Blair Andrews

Managing Editor, Author of The Wrong Read, Occasional Fantasy Football League Winner. All opinions are someone else's.

Author Archive

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

The Exploitable Relationship Between WR Age and Opportunity Is One of the Biggest Edges in Fantasy – The Wrong Read, No. 63

WARNING: unbalanced footnote start tag short code found.If this warning is irrelevant, please disable the syntax validation feature in the dashboard under General settings > Footnote start and end short codes > Check for balanced shortcodes.Unbalanced start tag short code found before:“Only two of… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here”Much of the research...

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Tight End Is the New Running Back: How to Benefit from Injury Risk in the Scott Fish Bowl (and Elsewhere)

Last week I published an article recommending a TEx5 start to your Scott Fish Bowl drafts. This week we added SFBX scoring settings to the Win the Flex app, and it disagreed with my take in no uncertain terms. According to the Win the Flex numbers (using SFBX scoring and FFPC Superflex ADP), tight ends don’t become the best pick until about the eighth round…....

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Zero Everything But Tight End: Using the Scott Fish Bowl Points Explorer to Find the Optimal Superflex Strategy

The Scott Fish Bowl is one of my favorite leagues every year. Not only does it help raise money for Fantasy Cares to support various charities, but it also always has among the most interesting scoring and roster settings. The league has typical 1-QB, 2-RB, 3-WR, 1-TE starting lineup requirements, but the addition of four flex spots, including one Superflex, adds several wrinkles. Tight-end-premium scoring…...

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Drafters Are Still Chasing the Wrong Things When Targeting Second-Year Running Backs – The Wrong Read, No. 62

Players entering Year 2 are among the best investments you can make in your fantasy drafts. So how do you predict who will be the top second-year RBs? Last offseason, I wrote that, contrary to what you may have heard, we want to chase efficiency at the RB position. Specifically, rookie-year efficiency appears to be a sign of good things to come. It turns out…...

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Onesie Position Tactics Are Even More Important in Superflex Best Ball Leagues: Tight Ends Will Determine Your Fate

Last time we looked at how to approach the quarterback position in FFPC Superflex best ball leagues. We used the FFPC Roster Construction Explorer to uncover a near cheat code that returned a 16% win rate (albeit on a relatively small sample). QB is certainly one of the most important positions to get right in Superflex leagues. But there’s another position that might be almost…...

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How You Draft Quarterbacks Can Determine Your Fate in Superflex Best Ball Leagues

Getting the quarterback position right in best ball leagues is one of the easiest and most effective ways to gain an advantage. Simply picking the right number of QBs in the right rounds gives you an immediate edge, before we even get to the problem of individual player selection. But what if you’re in a Superflex best ball draft? The FFPC has offered Superflex best…...

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5 Veterans Who Won the 2020 NFL Draft

The NFL Draft shook up a number of depth charts. Many veterans whose roles looked secure now have questionable futures. But on the flip side, many veterans whose futures were in doubt leading up to the draft dodged a bullet. Several teams were expected to add to their depth charts at various positions, but many chose not to. Which players had the biggest wins because…...

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The Best Rookie Running Back Landing Spots: Vacated RB Expected Points

The early portions of 2020 rookie drafts are expected to be filled with exciting running backs. But the outlooks for our favorite backs depend a lot on which teams draft them. One straightforward way to determine which landing spots are best is to look at which teams have the most available opportunity. In what follows, I’ll explore vacated RB expected points (EP) to find the…...

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Could We Be Underestimating the 2020 Running Back Class? The Backfield Dominator Rating Finds 4 Steals Beyond the 5 Flashy Names

The 2020 class of running backs has several prospects that excite fantasy owners. Surprisingly, the scouting community is less enthusiastic. Many mock drafts do not have a single RB being picked in the first round. Many of our favorite backs figure to be Day 3 selections. However, we know the NFL Draft is not an efficient market for extrapolating fantasy value. In the first volume…...

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The Paradox of Jalen Reagor and the Problem of WR Speed: A 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile

The 2020 wide receiver class is famous for its glut of elite prospects, with seven different receivers expected to be first rounders, according to Grinding the Mocks. One of those outside the first round is Jalen Reagor. Yet many aspects of Reagor’s profile make him look like he deserves to be at the top of the rankings. Is it possible to be sleeping on a player…...

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Does Hand Size Matter for Wide Receivers? The Wrong Read, No. 61

Welcome to the 61st installment of The Wrong Read. Shawn Siegele’s recent article on 2020 Freak Scores linked to some classic work by Fantasy Douche that renewed my interest in wide receiver hand size. We know, on the one hand, that production is all that matters for WRs. But on the other hand, that last sentence can’t possibly be literally true. So the question is,…...

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Justin Jefferson Is the Only Rookie WR Who Checks Every Box: A 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile

Coming off a national title win, Justin Jefferson chose to declare for the NFL Draft instead of returning for his senior season. He enters after a true junior season that saw him catch 111 passes for over 1,500 receiving yards and 18 receiving touchdowns. He’s not the top WR in nearly anyone’s rankings, but if we put his production in some context, he’s got a…...

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Which WR Prospect Metrics Tell Us Something Unique? The Wrong Read, No. 60

I seem to have become obsessed with correlation matrices, so I’m just going to lean into it. Below you’ll find a correlation matrix with many of our favorite WR prospect evaluation metrics. This is admittedly a simplistic way to look at the predictiveness of various metrics. But there are a number of interesting things going on here, which I’ll point out below. Keep in mind…...

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How to Use Expected Points in the Offseason: 4 More Correlation Matrices

Last week I looked at a variety of Expected-Points-based metrics to determine which were the most stable from one week to the next and which were the most predictive of fantasy scoring in future weeks. However, fantasy football is not only a weekly game — in most formats your lineup won’t vary much from one week to the next. Also, for most of our fantasy…...

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Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 16 – Miles Sanders Is a “Buy High” Candidate

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for the most contentious NFC backfields ahead of Week 16. Every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether their owners drafted them as Zero-RB squads or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and…...

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Why Do We Care About Expected Points? An Explanation in 4 Correlation Matrices

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 15 – He’s No Austin Ekeler, But Can Darwin Thompson Be the Guy for KC?

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for the most contentious AFC backfields ahead of Week 15. Almost every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether they were drafted as a Zero-RB squad or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying…...

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3 Rookies Become Year 2 Breakout Candidates: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 14

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 14 – Derrius Guice Gives Washington Hope, and Other NFC Battles to Watch

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for the most contentious NFC backfields ahead of Week 14. Every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether their owners drafted them as Zero-RB squads or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and…...

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Scoreless Streaks and Second-Year Breakouts: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 13

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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The Exploitable Relationship Between WR Age and Opportunity Is One of the Biggest Edges in Fantasy – The Wrong Read, No. 63

Much of the research that happens in this space suggests our fantasy teams should nearly always be younger than we tend to think. Breakouts and busts both happen earlier in players’ careers than the traditional age curves would lead you to believe. Although it’s true that many of best WRs in the NFL last year were somewhere between 25 and 30 years old,((Only two of…...

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Tight End Is the New Running Back: How to Benefit from Injury Risk in the Scott Fish Bowl (and Elsewhere)

Last week I published an article recommending a TEx5 start to your Scott Fish Bowl drafts. This week we added SFBX scoring settings to the Win the Flex app, and it disagreed with my take in no uncertain terms. According to the Win the Flex numbers (using SFBX scoring and FFPC Superflex ADP), tight ends don’t become the best pick until about the eighth round…....

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Zero Everything But Tight End: Using the Scott Fish Bowl Points Explorer to Find the Optimal Superflex Strategy

The Scott Fish Bowl is one of my favorite leagues every year. Not only does it help raise money for Fantasy Cares to support various charities, but it also always has among the most interesting scoring and roster settings. The league has typical 1-QB, 2-RB, 3-WR, 1-TE starting lineup requirements, but the addition of four flex spots, including one Superflex, adds several wrinkles. Tight-end-premium scoring…...

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Drafters Are Still Chasing the Wrong Things When Targeting Second-Year Running Backs – The Wrong Read, No. 62

Players entering Year 2 are among the best investments you can make in your fantasy drafts. So how do you predict who will be the top second-year RBs? Last offseason, I wrote that, contrary to what you may have heard, we want to chase efficiency at the RB position. Specifically, rookie-year efficiency appears to be a sign of good things to come. It turns out…...

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Onesie Position Tactics Are Even More Important in Superflex Best Ball Leagues: Tight Ends Will Determine Your Fate

Last time we looked at how to approach the quarterback position in FFPC Superflex best ball leagues. We used the FFPC Roster Construction Explorer to uncover a near cheat code that returned a 16% win rate (albeit on a relatively small sample). QB is certainly one of the most important positions to get right in Superflex leagues. But there’s another position that might be almost…...

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How You Draft Quarterbacks Can Determine Your Fate in Superflex Best Ball Leagues

Getting the quarterback position right in best ball leagues is one of the easiest and most effective ways to gain an advantage. Simply picking the right number of QBs in the right rounds gives you an immediate edge, before we even get to the problem of individual player selection. But what if you’re in a Superflex best ball draft? The FFPC has offered Superflex best…...

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5 Veterans Who Won the 2020 NFL Draft

The NFL Draft shook up a number of depth charts. Many veterans whose roles looked secure now have questionable futures. But on the flip side, many veterans whose futures were in doubt leading up to the draft dodged a bullet. Several teams were expected to add to their depth charts at various positions, but many chose not to. Which players had the biggest wins because…...

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The Best Rookie Running Back Landing Spots: Vacated RB Expected Points

The early portions of 2020 rookie drafts are expected to be filled with exciting running backs. But the outlooks for our favorite backs depend a lot on which teams draft them. One straightforward way to determine which landing spots are best is to look at which teams have the most available opportunity. In what follows, I’ll explore vacated RB expected points (EP) to find the…...

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Could We Be Underestimating the 2020 Running Back Class? The Backfield Dominator Rating Finds 4 Steals Beyond the 5 Flashy Names

The 2020 class of running backs has several prospects that excite fantasy owners. Surprisingly, the scouting community is less enthusiastic. Many mock drafts do not have a single RB being picked in the first round. Many of our favorite backs figure to be Day 3 selections. However, we know the NFL Draft is not an efficient market for extrapolating fantasy value. In the first volume…...

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The Paradox of Jalen Reagor and the Problem of WR Speed: A 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile

The 2020 wide receiver class is famous for its glut of elite prospects, with seven different receivers expected to be first rounders, according to Grinding the Mocks. One of those outside the first round is Jalen Reagor. Yet many aspects of Reagor’s profile make him look like he deserves to be at the top of the rankings. Is it possible to be sleeping on a player…...

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Does Hand Size Matter for Wide Receivers? The Wrong Read, No. 61

Welcome to the 61st installment of The Wrong Read. Shawn Siegele’s recent article on 2020 Freak Scores linked to some classic work by Fantasy Douche that renewed my interest in wide receiver hand size. We know, on the one hand, that production is all that matters for WRs. But on the other hand, that last sentence can’t possibly be literally true. So the question is,…...

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Justin Jefferson Is the Only Rookie WR Who Checks Every Box: A 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile

Coming off a national title win, Justin Jefferson chose to declare for the NFL Draft instead of returning for his senior season. He enters after a true junior season that saw him catch 111 passes for over 1,500 receiving yards and 18 receiving touchdowns. He’s not the top WR in nearly anyone’s rankings, but if we put his production in some context, he’s got a…...

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Which WR Prospect Metrics Tell Us Something Unique? The Wrong Read, No. 60

I seem to have become obsessed with correlation matrices, so I’m just going to lean into it. Below you’ll find a correlation matrix with many of our favorite WR prospect evaluation metrics. This is admittedly a simplistic way to look at the predictiveness of various metrics. But there are a number of interesting things going on here, which I’ll point out below. Keep in mind…...

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How to Use Expected Points in the Offseason: 4 More Correlation Matrices

Last week I looked at a variety of Expected-Points-based metrics to determine which were the most stable from one week to the next and which were the most predictive of fantasy scoring in future weeks. However, fantasy football is not only a weekly game — in most formats your lineup won’t vary much from one week to the next. Also, for most of our fantasy…...

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Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 16 – Miles Sanders Is a “Buy High” Candidate

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for the most contentious NFC backfields ahead of Week 16. Every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether their owners drafted them as Zero-RB squads or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and…...

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Why Do We Care About Expected Points? An Explanation in 4 Correlation Matrices

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 15 – He’s No Austin Ekeler, But Can Darwin Thompson Be the Guy for KC?

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for the most contentious AFC backfields ahead of Week 15. Almost every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether they were drafted as a Zero-RB squad or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying…...

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3 Rookies Become Year 2 Breakout Candidates: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 14

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 14 – Derrius Guice Gives Washington Hope, and Other NFC Battles to Watch

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for the most contentious NFC backfields ahead of Week 14. Every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether their owners drafted them as Zero-RB squads or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and…...

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Scoreless Streaks and Second-Year Breakouts: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 13

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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The Exploitable Relationship Between WR Age and Opportunity Is One of the Biggest Edges in Fantasy – The Wrong Read, No. 63

Much of the research that happens in this space suggests our fantasy teams should nearly always be younger than we tend to think. Breakouts and busts both happen earlier in players’ careers than the traditional age curves would lead you to believe. Although it’s true that many of best WRs in the NFL last year were somewhere between 25 and 30 years old,((Only two of…...

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Tight End Is the New Running Back: How to Benefit from Injury Risk in the Scott Fish Bowl (and Elsewhere)

Last week I published an article recommending a TEx5 start to your Scott Fish Bowl drafts. This week we added SFBX scoring settings to the Win the Flex app, and it disagreed with my take in no uncertain terms. According to the Win the Flex numbers (using SFBX scoring and FFPC Superflex ADP), tight ends don’t become the best pick until about the eighth round…....

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Zero Everything But Tight End: Using the Scott Fish Bowl Points Explorer to Find the Optimal Superflex Strategy

The Scott Fish Bowl is one of my favorite leagues every year. Not only does it help raise money for Fantasy Cares to support various charities, but it also always has among the most interesting scoring and roster settings. The league has typical 1-QB, 2-RB, 3-WR, 1-TE starting lineup requirements, but the addition of four flex spots, including one Superflex, adds several wrinkles. Tight-end-premium scoring…...

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Drafters Are Still Chasing the Wrong Things When Targeting Second-Year Running Backs – The Wrong Read, No. 62

Players entering Year 2 are among the best investments you can make in your fantasy drafts. So how do you predict who will be the top second-year RBs? Last offseason, I wrote that, contrary to what you may have heard, we want to chase efficiency at the RB position. Specifically, rookie-year efficiency appears to be a sign of good things to come. It turns out…...

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Onesie Position Tactics Are Even More Important in Superflex Best Ball Leagues: Tight Ends Will Determine Your Fate

Last time we looked at how to approach the quarterback position in FFPC Superflex best ball leagues. We used the FFPC Roster Construction Explorer to uncover a near cheat code that returned a 16% win rate (albeit on a relatively small sample). QB is certainly one of the most important positions to get right in Superflex leagues. But there’s another position that might be almost…...

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How You Draft Quarterbacks Can Determine Your Fate in Superflex Best Ball Leagues

Getting the quarterback position right in best ball leagues is one of the easiest and most effective ways to gain an advantage. Simply picking the right number of QBs in the right rounds gives you an immediate edge, before we even get to the problem of individual player selection. But what if you’re in a Superflex best ball draft? The FFPC has offered Superflex best…...

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5 Veterans Who Won the 2020 NFL Draft

The NFL Draft shook up a number of depth charts. Many veterans whose roles looked secure now have questionable futures. But on the flip side, many veterans whose futures were in doubt leading up to the draft dodged a bullet. Several teams were expected to add to their depth charts at various positions, but many chose not to. Which players had the biggest wins because…...

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The Best Rookie Running Back Landing Spots: Vacated RB Expected Points

The early portions of 2020 rookie drafts are expected to be filled with exciting running backs. But the outlooks for our favorite backs depend a lot on which teams draft them. One straightforward way to determine which landing spots are best is to look at which teams have the most available opportunity. In what follows, I’ll explore vacated RB expected points (EP) to find the…...

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Could We Be Underestimating the 2020 Running Back Class? The Backfield Dominator Rating Finds 4 Steals Beyond the 5 Flashy Names

The 2020 class of running backs has several prospects that excite fantasy owners. Surprisingly, the scouting community is less enthusiastic. Many mock drafts do not have a single RB being picked in the first round. Many of our favorite backs figure to be Day 3 selections. However, we know the NFL Draft is not an efficient market for extrapolating fantasy value. In the first volume…...

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The Paradox of Jalen Reagor and the Problem of WR Speed: A 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile

The 2020 wide receiver class is famous for its glut of elite prospects, with seven different receivers expected to be first rounders, according to Grinding the Mocks. One of those outside the first round is Jalen Reagor. Yet many aspects of Reagor’s profile make him look like he deserves to be at the top of the rankings. Is it possible to be sleeping on a player…...

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Does Hand Size Matter for Wide Receivers? The Wrong Read, No. 61

Welcome to the 61st installment of The Wrong Read. Shawn Siegele’s recent article on 2020 Freak Scores linked to some classic work by Fantasy Douche that renewed my interest in wide receiver hand size. We know, on the one hand, that production is all that matters for WRs. But on the other hand, that last sentence can’t possibly be literally true. So the question is,…...

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Justin Jefferson Is the Only Rookie WR Who Checks Every Box: A 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile

Coming off a national title win, Justin Jefferson chose to declare for the NFL Draft instead of returning for his senior season. He enters after a true junior season that saw him catch 111 passes for over 1,500 receiving yards and 18 receiving touchdowns. He’s not the top WR in nearly anyone’s rankings, but if we put his production in some context, he’s got a…...

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Which WR Prospect Metrics Tell Us Something Unique? The Wrong Read, No. 60

I seem to have become obsessed with correlation matrices, so I’m just going to lean into it. Below you’ll find a correlation matrix with many of our favorite WR prospect evaluation metrics. This is admittedly a simplistic way to look at the predictiveness of various metrics. But there are a number of interesting things going on here, which I’ll point out below. Keep in mind…...

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How to Use Expected Points in the Offseason: 4 More Correlation Matrices

Last week I looked at a variety of Expected-Points-based metrics to determine which were the most stable from one week to the next and which were the most predictive of fantasy scoring in future weeks. However, fantasy football is not only a weekly game — in most formats your lineup won’t vary much from one week to the next. Also, for most of our fantasy…...

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Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 16 – Miles Sanders Is a “Buy High” Candidate

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for the most contentious NFC backfields ahead of Week 16. Every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether their owners drafted them as Zero-RB squads or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and…...

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Why Do We Care About Expected Points? An Explanation in 4 Correlation Matrices

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 15 – He’s No Austin Ekeler, But Can Darwin Thompson Be the Guy for KC?

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for the most contentious AFC backfields ahead of Week 15. Almost every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether they were drafted as a Zero-RB squad or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying…...

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3 Rookies Become Year 2 Breakout Candidates: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 14

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 14 – Derrius Guice Gives Washington Hope, and Other NFC Battles to Watch

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for the most contentious NFC backfields ahead of Week 14. Every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether their owners drafted them as Zero-RB squads or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and…...

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Scoreless Streaks and Second-Year Breakouts: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 13

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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