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Kevin Szafraniec
January 15, 2025
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Blair Andrews
Managing Editor, Author of The Wrong Read, Occasional Fantasy Football League Winner. All opinions are someone else's.
Author Archive
In-Season Articles
In-Season Articles
Isaiah Coulter Is Houston’s Darius Slayton
Blair Andrews
August 27, 2020
In The Blitz, RotoViz writers react to the latest news and help you place it within the context of our 2020 research and recommendations. The Houston Texans enter their first season since 2012 without DeAndre Hopkins. One unheralded rookie is looking to fill the gap, according to the RotoViz News Feed. Houston Texans rookie wide receiver Isaiah Coulter’s “speed and fluidity” have stood out during…...
You Can’t Run Scared from the 12 Slot: Extreme Zero-RB Tactics in the FFPC Main Event
Blair Andrews
August 25, 2020
Blair Andrews and Shawn Siegele execute an extreme Zero-RB start in their FFPC Main Event draft. Can they pull it off? Shawn Siegele and I recently participated in an FFPC Main Event draft. We got the 12th pick. Although there wasn’t quite as much excitement around that pick as in the quad draft Shawn did with Ben Gretch, Pat Kerrane, and Peter Overzet on Ship…...
The FFPC Command Center and Controversial Early Picks: Why We Almost Went Even Wilder in Our Co-Owned FFPC Draft
Blair Andrews
August 19, 2020
Dave Caban and Blair Andrews put the RotoViz tools and research to the test, drafting a single-elite-RB FFPC team for a chance at $500,000. While I always relish an excuse to draft a Zero-Running-Back team, it is a good idea to diversify sometimes. Drafting a team with a pick in the early first round makes such diversification a possibility. It’s hard to recommend an RB-heavy…...
Rookie RBs Are the Key To Fantasy Titles, But Not in the Way You Might Think – The Wrong Read No. 64
Blair Andrews
August 12, 2020
We know that rookie running backs have long been a central part of successful Zero-RB teams. Is this still the case after a number of our favorite rookie RBs disappointed in 2019? The answer is, of course, more complicated than you thought. Two seasons ago I found that rookie RBs tend to outperform in certain key spots in fantasy drafts. They just happened to be…...
Can Atlanta’s Offense Support a Pair of 300-Point Scorers? The Many Worlds of the Projection Machine
Blair Andrews
August 7, 2020
Blair Andrews uses the projection machine to explore a few of the many possible futures for the Atlanta Falcons offense. Only once since 2000 has a team produced two 300-point wide receivers — Denver did it in 2014 with both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders reaching that threshold while catching passes from Peyton Manning. If 2020 ADP is any indication, there are probably only two teams…...
It’s Kind of Crazy What the Right Kicker Strategy Does for You in Superflex Best Ball
Blair Andrews
July 30, 2020
Blair Andrews continues his look at FFPC Superflex best ball strategy. In this installment, we turn our attention to the all-important kicker position. It’s not quite right to say that kicker is the forgotten position in fantasy football. But that’s only because kicker is increasingly not a position in fantasy football. The FFPC is becoming a rarity in the fantasy industry as a format that…...
How to Split Half a Million Dollars 4 Ways: Drafting a Championship-Winning Quad Squad in the FFPC
Blair Andrews
July 24, 2020
A few days ago, my Fantasy Football Report cohost Hasan Rahim and I joined Pat Kerrane and Peter Overzet on Ship Chasing to run back our quad-managed FFPC draft. Last year, we went through most of the season taking near zeroes at our second running back slot, and we scrambled to fill our tight end slot from the waiver wire almost every week (in a…...
The Exploitable Relationship Between WR Age and Opportunity Is One of the Biggest Edges in Fantasy – The Wrong Read, No. 63
Blair Andrews
July 14, 2020
Much of the research that happens in this space suggests our fantasy teams should nearly always be younger than we tend to think. Breakouts and busts both happen earlier in players’ careers than the traditional age curves would lead you to believe. Although it’s true that many of best WRs in the NFL last year were somewhere between 25 and 30 years old,((Only two of…...
Tight End Is the New Running Back: How to Benefit from Injury Risk in the Scott Fish Bowl (and Elsewhere)
Blair Andrews
July 3, 2020
Last week I published an article recommending a TEx5 start to your Scott Fish Bowl drafts. This week we added SFBX scoring settings to the Win the Flex app, and it disagreed with my take in no uncertain terms. According to the Win the Flex numbers (using SFBX scoring and FFPC Superflex ADP), tight ends don’t become the best pick until about the eighth round…....
Zero Everything But Tight End: Using the Scott Fish Bowl Points Explorer to Find the Optimal Superflex Strategy
Blair Andrews
June 26, 2020
The Scott Fish Bowl is one of my favorite leagues every year. Not only does it help raise money for Fantasy Cares to support various charities, but it also always has among the most interesting scoring and roster settings. The league has typical 1-QB, 2-RB, 3-WR, 1-TE starting lineup requirements, but the addition of four flex spots, including one Superflex, adds several wrinkles. Tight-end-premium scoring…...
Drafters Are Still Chasing the Wrong Things When Targeting Second-Year Running Backs – The Wrong Read, No. 62
Blair Andrews
June 12, 2020
Players entering Year 2 are among the best investments you can make in your fantasy drafts. So how do you predict who will be the top second-year RBs? Last offseason, I wrote that, contrary to what you may have heard, we want to chase efficiency at the RB position. Specifically, rookie-year efficiency appears to be a sign of good things to come. It turns out…...
Onesie Position Tactics Are Even More Important in Superflex Best Ball Leagues: Tight Ends Will Determine Your Fate
Blair Andrews
June 9, 2020
Last time we looked at how to approach the quarterback position in FFPC Superflex best ball leagues. We used the FFPC Roster Construction Explorer to uncover a near cheat code that returned a 16% win rate (albeit on a relatively small sample). QB is certainly one of the most important positions to get right in Superflex leagues. But there’s another position that might be almost…...
How You Draft Quarterbacks Can Determine Your Fate in Superflex Best Ball Leagues
Blair Andrews
May 29, 2020
Getting the quarterback position right in best ball leagues is one of the easiest and most effective ways to gain an advantage. Simply picking the right number of QBs in the right rounds gives you an immediate edge, before we even get to the problem of individual player selection. But what if you’re in a Superflex best ball draft? The FFPC has offered Superflex best…...
5 Veterans Who Won the 2020 NFL Draft
Blair Andrews
April 27, 2020
The NFL Draft shook up a number of depth charts. Many veterans whose roles looked secure now have questionable futures. But on the flip side, many veterans whose futures were in doubt leading up to the draft dodged a bullet. Several teams were expected to add to their depth charts at various positions, but many chose not to. Which players had the biggest wins because…...
The Best Rookie Running Back Landing Spots: Vacated RB Expected Points
Blair Andrews
April 23, 2020
The early portions of 2020 rookie drafts are expected to be filled with exciting running backs. But the outlooks for our favorite backs depend a lot on which teams draft them. One straightforward way to determine which landing spots are best is to look at which teams have the most available opportunity. In what follows, I’ll explore vacated RB expected points (EP) to find the…...
Could We Be Underestimating the 2020 Running Back Class? The Backfield Dominator Rating Finds 4 Steals Beyond the 5 Flashy Names
Blair Andrews
April 21, 2020
The 2020 class of running backs has several prospects that excite fantasy owners. Surprisingly, the scouting community is less enthusiastic. Many mock drafts do not have a single RB being picked in the first round. Many of our favorite backs figure to be Day 3 selections. However, we know the NFL Draft is not an efficient market for extrapolating fantasy value. In the first volume…...
The Paradox of Jalen Reagor and the Problem of WR Speed: A 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile
Blair Andrews
March 24, 2020
The 2020 wide receiver class is famous for its glut of elite prospects, with seven different receivers expected to be first rounders, according to Grinding the Mocks. One of those outside the first round is Jalen Reagor. Yet many aspects of Reagor’s profile make him look like he deserves to be at the top of the rankings. Is it possible to be sleeping on a player…...
Does Hand Size Matter for Wide Receivers? The Wrong Read, No. 61
Blair Andrews
March 6, 2020
Welcome to the 61st installment of The Wrong Read. Shawn Siegele’s recent article on 2020 Freak Scores linked to some classic work by Fantasy Douche that renewed my interest in wide receiver hand size. We know, on the one hand, that production is all that matters for WRs. But on the other hand, that last sentence can’t possibly be literally true. So the question is,…...
Justin Jefferson Is the Only Rookie WR Who Checks Every Box: A 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile
Blair Andrews
February 19, 2020
Coming off a national title win, Justin Jefferson chose to declare for the NFL Draft instead of returning for his senior season. He enters after a true junior season that saw him catch 111 passes for over 1,500 receiving yards and 18 receiving touchdowns. He’s not the top WR in nearly anyone’s rankings, but if we put his production in some context, he’s got a…...
Which WR Prospect Metrics Tell Us Something Unique? The Wrong Read, No. 60
Blair Andrews
January 9, 2020
I seem to have become obsessed with correlation matrices, so I’m just going to lean into it. Below you’ll find a correlation matrix with many of our favorite WR prospect evaluation metrics. This is admittedly a simplistic way to look at the predictiveness of various metrics. But there are a number of interesting things going on here, which I’ll point out below. Keep in mind…...
Isaiah Coulter Is Houston’s Darius Slayton
Blair Andrews
August 27, 2020
In The Blitz, RotoViz writers react to the latest news and help you place it within the context of our 2020 research and recommendations. The Houston Texans enter their first season since 2012 without DeAndre Hopkins. One unheralded rookie is looking to fill the gap, according to the RotoViz News Feed. Houston Texans rookie wide receiver Isaiah Coulter’s “speed and fluidity” have stood out during…...
You Can’t Run Scared from the 12 Slot: Extreme Zero-RB Tactics in the FFPC Main Event
Blair Andrews
August 25, 2020
Blair Andrews and Shawn Siegele execute an extreme Zero-RB start in their FFPC Main Event draft. Can they pull it off? Shawn Siegele and I recently participated in an FFPC Main Event draft. We got the 12th pick. Although there wasn’t quite as much excitement around that pick as in the quad draft Shawn did with Ben Gretch, Pat Kerrane, and Peter Overzet on Ship…...
The FFPC Command Center and Controversial Early Picks: Why We Almost Went Even Wilder in Our Co-Owned FFPC Draft
Blair Andrews
August 19, 2020
Dave Caban and Blair Andrews put the RotoViz tools and research to the test, drafting a single-elite-RB FFPC team for a chance at $500,000. While I always relish an excuse to draft a Zero-Running-Back team, it is a good idea to diversify sometimes. Drafting a team with a pick in the early first round makes such diversification a possibility. It’s hard to recommend an RB-heavy…...
Rookie RBs Are the Key To Fantasy Titles, But Not in the Way You Might Think – The Wrong Read No. 64
Blair Andrews
August 12, 2020
We know that rookie running backs have long been a central part of successful Zero-RB teams. Is this still the case after a number of our favorite rookie RBs disappointed in 2019? The answer is, of course, more complicated than you thought. Two seasons ago I found that rookie RBs tend to outperform in certain key spots in fantasy drafts. They just happened to be…...
Can Atlanta’s Offense Support a Pair of 300-Point Scorers? The Many Worlds of the Projection Machine
Blair Andrews
August 7, 2020
Blair Andrews uses the projection machine to explore a few of the many possible futures for the Atlanta Falcons offense. Only once since 2000 has a team produced two 300-point wide receivers — Denver did it in 2014 with both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders reaching that threshold while catching passes from Peyton Manning. If 2020 ADP is any indication, there are probably only two teams…...
It’s Kind of Crazy What the Right Kicker Strategy Does for You in Superflex Best Ball
Blair Andrews
July 30, 2020
Blair Andrews continues his look at FFPC Superflex best ball strategy. In this installment, we turn our attention to the all-important kicker position. It’s not quite right to say that kicker is the forgotten position in fantasy football. But that’s only because kicker is increasingly not a position in fantasy football. The FFPC is becoming a rarity in the fantasy industry as a format that…...
How to Split Half a Million Dollars 4 Ways: Drafting a Championship-Winning Quad Squad in the FFPC
Blair Andrews
July 24, 2020
A few days ago, my Fantasy Football Report cohost Hasan Rahim and I joined Pat Kerrane and Peter Overzet on Ship Chasing to run back our quad-managed FFPC draft. Last year, we went through most of the season taking near zeroes at our second running back slot, and we scrambled to fill our tight end slot from the waiver wire almost every week (in a…...
The Exploitable Relationship Between WR Age and Opportunity Is One of the Biggest Edges in Fantasy – The Wrong Read, No. 63
Blair Andrews
July 14, 2020
Much of the research that happens in this space suggests our fantasy teams should nearly always be younger than we tend to think. Breakouts and busts both happen earlier in players’ careers than the traditional age curves would lead you to believe. Although it’s true that many of best WRs in the NFL last year were somewhere between 25 and 30 years old,((Only two of…...
Tight End Is the New Running Back: How to Benefit from Injury Risk in the Scott Fish Bowl (and Elsewhere)
Blair Andrews
July 3, 2020
Last week I published an article recommending a TEx5 start to your Scott Fish Bowl drafts. This week we added SFBX scoring settings to the Win the Flex app, and it disagreed with my take in no uncertain terms. According to the Win the Flex numbers (using SFBX scoring and FFPC Superflex ADP), tight ends don’t become the best pick until about the eighth round…....
Zero Everything But Tight End: Using the Scott Fish Bowl Points Explorer to Find the Optimal Superflex Strategy
Blair Andrews
June 26, 2020
The Scott Fish Bowl is one of my favorite leagues every year. Not only does it help raise money for Fantasy Cares to support various charities, but it also always has among the most interesting scoring and roster settings. The league has typical 1-QB, 2-RB, 3-WR, 1-TE starting lineup requirements, but the addition of four flex spots, including one Superflex, adds several wrinkles. Tight-end-premium scoring…...
Drafters Are Still Chasing the Wrong Things When Targeting Second-Year Running Backs – The Wrong Read, No. 62
Blair Andrews
June 12, 2020
Players entering Year 2 are among the best investments you can make in your fantasy drafts. So how do you predict who will be the top second-year RBs? Last offseason, I wrote that, contrary to what you may have heard, we want to chase efficiency at the RB position. Specifically, rookie-year efficiency appears to be a sign of good things to come. It turns out…...
Onesie Position Tactics Are Even More Important in Superflex Best Ball Leagues: Tight Ends Will Determine Your Fate
Blair Andrews
June 9, 2020
Last time we looked at how to approach the quarterback position in FFPC Superflex best ball leagues. We used the FFPC Roster Construction Explorer to uncover a near cheat code that returned a 16% win rate (albeit on a relatively small sample). QB is certainly one of the most important positions to get right in Superflex leagues. But there’s another position that might be almost…...
How You Draft Quarterbacks Can Determine Your Fate in Superflex Best Ball Leagues
Blair Andrews
May 29, 2020
Getting the quarterback position right in best ball leagues is one of the easiest and most effective ways to gain an advantage. Simply picking the right number of QBs in the right rounds gives you an immediate edge, before we even get to the problem of individual player selection. But what if you’re in a Superflex best ball draft? The FFPC has offered Superflex best…...
5 Veterans Who Won the 2020 NFL Draft
Blair Andrews
April 27, 2020
The NFL Draft shook up a number of depth charts. Many veterans whose roles looked secure now have questionable futures. But on the flip side, many veterans whose futures were in doubt leading up to the draft dodged a bullet. Several teams were expected to add to their depth charts at various positions, but many chose not to. Which players had the biggest wins because…...
The Best Rookie Running Back Landing Spots: Vacated RB Expected Points
Blair Andrews
April 23, 2020
The early portions of 2020 rookie drafts are expected to be filled with exciting running backs. But the outlooks for our favorite backs depend a lot on which teams draft them. One straightforward way to determine which landing spots are best is to look at which teams have the most available opportunity. In what follows, I’ll explore vacated RB expected points (EP) to find the…...
Could We Be Underestimating the 2020 Running Back Class? The Backfield Dominator Rating Finds 4 Steals Beyond the 5 Flashy Names
Blair Andrews
April 21, 2020
The 2020 class of running backs has several prospects that excite fantasy owners. Surprisingly, the scouting community is less enthusiastic. Many mock drafts do not have a single RB being picked in the first round. Many of our favorite backs figure to be Day 3 selections. However, we know the NFL Draft is not an efficient market for extrapolating fantasy value. In the first volume…...
The Paradox of Jalen Reagor and the Problem of WR Speed: A 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile
Blair Andrews
March 24, 2020
The 2020 wide receiver class is famous for its glut of elite prospects, with seven different receivers expected to be first rounders, according to Grinding the Mocks. One of those outside the first round is Jalen Reagor. Yet many aspects of Reagor’s profile make him look like he deserves to be at the top of the rankings. Is it possible to be sleeping on a player…...
Does Hand Size Matter for Wide Receivers? The Wrong Read, No. 61
Blair Andrews
March 6, 2020
Welcome to the 61st installment of The Wrong Read. Shawn Siegele’s recent article on 2020 Freak Scores linked to some classic work by Fantasy Douche that renewed my interest in wide receiver hand size. We know, on the one hand, that production is all that matters for WRs. But on the other hand, that last sentence can’t possibly be literally true. So the question is,…...
Justin Jefferson Is the Only Rookie WR Who Checks Every Box: A 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile
Blair Andrews
February 19, 2020
Coming off a national title win, Justin Jefferson chose to declare for the NFL Draft instead of returning for his senior season. He enters after a true junior season that saw him catch 111 passes for over 1,500 receiving yards and 18 receiving touchdowns. He’s not the top WR in nearly anyone’s rankings, but if we put his production in some context, he’s got a…...
Which WR Prospect Metrics Tell Us Something Unique? The Wrong Read, No. 60
Blair Andrews
January 9, 2020
I seem to have become obsessed with correlation matrices, so I’m just going to lean into it. Below you’ll find a correlation matrix with many of our favorite WR prospect evaluation metrics. This is admittedly a simplistic way to look at the predictiveness of various metrics. But there are a number of interesting things going on here, which I’ll point out below. Keep in mind…...
Isaiah Coulter Is Houston’s Darius Slayton
Blair Andrews
August 27, 2020
In The Blitz, RotoViz writers react to the latest news and help you place it within the context of our 2020 research and recommendations. The Houston Texans enter their first season since 2012 without DeAndre Hopkins. One unheralded rookie is looking to fill the gap, according to the RotoViz News Feed. Houston Texans rookie wide receiver Isaiah Coulter’s “speed and fluidity” have stood out during…...
You Can’t Run Scared from the 12 Slot: Extreme Zero-RB Tactics in the FFPC Main Event
Blair Andrews
August 25, 2020
Blair Andrews and Shawn Siegele execute an extreme Zero-RB start in their FFPC Main Event draft. Can they pull it off? Shawn Siegele and I recently participated in an FFPC Main Event draft. We got the 12th pick. Although there wasn’t quite as much excitement around that pick as in the quad draft Shawn did with Ben Gretch, Pat Kerrane, and Peter Overzet on Ship…...
The FFPC Command Center and Controversial Early Picks: Why We Almost Went Even Wilder in Our Co-Owned FFPC Draft
Blair Andrews
August 19, 2020
Dave Caban and Blair Andrews put the RotoViz tools and research to the test, drafting a single-elite-RB FFPC team for a chance at $500,000. While I always relish an excuse to draft a Zero-Running-Back team, it is a good idea to diversify sometimes. Drafting a team with a pick in the early first round makes such diversification a possibility. It’s hard to recommend an RB-heavy…...
Rookie RBs Are the Key To Fantasy Titles, But Not in the Way You Might Think – The Wrong Read No. 64
Blair Andrews
August 12, 2020
We know that rookie running backs have long been a central part of successful Zero-RB teams. Is this still the case after a number of our favorite rookie RBs disappointed in 2019? The answer is, of course, more complicated than you thought. Two seasons ago I found that rookie RBs tend to outperform in certain key spots in fantasy drafts. They just happened to be…...
Can Atlanta’s Offense Support a Pair of 300-Point Scorers? The Many Worlds of the Projection Machine
Blair Andrews
August 7, 2020
Blair Andrews uses the projection machine to explore a few of the many possible futures for the Atlanta Falcons offense. Only once since 2000 has a team produced two 300-point wide receivers — Denver did it in 2014 with both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders reaching that threshold while catching passes from Peyton Manning. If 2020 ADP is any indication, there are probably only two teams…...
It’s Kind of Crazy What the Right Kicker Strategy Does for You in Superflex Best Ball
Blair Andrews
July 30, 2020
Blair Andrews continues his look at FFPC Superflex best ball strategy. In this installment, we turn our attention to the all-important kicker position. It’s not quite right to say that kicker is the forgotten position in fantasy football. But that’s only because kicker is increasingly not a position in fantasy football. The FFPC is becoming a rarity in the fantasy industry as a format that…...
How to Split Half a Million Dollars 4 Ways: Drafting a Championship-Winning Quad Squad in the FFPC
Blair Andrews
July 24, 2020
A few days ago, my Fantasy Football Report cohost Hasan Rahim and I joined Pat Kerrane and Peter Overzet on Ship Chasing to run back our quad-managed FFPC draft. Last year, we went through most of the season taking near zeroes at our second running back slot, and we scrambled to fill our tight end slot from the waiver wire almost every week (in a…...
The Exploitable Relationship Between WR Age and Opportunity Is One of the Biggest Edges in Fantasy – The Wrong Read, No. 63
Blair Andrews
July 14, 2020
Much of the research that happens in this space suggests our fantasy teams should nearly always be younger than we tend to think. Breakouts and busts both happen earlier in players’ careers than the traditional age curves would lead you to believe. Although it’s true that many of best WRs in the NFL last year were somewhere between 25 and 30 years old,((Only two of…...
Tight End Is the New Running Back: How to Benefit from Injury Risk in the Scott Fish Bowl (and Elsewhere)
Blair Andrews
July 3, 2020
Last week I published an article recommending a TEx5 start to your Scott Fish Bowl drafts. This week we added SFBX scoring settings to the Win the Flex app, and it disagreed with my take in no uncertain terms. According to the Win the Flex numbers (using SFBX scoring and FFPC Superflex ADP), tight ends don’t become the best pick until about the eighth round…....
Zero Everything But Tight End: Using the Scott Fish Bowl Points Explorer to Find the Optimal Superflex Strategy
Blair Andrews
June 26, 2020
The Scott Fish Bowl is one of my favorite leagues every year. Not only does it help raise money for Fantasy Cares to support various charities, but it also always has among the most interesting scoring and roster settings. The league has typical 1-QB, 2-RB, 3-WR, 1-TE starting lineup requirements, but the addition of four flex spots, including one Superflex, adds several wrinkles. Tight-end-premium scoring…...
Drafters Are Still Chasing the Wrong Things When Targeting Second-Year Running Backs – The Wrong Read, No. 62
Blair Andrews
June 12, 2020
Players entering Year 2 are among the best investments you can make in your fantasy drafts. So how do you predict who will be the top second-year RBs? Last offseason, I wrote that, contrary to what you may have heard, we want to chase efficiency at the RB position. Specifically, rookie-year efficiency appears to be a sign of good things to come. It turns out…...
Onesie Position Tactics Are Even More Important in Superflex Best Ball Leagues: Tight Ends Will Determine Your Fate
Blair Andrews
June 9, 2020
Last time we looked at how to approach the quarterback position in FFPC Superflex best ball leagues. We used the FFPC Roster Construction Explorer to uncover a near cheat code that returned a 16% win rate (albeit on a relatively small sample). QB is certainly one of the most important positions to get right in Superflex leagues. But there’s another position that might be almost…...
How You Draft Quarterbacks Can Determine Your Fate in Superflex Best Ball Leagues
Blair Andrews
May 29, 2020
Getting the quarterback position right in best ball leagues is one of the easiest and most effective ways to gain an advantage. Simply picking the right number of QBs in the right rounds gives you an immediate edge, before we even get to the problem of individual player selection. But what if you’re in a Superflex best ball draft? The FFPC has offered Superflex best…...
5 Veterans Who Won the 2020 NFL Draft
Blair Andrews
April 27, 2020
The NFL Draft shook up a number of depth charts. Many veterans whose roles looked secure now have questionable futures. But on the flip side, many veterans whose futures were in doubt leading up to the draft dodged a bullet. Several teams were expected to add to their depth charts at various positions, but many chose not to. Which players had the biggest wins because…...
The Best Rookie Running Back Landing Spots: Vacated RB Expected Points
Blair Andrews
April 23, 2020
The early portions of 2020 rookie drafts are expected to be filled with exciting running backs. But the outlooks for our favorite backs depend a lot on which teams draft them. One straightforward way to determine which landing spots are best is to look at which teams have the most available opportunity. In what follows, I’ll explore vacated RB expected points (EP) to find the…...
Could We Be Underestimating the 2020 Running Back Class? The Backfield Dominator Rating Finds 4 Steals Beyond the 5 Flashy Names
Blair Andrews
April 21, 2020
The 2020 class of running backs has several prospects that excite fantasy owners. Surprisingly, the scouting community is less enthusiastic. Many mock drafts do not have a single RB being picked in the first round. Many of our favorite backs figure to be Day 3 selections. However, we know the NFL Draft is not an efficient market for extrapolating fantasy value. In the first volume…...
The Paradox of Jalen Reagor and the Problem of WR Speed: A 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile
Blair Andrews
March 24, 2020
The 2020 wide receiver class is famous for its glut of elite prospects, with seven different receivers expected to be first rounders, according to Grinding the Mocks. One of those outside the first round is Jalen Reagor. Yet many aspects of Reagor’s profile make him look like he deserves to be at the top of the rankings. Is it possible to be sleeping on a player…...
Does Hand Size Matter for Wide Receivers? The Wrong Read, No. 61
Blair Andrews
March 6, 2020
Welcome to the 61st installment of The Wrong Read. Shawn Siegele’s recent article on 2020 Freak Scores linked to some classic work by Fantasy Douche that renewed my interest in wide receiver hand size. We know, on the one hand, that production is all that matters for WRs. But on the other hand, that last sentence can’t possibly be literally true. So the question is,…...
Justin Jefferson Is the Only Rookie WR Who Checks Every Box: A 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile
Blair Andrews
February 19, 2020
Coming off a national title win, Justin Jefferson chose to declare for the NFL Draft instead of returning for his senior season. He enters after a true junior season that saw him catch 111 passes for over 1,500 receiving yards and 18 receiving touchdowns. He’s not the top WR in nearly anyone’s rankings, but if we put his production in some context, he’s got a…...
Which WR Prospect Metrics Tell Us Something Unique? The Wrong Read, No. 60
Blair Andrews
January 9, 2020
I seem to have become obsessed with correlation matrices, so I’m just going to lean into it. Below you’ll find a correlation matrix with many of our favorite WR prospect evaluation metrics. This is admittedly a simplistic way to look at the predictiveness of various metrics. But there are a number of interesting things going on here, which I’ll point out below. Keep in mind…...
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