Blair Andrews

Managing Editor, Author of The Wrong Read, Occasional Fantasy Football League Winner. All opinions are someone else's.

Author Archive

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

The Best Rookie Running Back Landing Spots: Vacated RB Expected Points

The early portions of 2020 rookie drafts are expected to be filled with exciting running backs. But the outlooks for our favorite backs depend a lot on which teams draft them. One straightforward way to determine which landing spots are best is to look at which teams have the most available opportunity. In what follows, I’ll explore vacated RB expected points (EP) to find the…...

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Could We Be Underestimating the 2020 Running Back Class? The Backfield Dominator Rating Finds 4 Steals Beyond the 5 Flashy Names

The 2020 class of running backs has several prospects that excite fantasy owners. Surprisingly, the scouting community is less enthusiastic. Many mock drafts do not have a single RB being picked in the first round. Many of our favorite backs figure to be Day 3 selections. However, we know the NFL Draft is not an efficient market for extrapolating fantasy value. In the first volume…...

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The Paradox of Jalen Reagor and the Problem of WR Speed: A 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile

The 2020 wide receiver class is famous for its glut of elite prospects, with seven different receivers expected to be first rounders, according to Grinding the Mocks. One of those outside the first round is Jalen Reagor. Yet many aspects of Reagor’s profile make him look like he deserves to be at the top of the rankings. Is it possible to be sleeping on a player…...

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Does Hand Size Matter for Wide Receivers? The Wrong Read, No. 61

Welcome to the 61st installment of The Wrong Read. Shawn Siegele’s recent article on 2020 Freak Scores linked to some classic work by Fantasy Douche that renewed my interest in wide receiver hand size. We know, on the one hand, that production is all that matters for WRs. But on the other hand, that last sentence can’t possibly be literally true. So the question is,…...

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Justin Jefferson Is the Only Rookie WR Who Checks Every Box: A 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile

Coming off a national title win, Justin Jefferson chose to declare for the NFL Draft instead of returning for his senior season. He enters after a true junior season that saw him catch 111 passes for over 1,500 receiving yards and 18 receiving touchdowns. He’s not the top WR in nearly anyone’s rankings, but if we put his production in some context, he’s got a…...

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Which WR Prospect Metrics Tell Us Something Unique? The Wrong Read, No. 60

I seem to have become obsessed with correlation matrices, so I’m just going to lean into it. Below you’ll find a correlation matrix with many of our favorite WR prospect evaluation metrics. This is admittedly a simplistic way to look at the predictiveness of various metrics. But there are a number of interesting things going on here, which I’ll point out below. Keep in mind…...

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How to Use Expected Points in the Offseason: 4 More Correlation Matrices

Last week I looked at a variety of Expected-Points-based metrics to determine which were the most stable from one week to the next and which were the most predictive of fantasy scoring in future weeks. However, fantasy football is not only a weekly game — in most formats your lineup won’t vary much from one week to the next. Also, for most of our fantasy…...

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Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 16 – Miles Sanders Is a “Buy High” Candidate

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for the most contentious NFC backfields ahead of Week 16. Every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether their owners drafted them as Zero-RB squads or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and…...

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Why Do We Care About Expected Points? An Explanation in 4 Correlation Matrices

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 15 – He’s No Austin Ekeler, But Can Darwin Thompson Be the Guy for KC?

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for the most contentious AFC backfields ahead of Week 15. Almost every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether they were drafted as a Zero-RB squad or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying…...

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3 Rookies Become Year 2 Breakout Candidates: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 14

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 14 – Derrius Guice Gives Washington Hope, and Other NFC Battles to Watch

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for the most contentious NFC backfields ahead of Week 14. Every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether their owners drafted them as Zero-RB squads or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and…...

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Scoreless Streaks and Second-Year Breakouts: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 13

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 13, Backfield Battles Edition – Jonathan Williams Looks Just Like Marlon Mack In Every Way But One

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for the most contentious AFC backfields ahead of Week 13. By now, a lot of backfield workload splits are pretty clear, or dominated by workhorse RBs. But there are still a handful of battles raging that present opportunities for savvy fantasy owners. We’ll use the RotoViz Screener and the NFL Stat Explorer to dive into the Week 12…...

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2 RBs Battle for the No. 1 Overall Pick and Rookie WRs Battle to Be the Next Breakout: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 12

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 12 – Tarik Cohen Is Still an NFL Player

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for every NFC backfield ahead of Week 12. Every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether their owners drafted them as Zero-RB squads or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and selling based…...

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(Not) Surprising Breakouts and New Career Highs: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 11

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 11 – Patrick Laird SZN! (Oh, and Kareem Hunt Is Back, Austin Ekeler Is Still Good, and Derrick Henry Did Some Stuff)

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for every AFC backfield ahead of Week 11. Almost every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether they were drafted as a Zero-RB squad or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and selling…...

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Nick Chubb Almost Destroys Week 10 and Christian McCaffrey Actually Destroys Everyone Else’s Fantasy Teams: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 10

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 10 – Ronald Jones Truthers Are Vindicated and Rashaad Penny Truthers Rethink Their Life Decisions

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for every NFC backfield ahead of Week 10. Every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether their owners drafted them as Zero-RB squads or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and selling based…...

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The Best Rookie Running Back Landing Spots: Vacated RB Expected Points

The early portions of 2020 rookie drafts are expected to be filled with exciting running backs. But the outlooks for our favorite backs depend a lot on which teams draft them. One straightforward way to determine which landing spots are best is to look at which teams have the most available opportunity. In what follows, I’ll explore vacated RB expected points (EP) to find the…...

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Could We Be Underestimating the 2020 Running Back Class? The Backfield Dominator Rating Finds 4 Steals Beyond the 5 Flashy Names

The 2020 class of running backs has several prospects that excite fantasy owners. Surprisingly, the scouting community is less enthusiastic. Many mock drafts do not have a single RB being picked in the first round. Many of our favorite backs figure to be Day 3 selections. However, we know the NFL Draft is not an efficient market for extrapolating fantasy value. In the first volume…...

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The Paradox of Jalen Reagor and the Problem of WR Speed: A 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile

The 2020 wide receiver class is famous for its glut of elite prospects, with seven different receivers expected to be first rounders, according to Grinding the Mocks. One of those outside the first round is Jalen Reagor. Yet many aspects of Reagor’s profile make him look like he deserves to be at the top of the rankings. Is it possible to be sleeping on a player…...

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Does Hand Size Matter for Wide Receivers? The Wrong Read, No. 61

Welcome to the 61st installment of The Wrong Read. Shawn Siegele’s recent article on 2020 Freak Scores linked to some classic work by Fantasy Douche that renewed my interest in wide receiver hand size. We know, on the one hand, that production is all that matters for WRs. But on the other hand, that last sentence can’t possibly be literally true. So the question is,…...

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Justin Jefferson Is the Only Rookie WR Who Checks Every Box: A 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile

Coming off a national title win, Justin Jefferson chose to declare for the NFL Draft instead of returning for his senior season. He enters after a true junior season that saw him catch 111 passes for over 1,500 receiving yards and 18 receiving touchdowns. He’s not the top WR in nearly anyone’s rankings, but if we put his production in some context, he’s got a…...

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Which WR Prospect Metrics Tell Us Something Unique? The Wrong Read, No. 60

I seem to have become obsessed with correlation matrices, so I’m just going to lean into it. Below you’ll find a correlation matrix with many of our favorite WR prospect evaluation metrics. This is admittedly a simplistic way to look at the predictiveness of various metrics. But there are a number of interesting things going on here, which I’ll point out below. Keep in mind…...

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How to Use Expected Points in the Offseason: 4 More Correlation Matrices

Last week I looked at a variety of Expected-Points-based metrics to determine which were the most stable from one week to the next and which were the most predictive of fantasy scoring in future weeks. However, fantasy football is not only a weekly game — in most formats your lineup won’t vary much from one week to the next. Also, for most of our fantasy…...

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Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 16 – Miles Sanders Is a “Buy High” Candidate

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for the most contentious NFC backfields ahead of Week 16. Every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether their owners drafted them as Zero-RB squads or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and…...

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Why Do We Care About Expected Points? An Explanation in 4 Correlation Matrices

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 15 – He’s No Austin Ekeler, But Can Darwin Thompson Be the Guy for KC?

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for the most contentious AFC backfields ahead of Week 15. Almost every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether they were drafted as a Zero-RB squad or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying…...

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3 Rookies Become Year 2 Breakout Candidates: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 14

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 14 – Derrius Guice Gives Washington Hope, and Other NFC Battles to Watch

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for the most contentious NFC backfields ahead of Week 14. Every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether their owners drafted them as Zero-RB squads or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and…...

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Scoreless Streaks and Second-Year Breakouts: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 13

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 13, Backfield Battles Edition – Jonathan Williams Looks Just Like Marlon Mack In Every Way But One

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for the most contentious AFC backfields ahead of Week 13. By now, a lot of backfield workload splits are pretty clear, or dominated by workhorse RBs. But there are still a handful of battles raging that present opportunities for savvy fantasy owners. We’ll use the RotoViz Screener and the NFL Stat Explorer to dive into the Week 12…...

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2 RBs Battle for the No. 1 Overall Pick and Rookie WRs Battle to Be the Next Breakout: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 12

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 12 – Tarik Cohen Is Still an NFL Player

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for every NFC backfield ahead of Week 12. Every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether their owners drafted them as Zero-RB squads or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and selling based…...

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(Not) Surprising Breakouts and New Career Highs: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 11

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 11 – Patrick Laird SZN! (Oh, and Kareem Hunt Is Back, Austin Ekeler Is Still Good, and Derrick Henry Did Some Stuff)

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for every AFC backfield ahead of Week 11. Almost every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether they were drafted as a Zero-RB squad or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and selling…...

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Nick Chubb Almost Destroys Week 10 and Christian McCaffrey Actually Destroys Everyone Else’s Fantasy Teams: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 10

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 10 – Ronald Jones Truthers Are Vindicated and Rashaad Penny Truthers Rethink Their Life Decisions

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for every NFC backfield ahead of Week 10. Every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether their owners drafted them as Zero-RB squads or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and selling based…...

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The Best Rookie Running Back Landing Spots: Vacated RB Expected Points

The early portions of 2020 rookie drafts are expected to be filled with exciting running backs. But the outlooks for our favorite backs depend a lot on which teams draft them. One straightforward way to determine which landing spots are best is to look at which teams have the most available opportunity. In what follows, I’ll explore vacated RB expected points (EP) to find the…...

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Could We Be Underestimating the 2020 Running Back Class? The Backfield Dominator Rating Finds 4 Steals Beyond the 5 Flashy Names

The 2020 class of running backs has several prospects that excite fantasy owners. Surprisingly, the scouting community is less enthusiastic. Many mock drafts do not have a single RB being picked in the first round. Many of our favorite backs figure to be Day 3 selections. However, we know the NFL Draft is not an efficient market for extrapolating fantasy value. In the first volume…...

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The Paradox of Jalen Reagor and the Problem of WR Speed: A 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile

The 2020 wide receiver class is famous for its glut of elite prospects, with seven different receivers expected to be first rounders, according to Grinding the Mocks. One of those outside the first round is Jalen Reagor. Yet many aspects of Reagor’s profile make him look like he deserves to be at the top of the rankings. Is it possible to be sleeping on a player…...

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Does Hand Size Matter for Wide Receivers? The Wrong Read, No. 61

Welcome to the 61st installment of The Wrong Read. Shawn Siegele’s recent article on 2020 Freak Scores linked to some classic work by Fantasy Douche that renewed my interest in wide receiver hand size. We know, on the one hand, that production is all that matters for WRs. But on the other hand, that last sentence can’t possibly be literally true. So the question is,…...

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Justin Jefferson Is the Only Rookie WR Who Checks Every Box: A 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile

Coming off a national title win, Justin Jefferson chose to declare for the NFL Draft instead of returning for his senior season. He enters after a true junior season that saw him catch 111 passes for over 1,500 receiving yards and 18 receiving touchdowns. He’s not the top WR in nearly anyone’s rankings, but if we put his production in some context, he’s got a…...

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Which WR Prospect Metrics Tell Us Something Unique? The Wrong Read, No. 60

I seem to have become obsessed with correlation matrices, so I’m just going to lean into it. Below you’ll find a correlation matrix with many of our favorite WR prospect evaluation metrics. This is admittedly a simplistic way to look at the predictiveness of various metrics. But there are a number of interesting things going on here, which I’ll point out below. Keep in mind…...

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How to Use Expected Points in the Offseason: 4 More Correlation Matrices

Last week I looked at a variety of Expected-Points-based metrics to determine which were the most stable from one week to the next and which were the most predictive of fantasy scoring in future weeks. However, fantasy football is not only a weekly game — in most formats your lineup won’t vary much from one week to the next. Also, for most of our fantasy…...

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Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 16 – Miles Sanders Is a “Buy High” Candidate

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for the most contentious NFC backfields ahead of Week 16. Every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether their owners drafted them as Zero-RB squads or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and…...

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Why Do We Care About Expected Points? An Explanation in 4 Correlation Matrices

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 15 – He’s No Austin Ekeler, But Can Darwin Thompson Be the Guy for KC?

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for the most contentious AFC backfields ahead of Week 15. Almost every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether they were drafted as a Zero-RB squad or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying…...

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3 Rookies Become Year 2 Breakout Candidates: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 14

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 14 – Derrius Guice Gives Washington Hope, and Other NFC Battles to Watch

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for the most contentious NFC backfields ahead of Week 14. Every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether their owners drafted them as Zero-RB squads or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and…...

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Scoreless Streaks and Second-Year Breakouts: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 13

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 13, Backfield Battles Edition – Jonathan Williams Looks Just Like Marlon Mack In Every Way But One

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for the most contentious AFC backfields ahead of Week 13. By now, a lot of backfield workload splits are pretty clear, or dominated by workhorse RBs. But there are still a handful of battles raging that present opportunities for savvy fantasy owners. We’ll use the RotoViz Screener and the NFL Stat Explorer to dive into the Week 12…...

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2 RBs Battle for the No. 1 Overall Pick and Rookie WRs Battle to Be the Next Breakout: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 12

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 12 – Tarik Cohen Is Still an NFL Player

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for every NFC backfield ahead of Week 12. Every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether their owners drafted them as Zero-RB squads or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and selling based…...

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(Not) Surprising Breakouts and New Career Highs: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 11

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 11 – Patrick Laird SZN! (Oh, and Kareem Hunt Is Back, Austin Ekeler Is Still Good, and Derrick Henry Did Some Stuff)

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for every AFC backfield ahead of Week 11. Almost every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether they were drafted as a Zero-RB squad or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and selling…...

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Nick Chubb Almost Destroys Week 10 and Christian McCaffrey Actually Destroys Everyone Else’s Fantasy Teams: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 10

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 10 – Ronald Jones Truthers Are Vindicated and Rashaad Penny Truthers Rethink Their Life Decisions

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for every NFC backfield ahead of Week 10. Every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether their owners drafted them as Zero-RB squads or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and selling based…...

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