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Kevin Szafraniec
April 1, 2025
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Blair Andrews
Managing Editor, Author of The Wrong Read, Occasional Fantasy Football League Winner. All opinions are someone else's.
Author Archive
In-Season Articles
In-Season Articles
4 RB Sleepers to Watch and 1 Early Pick Who’s Better Than You Think: 2019 Backfield Dominator Ratings
Blair Andrews
May 6, 2019
WARNING: unbalanced footnote start tag short code found.If this warning is irrelevant, please disable the syntax validation feature in the dashboard under General settings > Footnote start and end short codes > Check for balanced shortcodes.Unbalanced start tag short code found before:“And it also adjusts for teams that tend to use wide receivers in the running… Membership Required You must be a member to access this...
2019 Rookie RB Tournament: (2) David Montgomery vs. (15) Travis Homer
Blair Andrews
April 23, 2019
In the first round of the 2019 RotoViz Rookie RB Tournament, second-seeded David Montgomery faces off against the 15 seed Travis Homer. Is Homer’s excellent combine enough to overcome Montgomery’s elite production? Find out below. Note from Curtis Patrick, RotoViz Dynasty Coordinator: The 2019 RotoViz Rookie RB Tournament pits 16 of the top prospects at the position in this year’s draft in head-to-head matchups. Our…...
2019 Rookie WR Tournament: (1) N’Keal Harry vs. (16) Greg Dortch
Blair Andrews
April 23, 2019
In the first round of the 2019 RotoViz Rookie WR Tournament, top seed N’Keal Harry takes on 16th-seeded Greg Dortch. Can Dortch channel his inner UMBC, or will Harry live up to his top billing? The votes are in; keep reading to discover the results. Note from Curtis Patrick, RotoViz Dynasty Coordinator: The 2019 RotoViz Rookie WR Tournament pits 16 of the top prospects at…...
How Should We Measure College Breakouts? The Wrong Read, No. 55
Blair Andrews
April 3, 2019
Welcome to the 55th installment of The Wrong Read. We love breakouts at RotoViz. We want to target wide receiver prospects who break out in college, and especially those who break out early. The question then becomes, what should we count as a breakout? Breakout age is among the most important WR metrics apart from draft position — the skeleton key of WR prospect evaluation…....
Greg Dortch Is Small and Slow and I Don’t Care
Blair Andrews
April 1, 2019
Wake Forest wide receiver Greg Dortch is skipping his final two years of college eligibility to declare for the NFL draft. Is he someone dynasty owners should be paying attention to? There are reasons both for optimism and for restraint.[1]An older version of this article was published on January 11, 2019, before any athletic testing. Production First, the good news: Dortch was extremely productive at a…...
The Ultimate WR Prospect Metrics Guide: Which College Production Measurements Are the Most Predictive of NFL Success? – The Wrong Read, No. 54
Blair Andrews
February 8, 2019
Welcome to the 54th installment of The Wrong Read. We know that college production is more important than athleticism at the WR position, but what are the best and most predictive ways to measure that production? This article compares 45 different ways to measure college receiving production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
2019 NFL Draft Prospect: Greg Dortch
Blair Andrews
January 11, 2019
Wake Forest wide receiver Greg Dortch recently announced that he would forgo his final two years of college eligibility to declare for the NFL draft. Is he someone dynasty owners should be paying attention to? There are reasons both for optimism and for restraint…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
One Weird Trick for Finding Top WR Prospects: Early Declaration and Draft Age – The Wrong Read, No. 53
Blair Andrews
January 10, 2019
Welcome to the 53rd installment of The Wrong Read. Does draft age really matter for wide receiver prospects? The truth may surprise you — at least if you’ve been following this column for a little while. As Karl Popper put it, the most important evolutionary advantage of the argumentative use of language is that it “allows us to let theories die in our stead.” In…...
Good Players Are Good: Why You Should Chase Rookie-Year Efficiency at RB – The Wrong Read, No. 52
Blair Andrews
January 3, 2019
Welcome to the 52nd installment of The Wrong Read. Based on the number of articles appearing in this “weekly” series, one year has passed since we started. Strangely it’s taken about 16 months to get here. The thing is, time slows down as you approach a massive object like the black hole that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers football team. Ronald Jones is evidently on…...
Need Help in the Championship Round? Add a Williams: Using Expected Points to Inform Your Waiver Strategy
Blair Andrews
December 19, 2018
If you’ve made it to the fantasy championship round in your league, you likely have a strong team. Waivers and free agent pickups might not be your top priority. But workloads are always changing. Players you wouldn’t have rostered weeks ago are now attractive…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
Floor and Ceiling Projections and the Jets Franken-RB: Week 15 RB GLSP
Blair Andrews
December 14, 2018
Game-Level Similarity Projections (GLSP) use historical matchup, team, player, and Vegas lines to generate situation-agnostic projections. The result is a range of outcomes. The low projection is the 25th-percentile point total from the most similar matchups. The high projection is the 75th-percentile result…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
How the Cowboys Became a Team I Weirdly Want to Watch, and Other 2018 Mysteries: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 14
Blair Andrews
December 11, 2018
By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
Some WRs On the Verge of Bouncebacks, and Some, Maybe Not: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 13
Blair Andrews
December 6, 2018
By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
Concentrated Target Shares, Top Dynasty RBs, and Overvalued Receivers: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 12
Blair Andrews
November 30, 2018
By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
Rookie WRs Give Hope to Dynasty Owners: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 11
Blair Andrews
November 22, 2018
By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
Kerryon Johnson Is a Workhorse, and Other Insights from the RotoViz Player Usage App
Blair Andrews
November 17, 2018
In the offseason I noted that rookie RBs often outperform their ADPs, especially those drafted in the middle rounds. In the last few weeks, we’ve seen that come to fruition. The new RotoViz Player Usage App gives us a way to visualize this…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
Tight Ends Don’t Matter, Unless They’re Named Zach Ertz – What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 10
Blair Andrews
November 16, 2018
By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
Why You Shouldn’t Believe in Regression to the Mean (Sometimes): What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 9
Blair Andrews
November 8, 2018
By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
The Best Ever WR Duo and the Best Ever Receiving RB: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 8
Blair Andrews
October 30, 2018
By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
Historic Paces, WR Tandems, and Surprising Backfield Leaders: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 7
Blair Andrews
October 24, 2018
By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
4 RB Sleepers to Watch and 1 Early Pick Who’s Better Than You Think: 2019 Backfield Dominator Ratings
Blair Andrews
May 6, 2019
Last offseason I introduced a metric I called Backfield Dominator Rating (BDR). BDR measures the percentage of running back production that a college RB accounts for in his offense. In other words, it adjusts for offensive systems or for quarterbacks who, for whatever reason, don’t utilize RBs in the passing game.((And it also adjusts for teams that tend to use wide receivers in the running…...
2019 Rookie RB Tournament: (2) David Montgomery vs. (15) Travis Homer
Blair Andrews
April 23, 2019
In the first round of the 2019 RotoViz Rookie RB Tournament, second-seeded David Montgomery faces off against the 15 seed Travis Homer. Is Homer’s excellent combine enough to overcome Montgomery’s elite production? Find out below. Note from Curtis Patrick, RotoViz Dynasty Coordinator: The 2019 RotoViz Rookie RB Tournament pits 16 of the top prospects at the position in this year’s draft in head-to-head matchups. Our…...
2019 Rookie WR Tournament: (1) N’Keal Harry vs. (16) Greg Dortch
Blair Andrews
April 23, 2019
In the first round of the 2019 RotoViz Rookie WR Tournament, top seed N’Keal Harry takes on 16th-seeded Greg Dortch. Can Dortch channel his inner UMBC, or will Harry live up to his top billing? The votes are in; keep reading to discover the results. Note from Curtis Patrick, RotoViz Dynasty Coordinator: The 2019 RotoViz Rookie WR Tournament pits 16 of the top prospects at…...
How Should We Measure College Breakouts? The Wrong Read, No. 55
Blair Andrews
April 3, 2019
Welcome to the 55th installment of The Wrong Read. We love breakouts at RotoViz. We want to target wide receiver prospects who break out in college, and especially those who break out early. The question then becomes, what should we count as a breakout? Breakout age is among the most important WR metrics apart from draft position — the skeleton key of WR prospect evaluation…....
Greg Dortch Is Small and Slow and I Don’t Care
Blair Andrews
April 1, 2019
Wake Forest wide receiver Greg Dortch is skipping his final two years of college eligibility to declare for the NFL draft. Is he someone dynasty owners should be paying attention to? There are reasons both for optimism and for restraint.[1]An older version of this article was published on January 11, 2019, before any athletic testing. Production First, the good news: Dortch was extremely productive at a…...
The Ultimate WR Prospect Metrics Guide: Which College Production Measurements Are the Most Predictive of NFL Success? – The Wrong Read, No. 54
Blair Andrews
February 8, 2019
Welcome to the 54th installment of The Wrong Read. We know that college production is more important than athleticism at the WR position, but what are the best and most predictive ways to measure that production? This article compares 45 different ways to measure college receiving production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
2019 NFL Draft Prospect: Greg Dortch
Blair Andrews
January 11, 2019
Wake Forest wide receiver Greg Dortch recently announced that he would forgo his final two years of college eligibility to declare for the NFL draft. Is he someone dynasty owners should be paying attention to? There are reasons both for optimism and for restraint…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
One Weird Trick for Finding Top WR Prospects: Early Declaration and Draft Age – The Wrong Read, No. 53
Blair Andrews
January 10, 2019
Welcome to the 53rd installment of The Wrong Read. Does draft age really matter for wide receiver prospects? The truth may surprise you — at least if you’ve been following this column for a little while. As Karl Popper put it, the most important evolutionary advantage of the argumentative use of language is that it “allows us to let theories die in our stead.” In…...
Good Players Are Good: Why You Should Chase Rookie-Year Efficiency at RB – The Wrong Read, No. 52
Blair Andrews
January 3, 2019
Welcome to the 52nd installment of The Wrong Read. Based on the number of articles appearing in this “weekly” series, one year has passed since we started. Strangely it’s taken about 16 months to get here. The thing is, time slows down as you approach a massive object like the black hole that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers football team. Ronald Jones is evidently on…...
Need Help in the Championship Round? Add a Williams: Using Expected Points to Inform Your Waiver Strategy
Blair Andrews
December 19, 2018
If you’ve made it to the fantasy championship round in your league, you likely have a strong team. Waivers and free agent pickups might not be your top priority. But workloads are always changing. Players you wouldn’t have rostered weeks ago are now attractive…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
Floor and Ceiling Projections and the Jets Franken-RB: Week 15 RB GLSP
Blair Andrews
December 14, 2018
Game-Level Similarity Projections (GLSP) use historical matchup, team, player, and Vegas lines to generate situation-agnostic projections. The result is a range of outcomes. The low projection is the 25th-percentile point total from the most similar matchups. The high projection is the 75th-percentile result…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
How the Cowboys Became a Team I Weirdly Want to Watch, and Other 2018 Mysteries: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 14
Blair Andrews
December 11, 2018
By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
Some WRs On the Verge of Bouncebacks, and Some, Maybe Not: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 13
Blair Andrews
December 6, 2018
By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
Concentrated Target Shares, Top Dynasty RBs, and Overvalued Receivers: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 12
Blair Andrews
November 30, 2018
By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
Rookie WRs Give Hope to Dynasty Owners: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 11
Blair Andrews
November 22, 2018
By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
Kerryon Johnson Is a Workhorse, and Other Insights from the RotoViz Player Usage App
Blair Andrews
November 17, 2018
In the offseason I noted that rookie RBs often outperform their ADPs, especially those drafted in the middle rounds. In the last few weeks, we’ve seen that come to fruition. The new RotoViz Player Usage App gives us a way to visualize this…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
Tight Ends Don’t Matter, Unless They’re Named Zach Ertz – What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 10
Blair Andrews
November 16, 2018
By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
Why You Shouldn’t Believe in Regression to the Mean (Sometimes): What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 9
Blair Andrews
November 8, 2018
By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
The Best Ever WR Duo and the Best Ever Receiving RB: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 8
Blair Andrews
October 30, 2018
By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
Historic Paces, WR Tandems, and Surprising Backfield Leaders: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 7
Blair Andrews
October 24, 2018
By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
4 RB Sleepers to Watch and 1 Early Pick Who’s Better Than You Think: 2019 Backfield Dominator Ratings
Blair Andrews
May 6, 2019
Last offseason I introduced a metric I called Backfield Dominator Rating (BDR). BDR measures the percentage of running back production that a college RB accounts for in his offense. In other words, it adjusts for offensive systems or for quarterbacks who, for whatever reason, don’t utilize RBs in the passing game.((And it also adjusts for teams that tend to use wide receivers in the running…...
2019 Rookie RB Tournament: (2) David Montgomery vs. (15) Travis Homer
Blair Andrews
April 23, 2019
In the first round of the 2019 RotoViz Rookie RB Tournament, second-seeded David Montgomery faces off against the 15 seed Travis Homer. Is Homer’s excellent combine enough to overcome Montgomery’s elite production? Find out below. Note from Curtis Patrick, RotoViz Dynasty Coordinator: The 2019 RotoViz Rookie RB Tournament pits 16 of the top prospects at the position in this year’s draft in head-to-head matchups. Our…...
2019 Rookie WR Tournament: (1) N’Keal Harry vs. (16) Greg Dortch
Blair Andrews
April 23, 2019
In the first round of the 2019 RotoViz Rookie WR Tournament, top seed N’Keal Harry takes on 16th-seeded Greg Dortch. Can Dortch channel his inner UMBC, or will Harry live up to his top billing? The votes are in; keep reading to discover the results. Note from Curtis Patrick, RotoViz Dynasty Coordinator: The 2019 RotoViz Rookie WR Tournament pits 16 of the top prospects at…...
How Should We Measure College Breakouts? The Wrong Read, No. 55
Blair Andrews
April 3, 2019
Welcome to the 55th installment of The Wrong Read. We love breakouts at RotoViz. We want to target wide receiver prospects who break out in college, and especially those who break out early. The question then becomes, what should we count as a breakout? Breakout age is among the most important WR metrics apart from draft position — the skeleton key of WR prospect evaluation…....
Greg Dortch Is Small and Slow and I Don’t Care
Blair Andrews
April 1, 2019
Wake Forest wide receiver Greg Dortch is skipping his final two years of college eligibility to declare for the NFL draft. Is he someone dynasty owners should be paying attention to? There are reasons both for optimism and for restraint.[1]An older version of this article was published on January 11, 2019, before any athletic testing. Production First, the good news: Dortch was extremely productive at a…...
The Ultimate WR Prospect Metrics Guide: Which College Production Measurements Are the Most Predictive of NFL Success? – The Wrong Read, No. 54
Blair Andrews
February 8, 2019
Welcome to the 54th installment of The Wrong Read. We know that college production is more important than athleticism at the WR position, but what are the best and most predictive ways to measure that production? This article compares 45 different ways to measure college receiving production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
2019 NFL Draft Prospect: Greg Dortch
Blair Andrews
January 11, 2019
Wake Forest wide receiver Greg Dortch recently announced that he would forgo his final two years of college eligibility to declare for the NFL draft. Is he someone dynasty owners should be paying attention to? There are reasons both for optimism and for restraint…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
One Weird Trick for Finding Top WR Prospects: Early Declaration and Draft Age – The Wrong Read, No. 53
Blair Andrews
January 10, 2019
Welcome to the 53rd installment of The Wrong Read. Does draft age really matter for wide receiver prospects? The truth may surprise you — at least if you’ve been following this column for a little while. As Karl Popper put it, the most important evolutionary advantage of the argumentative use of language is that it “allows us to let theories die in our stead.” In…...
Good Players Are Good: Why You Should Chase Rookie-Year Efficiency at RB – The Wrong Read, No. 52
Blair Andrews
January 3, 2019
Welcome to the 52nd installment of The Wrong Read. Based on the number of articles appearing in this “weekly” series, one year has passed since we started. Strangely it’s taken about 16 months to get here. The thing is, time slows down as you approach a massive object like the black hole that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers football team. Ronald Jones is evidently on…...
Need Help in the Championship Round? Add a Williams: Using Expected Points to Inform Your Waiver Strategy
Blair Andrews
December 19, 2018
If you’ve made it to the fantasy championship round in your league, you likely have a strong team. Waivers and free agent pickups might not be your top priority. But workloads are always changing. Players you wouldn’t have rostered weeks ago are now attractive…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
Floor and Ceiling Projections and the Jets Franken-RB: Week 15 RB GLSP
Blair Andrews
December 14, 2018
Game-Level Similarity Projections (GLSP) use historical matchup, team, player, and Vegas lines to generate situation-agnostic projections. The result is a range of outcomes. The low projection is the 25th-percentile point total from the most similar matchups. The high projection is the 75th-percentile result…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
How the Cowboys Became a Team I Weirdly Want to Watch, and Other 2018 Mysteries: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 14
Blair Andrews
December 11, 2018
By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
Some WRs On the Verge of Bouncebacks, and Some, Maybe Not: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 13
Blair Andrews
December 6, 2018
By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
Concentrated Target Shares, Top Dynasty RBs, and Overvalued Receivers: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 12
Blair Andrews
November 30, 2018
By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
Rookie WRs Give Hope to Dynasty Owners: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 11
Blair Andrews
November 22, 2018
By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
Kerryon Johnson Is a Workhorse, and Other Insights from the RotoViz Player Usage App
Blair Andrews
November 17, 2018
In the offseason I noted that rookie RBs often outperform their ADPs, especially those drafted in the middle rounds. In the last few weeks, we’ve seen that come to fruition. The new RotoViz Player Usage App gives us a way to visualize this…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
Tight Ends Don’t Matter, Unless They’re Named Zach Ertz – What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 10
Blair Andrews
November 16, 2018
By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
Why You Shouldn’t Believe in Regression to the Mean (Sometimes): What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 9
Blair Andrews
November 8, 2018
By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
The Best Ever WR Duo and the Best Ever Receiving RB: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 8
Blair Andrews
October 30, 2018
By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
Historic Paces, WR Tandems, and Surprising Backfield Leaders: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 7
Blair Andrews
October 24, 2018
By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...
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