Blair Andrews

Managing Editor, Author of The Wrong Read, Occasional Fantasy Football League Winner. All opinions are someone else's.

Author Archive

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Market Share Leaders and the EP Double-Double: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 6

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Now Accepting Starting Lineup Applications: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 5

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Saquon Who? What Expected Points Are (Not) Telling Us After Week 4

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Nelson Agholor Is the Real Deal, and Other Funny Things Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 3

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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50 Unique Lineups for the Week 3 Yahoo! $500K Baller Because … the New RotoViz

Back in the glory days of DFS when entries to the Millionaire Maker had no limit and people built lineups by hand, Fantasy Douche put out a series of articles giving away an outrageous number of unique lineup combinations — 2,509, 3,601, 5,860, 7,308 — culminating in 10,000 unique lineups and a plea for a place to sleep. Gone are the days when you can…...

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Mark Andrews Is the Next George Kittle, Only More Efficient: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 2

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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D.J. Moore’s Breakout Is Really Happening: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 1

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Just Draft the Right Players: My Top Targets In Each Round

I’ve been in a handful of drafts this offseason with co-managers (including one with three other co-managers). One thing I’ve found myself doing in order to prepare to co-draft a fantasy team is to pick out my draft targets in each round. In most rounds there are only a handful of players I’m actually considering. So putting those targets down in writing has been helpful when strategizing…...

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Good Players Are Good, WR Edition: Why You Shouldn’t Fade Efficiency – The Wrong Read, No. 59

Welcome to the 59th installment of The Wrong Read. Last offseason we found that rookie year efficiency not only tends to persist for WRs, but also signals increased opportunity and fantasy scoring in subsequent seasons. And that’s not all. Efficiency is actually far more predictive than you’ve been told. Volume is king, or so they say. It’s true — nearly a truism — that opportunity…...

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Rookie RBs Are Still the Key to Winning at Fantasy: Win Rates and Opportunity Costs – The Wrong Read, No. 58

Welcome to the 58th installment of The Wrong Read. Last offseason I wrote about the advantage that drafting a rookie running back in the proper range can give you. Few players outperform ADP-based expectations more frequently or to a greater degree than rookie RBs going in Rounds 9-12. Today we update our numbers with 2018 data and look at the issue from a slightly different…...

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How to Win the Flex in 2019: Zero RB Is Set Up to Dominate Fantasy Drafts Yet Again

The Flex position is arguably the most important position in fantasy because it’s one of the easiest positions to generate more value over average than your opponents. Whatever strategy fits your particular league format, that strategy should be based on putting an elite player in the Flex position. That’s a quote from Shawn Siegele’s original article explaining why the Flex position wins championships. “Win the…...

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How to Win Your Scott Fish Bowl Draft: The SFB9 Game Log Explorer Has Some Strong Thoughts On Early TEs

Scott Fish Bowl 9 drafts are just days away. Unless you already play in another “half-PPR, half-point per first down, TE-premium, three flex, one superflex, achievement bonus league,” chances are you might be underprepared. Luckily, you can get a quick handle on how to approach your draft using our new (and free!) SFB9 Game Log Explorer app. One of the first questions worth answering is…...

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Year 2 Breakouts Still Happen Earlier (Well, Younger) Than You Think – The Wrong Read, No. 57

Welcome to the 57th installment of The Wrong Read. Filling your team with QBs and TEs (and RBs and WRs) entering Year 2 appears to be an easy way to improve your win rate. But obviously not every Year 2 player will break out. Simply loading up on players going into their second year does expose your team to massive breakout potential, but also to…...

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Just Pick Players: Win Your League With This Simple Onesie Selection Tactic – The Wrong Read, No. 56

Welcome to the 56th installment of The Wrong Read. Quarterback and tight end are the forgotten positions in fantasy, but they are probably more important than you think — you can win your best ball league simply by taking the right roster construction approach to these positions. At the end of the day though, you also have to pick players, and good process here can…...

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4 RB Sleepers to Watch and 1 Early Pick Who’s Better Than You Think: 2019 Backfield Dominator Ratings

  Last offseason I introduced a metric I called Backfield Dominator Rating (BDR). BDR measures the percentage of running back production that a college RB accounts for in his offense. In other words, it adjusts for offensive systems or for quarterbacks who, for whatever reason, don’t utilize RBs in the passing game.((And it also adjusts for teams that tend to use wide receivers in the running…...

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2019 Rookie RB Tournament: (2) David Montgomery vs. (15) Travis Homer

In the first round of the 2019 RotoViz Rookie RB Tournament, second-seeded David Montgomery faces off against the 15 seed Travis Homer. Is Homer’s excellent combine enough to overcome Montgomery’s elite production? Find out below. Note from Curtis Patrick, RotoViz Dynasty Coordinator: The 2019 RotoViz Rookie RB Tournament pits 16 of the top prospects at the position in this year’s draft in head-to-head matchups. Our…...

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2019 Rookie WR Tournament: (1) N’Keal Harry vs. (16) Greg Dortch

In the first round of the 2019 RotoViz Rookie WR Tournament, top seed N’Keal Harry takes on 16th-seeded Greg Dortch. Can Dortch channel his inner UMBC, or will Harry live up to his top billing? The votes are in; keep reading to discover the results.  Note from Curtis Patrick, RotoViz Dynasty Coordinator: The 2019 RotoViz Rookie WR Tournament pits 16 of the top prospects at…...

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How Should We Measure College Breakouts? The Wrong Read, No. 55

Welcome to the 55th installment of The Wrong Read. We love breakouts at RotoViz. We want to target wide receiver prospects who break out in college, and especially those who break out early. The question then becomes, what should we count as a breakout? Breakout age is among the most important WR metrics apart from draft position — the skeleton key of WR prospect evaluation…....

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Greg Dortch Is Small and Slow and I Don’t Care

Wake Forest wide receiver Greg Dortch is skipping his final two years of college eligibility to declare for the NFL draft. Is he someone dynasty owners should be paying attention to? There are reasons both for optimism and for restraint.[1]An older version of this article was published on January 11, 2019, before any athletic testing. Production First, the good news: Dortch was extremely productive at a…...

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The Ultimate WR Prospect Metrics Guide: Which College Production Measurements Are the Most Predictive of NFL Success? – The Wrong Read, No. 54

Welcome to the 54th installment of The Wrong Read. We know that college production is more important than athleticism at the WR position, but what are the best and most predictive ways to measure that production? This article compares 45 different ways to measure college receiving production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Market Share Leaders and the EP Double-Double: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 6

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Now Accepting Starting Lineup Applications: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 5

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Saquon Who? What Expected Points Are (Not) Telling Us After Week 4

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Nelson Agholor Is the Real Deal, and Other Funny Things Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 3

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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50 Unique Lineups for the Week 3 Yahoo! $500K Baller Because … the New RotoViz

Back in the glory days of DFS when entries to the Millionaire Maker had no limit and people built lineups by hand, Fantasy Douche put out a series of articles giving away an outrageous number of unique lineup combinations — 2,509, 3,601, 5,860, 7,308 — culminating in 10,000 unique lineups and a plea for a place to sleep. Gone are the days when you can…...

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Mark Andrews Is the Next George Kittle, Only More Efficient: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 2

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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D.J. Moore’s Breakout Is Really Happening: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 1

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Just Draft the Right Players: My Top Targets In Each Round

I’ve been in a handful of drafts this offseason with co-managers (including one with three other co-managers). One thing I’ve found myself doing in order to prepare to co-draft a fantasy team is to pick out my draft targets in each round. In most rounds there are only a handful of players I’m actually considering. So putting those targets down in writing has been helpful when strategizing…...

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Good Players Are Good, WR Edition: Why You Shouldn’t Fade Efficiency – The Wrong Read, No. 59

Welcome to the 59th installment of The Wrong Read. Last offseason we found that rookie year efficiency not only tends to persist for WRs, but also signals increased opportunity and fantasy scoring in subsequent seasons. And that’s not all. Efficiency is actually far more predictive than you’ve been told. Volume is king, or so they say. It’s true — nearly a truism — that opportunity…...

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Rookie RBs Are Still the Key to Winning at Fantasy: Win Rates and Opportunity Costs – The Wrong Read, No. 58

Welcome to the 58th installment of The Wrong Read. Last offseason I wrote about the advantage that drafting a rookie running back in the proper range can give you. Few players outperform ADP-based expectations more frequently or to a greater degree than rookie RBs going in Rounds 9-12. Today we update our numbers with 2018 data and look at the issue from a slightly different…...

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How to Win the Flex in 2019: Zero RB Is Set Up to Dominate Fantasy Drafts Yet Again

The Flex position is arguably the most important position in fantasy because it’s one of the easiest positions to generate more value over average than your opponents. Whatever strategy fits your particular league format, that strategy should be based on putting an elite player in the Flex position. That’s a quote from Shawn Siegele’s original article explaining why the Flex position wins championships. “Win the…...

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How to Win Your Scott Fish Bowl Draft: The SFB9 Game Log Explorer Has Some Strong Thoughts On Early TEs

Scott Fish Bowl 9 drafts are just days away. Unless you already play in another “half-PPR, half-point per first down, TE-premium, three flex, one superflex, achievement bonus league,” chances are you might be underprepared. Luckily, you can get a quick handle on how to approach your draft using our new (and free!) SFB9 Game Log Explorer app. One of the first questions worth answering is…...

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Year 2 Breakouts Still Happen Earlier (Well, Younger) Than You Think – The Wrong Read, No. 57

Welcome to the 57th installment of The Wrong Read. Filling your team with QBs and TEs (and RBs and WRs) entering Year 2 appears to be an easy way to improve your win rate. But obviously not every Year 2 player will break out. Simply loading up on players going into their second year does expose your team to massive breakout potential, but also to…...

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Just Pick Players: Win Your League With This Simple Onesie Selection Tactic – The Wrong Read, No. 56

Welcome to the 56th installment of The Wrong Read. Quarterback and tight end are the forgotten positions in fantasy, but they are probably more important than you think — you can win your best ball league simply by taking the right roster construction approach to these positions. At the end of the day though, you also have to pick players, and good process here can…...

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4 RB Sleepers to Watch and 1 Early Pick Who’s Better Than You Think: 2019 Backfield Dominator Ratings

  Last offseason I introduced a metric I called Backfield Dominator Rating (BDR). BDR measures the percentage of running back production that a college RB accounts for in his offense. In other words, it adjusts for offensive systems or for quarterbacks who, for whatever reason, don’t utilize RBs in the passing game.((And it also adjusts for teams that tend to use wide receivers in the running…...

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2019 Rookie RB Tournament: (2) David Montgomery vs. (15) Travis Homer

In the first round of the 2019 RotoViz Rookie RB Tournament, second-seeded David Montgomery faces off against the 15 seed Travis Homer. Is Homer’s excellent combine enough to overcome Montgomery’s elite production? Find out below. Note from Curtis Patrick, RotoViz Dynasty Coordinator: The 2019 RotoViz Rookie RB Tournament pits 16 of the top prospects at the position in this year’s draft in head-to-head matchups. Our…...

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2019 Rookie WR Tournament: (1) N’Keal Harry vs. (16) Greg Dortch

In the first round of the 2019 RotoViz Rookie WR Tournament, top seed N’Keal Harry takes on 16th-seeded Greg Dortch. Can Dortch channel his inner UMBC, or will Harry live up to his top billing? The votes are in; keep reading to discover the results.  Note from Curtis Patrick, RotoViz Dynasty Coordinator: The 2019 RotoViz Rookie WR Tournament pits 16 of the top prospects at…...

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How Should We Measure College Breakouts? The Wrong Read, No. 55

Welcome to the 55th installment of The Wrong Read. We love breakouts at RotoViz. We want to target wide receiver prospects who break out in college, and especially those who break out early. The question then becomes, what should we count as a breakout? Breakout age is among the most important WR metrics apart from draft position — the skeleton key of WR prospect evaluation…....

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Greg Dortch Is Small and Slow and I Don’t Care

Wake Forest wide receiver Greg Dortch is skipping his final two years of college eligibility to declare for the NFL draft. Is he someone dynasty owners should be paying attention to? There are reasons both for optimism and for restraint.[1]An older version of this article was published on January 11, 2019, before any athletic testing. Production First, the good news: Dortch was extremely productive at a…...

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The Ultimate WR Prospect Metrics Guide: Which College Production Measurements Are the Most Predictive of NFL Success? – The Wrong Read, No. 54

Welcome to the 54th installment of The Wrong Read. We know that college production is more important than athleticism at the WR position, but what are the best and most predictive ways to measure that production? This article compares 45 different ways to measure college receiving production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Market Share Leaders and the EP Double-Double: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 6

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Now Accepting Starting Lineup Applications: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 5

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Saquon Who? What Expected Points Are (Not) Telling Us After Week 4

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Nelson Agholor Is the Real Deal, and Other Funny Things Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 3

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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50 Unique Lineups for the Week 3 Yahoo! $500K Baller Because … the New RotoViz

Back in the glory days of DFS when entries to the Millionaire Maker had no limit and people built lineups by hand, Fantasy Douche put out a series of articles giving away an outrageous number of unique lineup combinations — 2,509, 3,601, 5,860, 7,308 — culminating in 10,000 unique lineups and a plea for a place to sleep. Gone are the days when you can…...

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Mark Andrews Is the Next George Kittle, Only More Efficient: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 2

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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D.J. Moore’s Breakout Is Really Happening: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 1

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Just Draft the Right Players: My Top Targets In Each Round

I’ve been in a handful of drafts this offseason with co-managers (including one with three other co-managers). One thing I’ve found myself doing in order to prepare to co-draft a fantasy team is to pick out my draft targets in each round. In most rounds there are only a handful of players I’m actually considering. So putting those targets down in writing has been helpful when strategizing…...

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Good Players Are Good, WR Edition: Why You Shouldn’t Fade Efficiency – The Wrong Read, No. 59

Welcome to the 59th installment of The Wrong Read. Last offseason we found that rookie year efficiency not only tends to persist for WRs, but also signals increased opportunity and fantasy scoring in subsequent seasons. And that’s not all. Efficiency is actually far more predictive than you’ve been told. Volume is king, or so they say. It’s true — nearly a truism — that opportunity…...

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Rookie RBs Are Still the Key to Winning at Fantasy: Win Rates and Opportunity Costs – The Wrong Read, No. 58

Welcome to the 58th installment of The Wrong Read. Last offseason I wrote about the advantage that drafting a rookie running back in the proper range can give you. Few players outperform ADP-based expectations more frequently or to a greater degree than rookie RBs going in Rounds 9-12. Today we update our numbers with 2018 data and look at the issue from a slightly different…...

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How to Win the Flex in 2019: Zero RB Is Set Up to Dominate Fantasy Drafts Yet Again

The Flex position is arguably the most important position in fantasy because it’s one of the easiest positions to generate more value over average than your opponents. Whatever strategy fits your particular league format, that strategy should be based on putting an elite player in the Flex position. That’s a quote from Shawn Siegele’s original article explaining why the Flex position wins championships. “Win the…...

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How to Win Your Scott Fish Bowl Draft: The SFB9 Game Log Explorer Has Some Strong Thoughts On Early TEs

Scott Fish Bowl 9 drafts are just days away. Unless you already play in another “half-PPR, half-point per first down, TE-premium, three flex, one superflex, achievement bonus league,” chances are you might be underprepared. Luckily, you can get a quick handle on how to approach your draft using our new (and free!) SFB9 Game Log Explorer app. One of the first questions worth answering is…...

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Year 2 Breakouts Still Happen Earlier (Well, Younger) Than You Think – The Wrong Read, No. 57

Welcome to the 57th installment of The Wrong Read. Filling your team with QBs and TEs (and RBs and WRs) entering Year 2 appears to be an easy way to improve your win rate. But obviously not every Year 2 player will break out. Simply loading up on players going into their second year does expose your team to massive breakout potential, but also to…...

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Just Pick Players: Win Your League With This Simple Onesie Selection Tactic – The Wrong Read, No. 56

Welcome to the 56th installment of The Wrong Read. Quarterback and tight end are the forgotten positions in fantasy, but they are probably more important than you think — you can win your best ball league simply by taking the right roster construction approach to these positions. At the end of the day though, you also have to pick players, and good process here can…...

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4 RB Sleepers to Watch and 1 Early Pick Who’s Better Than You Think: 2019 Backfield Dominator Ratings

  Last offseason I introduced a metric I called Backfield Dominator Rating (BDR). BDR measures the percentage of running back production that a college RB accounts for in his offense. In other words, it adjusts for offensive systems or for quarterbacks who, for whatever reason, don’t utilize RBs in the passing game.((And it also adjusts for teams that tend to use wide receivers in the running…...

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2019 Rookie RB Tournament: (2) David Montgomery vs. (15) Travis Homer

In the first round of the 2019 RotoViz Rookie RB Tournament, second-seeded David Montgomery faces off against the 15 seed Travis Homer. Is Homer’s excellent combine enough to overcome Montgomery’s elite production? Find out below. Note from Curtis Patrick, RotoViz Dynasty Coordinator: The 2019 RotoViz Rookie RB Tournament pits 16 of the top prospects at the position in this year’s draft in head-to-head matchups. Our…...

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2019 Rookie WR Tournament: (1) N’Keal Harry vs. (16) Greg Dortch

In the first round of the 2019 RotoViz Rookie WR Tournament, top seed N’Keal Harry takes on 16th-seeded Greg Dortch. Can Dortch channel his inner UMBC, or will Harry live up to his top billing? The votes are in; keep reading to discover the results.  Note from Curtis Patrick, RotoViz Dynasty Coordinator: The 2019 RotoViz Rookie WR Tournament pits 16 of the top prospects at…...

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How Should We Measure College Breakouts? The Wrong Read, No. 55

Welcome to the 55th installment of The Wrong Read. We love breakouts at RotoViz. We want to target wide receiver prospects who break out in college, and especially those who break out early. The question then becomes, what should we count as a breakout? Breakout age is among the most important WR metrics apart from draft position — the skeleton key of WR prospect evaluation…....

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Greg Dortch Is Small and Slow and I Don’t Care

Wake Forest wide receiver Greg Dortch is skipping his final two years of college eligibility to declare for the NFL draft. Is he someone dynasty owners should be paying attention to? There are reasons both for optimism and for restraint.[1]An older version of this article was published on January 11, 2019, before any athletic testing. Production First, the good news: Dortch was extremely productive at a…...

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The Ultimate WR Prospect Metrics Guide: Which College Production Measurements Are the Most Predictive of NFL Success? – The Wrong Read, No. 54

Welcome to the 54th installment of The Wrong Read. We know that college production is more important than athleticism at the WR position, but what are the best and most predictive ways to measure that production? This article compares 45 different ways to measure college receiving production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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