
April 29, 2023
RotoViz writers have been keeping busy over the last two days with up-to-minute reactions for all the fantasy-relevant draft picks in the first three rounds. Be sure to check out our previous draft coverage and pre-draft research. Day 1 Instant Fantasy Reactions: Where the Stars Belong Now Superflex Rookie Draft Projections Following Round 1 Day 2 Instant Reactions: Rising Studs and Super Sleepers on a…...
Tyler Scott Has the Production Profile We Like to See, But Can He Make the Most of His Opportunities in Chicago?
Blair Andrews
April 29, 2023
RotoViz writers have been keeping busy over the last two days with up-to-minute reactions for all the fantasy-relevant draft picks in the first three rounds. Be sure to check out our previous draft coverage and pre-draft research. Day 1 Instant Fantasy Reactions: Where the Stars Belong Now Superflex Rookie Draft Projections Following Round 1 Day 2 Instant Reactions: Rising Studs and Super Sleepers on a…...
How to Smash the NFL Draft: Key RB Receiving Stats, Plus Other Advanced Metrics To Gain a Fantasy Edge
Blair Andrews
April 27, 2023
The NFL Draft is only hours away, and when it comes we will get our most telling indication of how our favorite prospects’ NFL careers might go. Nothing predicts NFL success better than draft position, in part because nothing determines early NFL opportunity quite like draft position. But just because draft position is the most predictive metric, that doesn’t mean it’s entirely efficient. . …....
Is the NFL Draft Efficient? Running Back Metrics That Help You Project the NFL Draft . . . and Then Beat It In Fantasy
Blair Andrews
April 27, 2023
The NFL Draft is only hours away, and when it comes we will get our most telling indication of how our favorite prospect’s NFL careers might go. Nothing predicts NFL success better than draft position, in part because nothing determines early NFL opportunity quite like draft position. But just because draft position is the most predictive metric, that doesn’t mean it’s entirely efficient. What do…...
Jaxon Smith-Njigba and a Multi-Definitional Look at Breakout Age for Wide Receiver Prospects
Blair Andrews
April 19, 2023
In The Wrong Read, No. 76, Blair Andrews dives into the definition of a breakout season for collegiate WR prospects and suggests a path for improving the metric. We’ve long defined a wide receiver breakout as a player’s first season in which they achieve a 30% dominator rating. While that has proven to be among the most accurate and discerning measures of college breakouts, it’s…...
Anthony Richardson, Kayshon Boutte, and How Fantasy Managers Can Beat the NFL Draft: The 2023 NFL Prospect Age Database
Blair Andrews
April 12, 2023
Draft age is one of the most important metrics when evaluating prospects, at all positions. Across the board we see that players who are drafted at a younger age are more successful at nearly every stage of their careers, and are successful for longer than their peers that were drafted at an older age. There are few prospect metrics that have more predictive power than…...
Chase Brown’s Insane Production Hasn’t Yet Earned Him the Approval of NFL Scouts — Is This an Exploitable Inefficiency or a Failure of the Metrics?
Blair Andrews
April 2, 2023
Earlier this week I published the backfield dominator ratings (BDR) for the 2023 running back class. Chase Brown ranked No. 4 in BDR, thanks in large part to the number of opportunities he saw in Illinois’ offense. He had at least 20 touches and surpassed 100 total yards in every single game. Opponent RuAtts RuYds RuTDs RuAttMS RuYdMS Recs ReYds ReTDs Touches TotalYds Wyoming 19…...
3 Small (or Small School) Running Backs Who Could Surprise You, and 1 Trendy Name with a Major Red Flag: 2023 Backfield Dominator Ratings
Blair Andrews
March 29, 2023
Production is nearly always undervalued at the running back position. In part that’s because it’s not always the easiest thing to measure. Yes, we can easily look at the leaderboards in rushing and receiving yards and see who compiled the biggest numbers. But doing so leaves out a lot of context. For one thing, it doesn’t tell us much about a player’s offensive environment? Was…...
Jamaal Williams Is a Sneaky Pick to Regain Elements of His Green Bay Profile and Benefit from Alvin Kamara Uncertainty
Blair Andrews
March 17, 2023
Jamaal Williams has signed a three-year deal with the New Orleans Saints worth $12 million, with $8 million guaranteed. Williams is coming off a league leading 17-touchdown season on the back of 46 green zone touches (also the most in the league). Can he replicate this type of season in New Orleans? Williams’ Breakout Season Williams is moving to his third team since entering the…...
Allen Lazard Is Better Than You Think, But is Green Bay 2.0 Enough to Launch the Jets to the Next Level?
Blair Andrews
March 15, 2023
Allen Lazard has agreed to a four-year, $44 million deal with the New York Jets, $22 million of which is guaranteed. What does the move mean for the Jets and their bid to secure the services of Aaron Rodgers. Can Lazard thrive in a new-look Jets offense? Although the Packers and Jets appear to be engaged in a battle of brinksmanship when it comes to…...
Jimmy Garoppolo Finally Ready to Add Fantasy Exploits to His Reality Value? 3 Stealth Reasons He’s More Than a Placeholder
Blair Andrews
March 14, 2023
The Raiders wasted little time in replacing their long-time quarterback Derek Carr (now a New Orleans Saint). They all but signed Jimmy Garoppolo on the first day of the NFL’s “legal tampering” period. The deal will be official on Wednesday, but is apparently worth $67.5 million over three years. Is Garoppolo a suitable replacement for Carr? How will he fit in the Raiders’ offense? And…...
The Crucial Wide Receiver Stat That Drafters Forgot: How to Use Advanced WR Metrics to Beat ADP
Blair Andrews
August 2, 2023
My previous article examined which metrics are most predictive for wide receivers. I was concerned in that piece to show which metrics were both stable (predicted themselves) and useful (predicted fantasy points.) Today I want to ask a slightly different but even more important question: which WR metrics are most valuable? That is, which metrics give us an edge in fantasy drafts? It doesn’t help…...
How to Predict the Future: Why Fantasy Wide Receiver Evaluation Is Easier Than You Think, and Why So Many Get It Wrong
Blair Andrews
July 26, 2023
About two years ago I performed a deep dive into some of the advanced wide receiver metrics we had recently added to the site. The advanced metrics from Sports Info Solutions gave us a lot of predictive power and nuance, and helped to explain why some of the longstanding metrics we’ve used for years continue to be among the best for fantasy managers. With now…...
Late-Round Tight End Never Works — But It Might Work for Us: 7 Tight Ends in the Double-Digit Rounds to Help You Lean Into the WR Avalanche
Blair Andrews
July 18, 2023
Elite-tight-end builds — or even double-elite-TE builds — have long been a staple of winning roster construction principles at RotoViz. Even in Shawn Siegele’s foundational Zero-RB article, he mentions that his preferred construction in the first five rounds includes four WRs and a TE. Looking back at the win rates for elite TE builds shows that beginning your draft with a top TE provides a…...
Is the QB Window Still Viable? Exploring the Impact of Quarterback Breakouts and Injuries
Blair Andrews
July 8, 2023
Earlier this offseason, Michael Dubner suggested that elite quarterbacks can carry teams to the playoffs despite the elevated cost. Shawn Siegele has found a number of late options with breakout potential. Both rightly pointed out that the QB window did not provide the returns in 2022 that we’ve come to expect. Yet, in many ways, the death of the QB window has been greatly exaggerated…....
How to Use the Win the Flex and Range of Outcomes Tools to Find Undervalued Wide Receivers
Blair Andrews
June 22, 2023
RotoViz was a pioneer of the idea of structural drafting, often in tandem with the idea that the flex wins championships and that fantasy football drafts are a race to fill the flex. But we’ve always paired structural drafting with evidence-based player-level research. Success in fantasy is not as simple as drafting the right number of RBs or drafting a QB in the right round,…...
My Favorite Targets in Each Round of Early Underdog Drafts: Part 2 – The Correlation Picks
Blair Andrews
May 31, 2023
Best Ball Mania IV is in full swing, and player ADPs are becoming more rigid every day as drafters anchor to the number next to a player’s name. This situation gives savvy drafters an advantage though, as it makes it much easier to plan a draft round-by-round. Using our Underdog ADP tool — now with the ability to show an ADP Draft Grid — we…...
My Favorite Targets in Each Round of Early Underdog Drafts: Part 1 – The Foundation Picks
Blair Andrews
May 29, 2023
Best Ball Mania IV is in full swing, and player ADPs are becoming more rigid every day as drafters anchor to the number next to a player’s name. This situation gives savvy drafters an advantage though, as it makes it much easier to plan a draft round-by-round. Using our Underdog ADP tool — now with the ability to show an ADP Draft Grid — we…...
This Method for Crushing Underdog Tournaments With Rookie RBs Is Counterintuitive But Powerful
Blair Andrews
May 11, 2023
In Part 1, Blair Andrews argued that Jahmyr Gibbs is undervalued in best ball, even at his current valuation, right at the Round 3/4 turn. Rookie running backs drafted in the first 100 reality picks — especially those who are young — have a better chance than most other RBs to put up big scores in the fantasy playoffs. But an obvious question remains: can…...
Jahmyr Gibbs Is the Best Value in Every Draft: How to Find Rookie RB Stars in Underdog’s Best Ball Mania IV
Blair Andrews
May 9, 2023
Shawn Siegele, Dave Caban, Curtis Patrick, and I spent NFL Draft Sunday night arguing (in a friendly way) about rookie rankings and completing mock drafts for Volume 3 of the RotoViz Rookie Guide. I spent much of that time trying to convince my co-rankers that reasonable people could rank Jahmyr Gibbs as the rookie 1.01. I even took him first overall in one of our…...
Chase Brown’s Elite Production and Athleticism Could Help Him Earn an Immediate Role in Cincinnati
Blair Andrews
April 29, 2023
RotoViz writers have been keeping busy over the last two days with up-to-minute reactions for all the fantasy-relevant draft picks in the first three rounds. Be sure to check out our previous draft coverage and pre-draft research. Day 1 Instant Fantasy Reactions: Where the Stars Belong Now Superflex Rookie Draft Projections Following Round 1 Day 2 Instant Reactions: Rising Studs and Super Sleepers on a…...
Tyler Scott Has the Production Profile We Like to See, But Can He Make the Most of His Opportunities in Chicago?
Blair Andrews
April 29, 2023
RotoViz writers have been keeping busy over the last two days with up-to-minute reactions for all the fantasy-relevant draft picks in the first three rounds. Be sure to check out our previous draft coverage and pre-draft research. Day 1 Instant Fantasy Reactions: Where the Stars Belong Now Superflex Rookie Draft Projections Following Round 1 Day 2 Instant Reactions: Rising Studs and Super Sleepers on a…...
How to Smash the NFL Draft: Key RB Receiving Stats, Plus Other Advanced Metrics To Gain a Fantasy Edge
Blair Andrews
April 27, 2023
The NFL Draft is only hours away, and when it comes we will get our most telling indication of how our favorite prospects’ NFL careers might go. Nothing predicts NFL success better than draft position, in part because nothing determines early NFL opportunity quite like draft position. But just because draft position is the most predictive metric, that doesn’t mean it’s entirely efficient. . …....
Is the NFL Draft Efficient? Running Back Metrics That Help You Project the NFL Draft . . . and Then Beat It In Fantasy
Blair Andrews
April 27, 2023
The NFL Draft is only hours away, and when it comes we will get our most telling indication of how our favorite prospect’s NFL careers might go. Nothing predicts NFL success better than draft position, in part because nothing determines early NFL opportunity quite like draft position. But just because draft position is the most predictive metric, that doesn’t mean it’s entirely efficient. What do…...
Jaxon Smith-Njigba and a Multi-Definitional Look at Breakout Age for Wide Receiver Prospects
Blair Andrews
April 19, 2023
In The Wrong Read, No. 76, Blair Andrews dives into the definition of a breakout season for collegiate WR prospects and suggests a path for improving the metric. We’ve long defined a wide receiver breakout as a player’s first season in which they achieve a 30% dominator rating. While that has proven to be among the most accurate and discerning measures of college breakouts, it’s…...
Anthony Richardson, Kayshon Boutte, and How Fantasy Managers Can Beat the NFL Draft: The 2023 NFL Prospect Age Database
Blair Andrews
April 12, 2023
Draft age is one of the most important metrics when evaluating prospects, at all positions. Across the board we see that players who are drafted at a younger age are more successful at nearly every stage of their careers, and are successful for longer than their peers that were drafted at an older age. There are few prospect metrics that have more predictive power than…...
Chase Brown’s Insane Production Hasn’t Yet Earned Him the Approval of NFL Scouts — Is This an Exploitable Inefficiency or a Failure of the Metrics?
Blair Andrews
April 2, 2023
Earlier this week I published the backfield dominator ratings (BDR) for the 2023 running back class. Chase Brown ranked No. 4 in BDR, thanks in large part to the number of opportunities he saw in Illinois’ offense. He had at least 20 touches and surpassed 100 total yards in every single game. Opponent RuAtts RuYds RuTDs RuAttMS RuYdMS Recs ReYds ReTDs Touches TotalYds Wyoming 19…...
3 Small (or Small School) Running Backs Who Could Surprise You, and 1 Trendy Name with a Major Red Flag: 2023 Backfield Dominator Ratings
Blair Andrews
March 29, 2023
Production is nearly always undervalued at the running back position. In part that’s because it’s not always the easiest thing to measure. Yes, we can easily look at the leaderboards in rushing and receiving yards and see who compiled the biggest numbers. But doing so leaves out a lot of context. For one thing, it doesn’t tell us much about a player’s offensive environment? Was…...
Jamaal Williams Is a Sneaky Pick to Regain Elements of His Green Bay Profile and Benefit from Alvin Kamara Uncertainty
Blair Andrews
March 17, 2023
Jamaal Williams has signed a three-year deal with the New Orleans Saints worth $12 million, with $8 million guaranteed. Williams is coming off a league leading 17-touchdown season on the back of 46 green zone touches (also the most in the league). Can he replicate this type of season in New Orleans? Williams’ Breakout Season Williams is moving to his third team since entering the…...
Allen Lazard Is Better Than You Think, But is Green Bay 2.0 Enough to Launch the Jets to the Next Level?
Blair Andrews
March 15, 2023
Allen Lazard has agreed to a four-year, $44 million deal with the New York Jets, $22 million of which is guaranteed. What does the move mean for the Jets and their bid to secure the services of Aaron Rodgers. Can Lazard thrive in a new-look Jets offense? Although the Packers and Jets appear to be engaged in a battle of brinksmanship when it comes to…...
Jimmy Garoppolo Finally Ready to Add Fantasy Exploits to His Reality Value? 3 Stealth Reasons He’s More Than a Placeholder
Blair Andrews
March 14, 2023
The Raiders wasted little time in replacing their long-time quarterback Derek Carr (now a New Orleans Saint). They all but signed Jimmy Garoppolo on the first day of the NFL’s “legal tampering” period. The deal will be official on Wednesday, but is apparently worth $67.5 million over three years. Is Garoppolo a suitable replacement for Carr? How will he fit in the Raiders’ offense? And…...
The Crucial Wide Receiver Stat That Drafters Forgot: How to Use Advanced WR Metrics to Beat ADP
Blair Andrews
August 2, 2023
My previous article examined which metrics are most predictive for wide receivers. I was concerned in that piece to show which metrics were both stable (predicted themselves) and useful (predicted fantasy points.) Today I want to ask a slightly different but even more important question: which WR metrics are most valuable? That is, which metrics give us an edge in fantasy drafts? It doesn’t help…...
How to Predict the Future: Why Fantasy Wide Receiver Evaluation Is Easier Than You Think, and Why So Many Get It Wrong
Blair Andrews
July 26, 2023
About two years ago I performed a deep dive into some of the advanced wide receiver metrics we had recently added to the site. The advanced metrics from Sports Info Solutions gave us a lot of predictive power and nuance, and helped to explain why some of the longstanding metrics we’ve used for years continue to be among the best for fantasy managers. With now…...
Late-Round Tight End Never Works — But It Might Work for Us: 7 Tight Ends in the Double-Digit Rounds to Help You Lean Into the WR Avalanche
Blair Andrews
July 18, 2023
Elite-tight-end builds — or even double-elite-TE builds — have long been a staple of winning roster construction principles at RotoViz. Even in Shawn Siegele’s foundational Zero-RB article, he mentions that his preferred construction in the first five rounds includes four WRs and a TE. Looking back at the win rates for elite TE builds shows that beginning your draft with a top TE provides a…...
Is the QB Window Still Viable? Exploring the Impact of Quarterback Breakouts and Injuries
Blair Andrews
July 8, 2023
Earlier this offseason, Michael Dubner suggested that elite quarterbacks can carry teams to the playoffs despite the elevated cost. Shawn Siegele has found a number of late options with breakout potential. Both rightly pointed out that the QB window did not provide the returns in 2022 that we’ve come to expect. Yet, in many ways, the death of the QB window has been greatly exaggerated…....
How to Use the Win the Flex and Range of Outcomes Tools to Find Undervalued Wide Receivers
Blair Andrews
June 22, 2023
RotoViz was a pioneer of the idea of structural drafting, often in tandem with the idea that the flex wins championships and that fantasy football drafts are a race to fill the flex. But we’ve always paired structural drafting with evidence-based player-level research. Success in fantasy is not as simple as drafting the right number of RBs or drafting a QB in the right round,…...
My Favorite Targets in Each Round of Early Underdog Drafts: Part 2 – The Correlation Picks
Blair Andrews
May 31, 2023
Best Ball Mania IV is in full swing, and player ADPs are becoming more rigid every day as drafters anchor to the number next to a player’s name. This situation gives savvy drafters an advantage though, as it makes it much easier to plan a draft round-by-round. Using our Underdog ADP tool — now with the ability to show an ADP Draft Grid — we…...
My Favorite Targets in Each Round of Early Underdog Drafts: Part 1 – The Foundation Picks
Blair Andrews
May 29, 2023
Best Ball Mania IV is in full swing, and player ADPs are becoming more rigid every day as drafters anchor to the number next to a player’s name. This situation gives savvy drafters an advantage though, as it makes it much easier to plan a draft round-by-round. Using our Underdog ADP tool — now with the ability to show an ADP Draft Grid — we…...
This Method for Crushing Underdog Tournaments With Rookie RBs Is Counterintuitive But Powerful
Blair Andrews
May 11, 2023
In Part 1, Blair Andrews argued that Jahmyr Gibbs is undervalued in best ball, even at his current valuation, right at the Round 3/4 turn. Rookie running backs drafted in the first 100 reality picks — especially those who are young — have a better chance than most other RBs to put up big scores in the fantasy playoffs. But an obvious question remains: can…...
Jahmyr Gibbs Is the Best Value in Every Draft: How to Find Rookie RB Stars in Underdog’s Best Ball Mania IV
Blair Andrews
May 9, 2023
Shawn Siegele, Dave Caban, Curtis Patrick, and I spent NFL Draft Sunday night arguing (in a friendly way) about rookie rankings and completing mock drafts for Volume 3 of the RotoViz Rookie Guide. I spent much of that time trying to convince my co-rankers that reasonable people could rank Jahmyr Gibbs as the rookie 1.01. I even took him first overall in one of our…...
Chase Brown’s Elite Production and Athleticism Could Help Him Earn an Immediate Role in Cincinnati
Blair Andrews
April 29, 2023
RotoViz writers have been keeping busy over the last two days with up-to-minute reactions for all the fantasy-relevant draft picks in the first three rounds. Be sure to check out our previous draft coverage and pre-draft research. Day 1 Instant Fantasy Reactions: Where the Stars Belong Now Superflex Rookie Draft Projections Following Round 1 Day 2 Instant Reactions: Rising Studs and Super Sleepers on a…...
Tyler Scott Has the Production Profile We Like to See, But Can He Make the Most of His Opportunities in Chicago?
Blair Andrews
April 29, 2023
RotoViz writers have been keeping busy over the last two days with up-to-minute reactions for all the fantasy-relevant draft picks in the first three rounds. Be sure to check out our previous draft coverage and pre-draft research. Day 1 Instant Fantasy Reactions: Where the Stars Belong Now Superflex Rookie Draft Projections Following Round 1 Day 2 Instant Reactions: Rising Studs and Super Sleepers on a…...
How to Smash the NFL Draft: Key RB Receiving Stats, Plus Other Advanced Metrics To Gain a Fantasy Edge
Blair Andrews
April 27, 2023
The NFL Draft is only hours away, and when it comes we will get our most telling indication of how our favorite prospects’ NFL careers might go. Nothing predicts NFL success better than draft position, in part because nothing determines early NFL opportunity quite like draft position. But just because draft position is the most predictive metric, that doesn’t mean it’s entirely efficient. . …....
Is the NFL Draft Efficient? Running Back Metrics That Help You Project the NFL Draft . . . and Then Beat It In Fantasy
Blair Andrews
April 27, 2023
The NFL Draft is only hours away, and when it comes we will get our most telling indication of how our favorite prospect’s NFL careers might go. Nothing predicts NFL success better than draft position, in part because nothing determines early NFL opportunity quite like draft position. But just because draft position is the most predictive metric, that doesn’t mean it’s entirely efficient. What do…...
Jaxon Smith-Njigba and a Multi-Definitional Look at Breakout Age for Wide Receiver Prospects
Blair Andrews
April 19, 2023
In The Wrong Read, No. 76, Blair Andrews dives into the definition of a breakout season for collegiate WR prospects and suggests a path for improving the metric. We’ve long defined a wide receiver breakout as a player’s first season in which they achieve a 30% dominator rating. While that has proven to be among the most accurate and discerning measures of college breakouts, it’s…...
Anthony Richardson, Kayshon Boutte, and How Fantasy Managers Can Beat the NFL Draft: The 2023 NFL Prospect Age Database
Blair Andrews
April 12, 2023
Draft age is one of the most important metrics when evaluating prospects, at all positions. Across the board we see that players who are drafted at a younger age are more successful at nearly every stage of their careers, and are successful for longer than their peers that were drafted at an older age. There are few prospect metrics that have more predictive power than…...
Chase Brown’s Insane Production Hasn’t Yet Earned Him the Approval of NFL Scouts — Is This an Exploitable Inefficiency or a Failure of the Metrics?
Blair Andrews
April 2, 2023
Earlier this week I published the backfield dominator ratings (BDR) for the 2023 running back class. Chase Brown ranked No. 4 in BDR, thanks in large part to the number of opportunities he saw in Illinois’ offense. He had at least 20 touches and surpassed 100 total yards in every single game. Opponent RuAtts RuYds RuTDs RuAttMS RuYdMS Recs ReYds ReTDs Touches TotalYds Wyoming 19…...
3 Small (or Small School) Running Backs Who Could Surprise You, and 1 Trendy Name with a Major Red Flag: 2023 Backfield Dominator Ratings
Blair Andrews
March 29, 2023
Production is nearly always undervalued at the running back position. In part that’s because it’s not always the easiest thing to measure. Yes, we can easily look at the leaderboards in rushing and receiving yards and see who compiled the biggest numbers. But doing so leaves out a lot of context. For one thing, it doesn’t tell us much about a player’s offensive environment? Was…...
Jamaal Williams Is a Sneaky Pick to Regain Elements of His Green Bay Profile and Benefit from Alvin Kamara Uncertainty
Blair Andrews
March 17, 2023
Jamaal Williams has signed a three-year deal with the New Orleans Saints worth $12 million, with $8 million guaranteed. Williams is coming off a league leading 17-touchdown season on the back of 46 green zone touches (also the most in the league). Can he replicate this type of season in New Orleans? Williams’ Breakout Season Williams is moving to his third team since entering the…...
Allen Lazard Is Better Than You Think, But is Green Bay 2.0 Enough to Launch the Jets to the Next Level?
Blair Andrews
March 15, 2023
Allen Lazard has agreed to a four-year, $44 million deal with the New York Jets, $22 million of which is guaranteed. What does the move mean for the Jets and their bid to secure the services of Aaron Rodgers. Can Lazard thrive in a new-look Jets offense? Although the Packers and Jets appear to be engaged in a battle of brinksmanship when it comes to…...
Jimmy Garoppolo Finally Ready to Add Fantasy Exploits to His Reality Value? 3 Stealth Reasons He’s More Than a Placeholder
Blair Andrews
March 14, 2023
The Raiders wasted little time in replacing their long-time quarterback Derek Carr (now a New Orleans Saint). They all but signed Jimmy Garoppolo on the first day of the NFL’s “legal tampering” period. The deal will be official on Wednesday, but is apparently worth $67.5 million over three years. Is Garoppolo a suitable replacement for Carr? How will he fit in the Raiders’ offense? And…...
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