Best Ball
Kevin Szafraniec
April 25, 2025
© 2021 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.
Blair Andrews
Managing Editor, Author of The Wrong Read, Occasional Fantasy Football League Winner. All opinions are someone else's.
Author Archive
In-Season Articles
In-Season Articles
Running Back Draft Age Is Still Exploitable And It Provides an Earlier, Larger Edge Than You Might Think, The Wrong Read, No. 72
Blair Andrews
June 10, 2021
Blair Andrews revisits his research on running back draft age. Do younger RBs still provide an edge? Where does that edge come from? And which RBs should we be targeting in redraft and trading for in dynasty? We know, when looking for fantasy wide receiver prospects, younger is generally better. Does this hold for running back prospects? In the Wrong Read, No 30, I found…...
RotoViz TriFlex Dynasty and Why Trading Back Is a Win-Now Tactic – The Wrong Read, No. 71
Blair Andrews
May 30, 2021
The goal in any dynasty league is, or at least should be, to put yourself in what Shawn Siegele has called the Permanent Championship Window (PCW). Proponents of the PCW look at the debate between win-now and win-later strategies and ask, “why not both?” Suppose you could win in Year 1 … and also in Year 2, Year 3, and beyond. If winning now and…...
We Know We Want Young WRs, But Can Draft Age Help Us Win Rookie Drafts? The Wrong Read, No. 70
Blair Andrews
May 6, 2021
It’s not an overstatement to say we’re obsessed with age at RotoViz. This is especially true when it comes to wide receiver prospects. Breakout age is one of our favorite metrics. We always prefer receivers who declare early. And draft age has long been a key piece of our wide receiver evaluation. It’s been a few years since I’ve looked specifically at draft age, so…...
2 Freakish Receivers Make Waves in the Third Round for WR-Needy Teams, But Do They Profile as More Than Just Athletes?
Blair Andrews
May 1, 2021
Nico Collins was drafted by the Houston Texans with the No. 89 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Anthony Schwartz was drafted by the Cleveland Browns with the No. 91 pick. These two athletic marvels land on squads that lacked wide receiver firepower in 2020, but do their profiles offer an immediate impact? Athletic Profiles Collins and Schwartz are bound to be lumped together as…...
Dyami Brown Might Not Be Mike Evans, But Can He Be Ryan Fitzpatrick’s Favorite Downfield Target in Washington?
Blair Andrews
April 30, 2021
Dyami Brown was selected by the Washington Football Team with the No. 82 pick in the 2021 NFL draft. He becomes the new deep threat for Ryan Fitzpatrick, who perhaps hasn’t enjoyed a more talented downfield target since throwing passes to Mike Evans in Tampa Bay. Brown joins a Washington team that was hurting for receiving help last year. They didn’t send 50 targets to…...
Ja’Marr Chase Lands With the Cincinnati Bengals and Makes Joe Burrow a Superflex Megastar
Blair Andrews
April 29, 2021
Ja’Marr Chase was selected by the Cincinnati Bengals with the No. 5 pick in the 2021 NFL draft. Last week I explained why Chase was one of the best WR prospects ever. What does his arrival in Cincinnati mean for the Bengals? With the pick, the Bengals not only give 2020’s No. 1 pick Joe Burrow an additional weapon, but also reunite him with his…...
Finding the Next Justin Jefferson: Rashod Bateman, Random Forests, and the Power of Checking All the Boxes – The Wrong Read, No. 69
Blair Andrews
April 28, 2021
Blair Andrews builds on the random forest model described in the Wrong Read No. 68 by turning it into actionable rules for choosing rookie wide receivers. Last year Blair told you that Justin Jefferson was the only WR prospect to check all the boxes. Today, he provides the most similar receivers from the 2021 class. The best predictive models have three notable criteria — they’re…...
Is Ja’Marr Chase the Best Wide Receiver Prospect Since Amari Cooper? The Updated Prospect Lab Has a Strong Opinion
Blair Andrews
April 16, 2021
Ja’Marr Chase has had basically one good season in his collegiate career. Yet he’s the consensus WR1 in the class and is likely to hear his name called in the top-six picks at the end of April. What is it about his profile that has dynasty players salivating and NFL teams jockeying to make him the highest-drafted WR since Corey Davis? Chase’s College Production First…...
DeVonta Smith, the Importance of Declaring Early, and the Reasons It Sometimes Doesn’t Matter
Blair Andrews
April 8, 2021
Matthew Freedman recently tweeted an alarming list of players — first-round wide receivers since 2011 who spent at least four years in college: 2011-20: Round 1 WRs w/ 4+ years in college … Brandon AiyukCorey Davis Mike WilliamsJohn RossCorey ColemanJosh DoctsonKevin White DeVante ParkerPhillip Dorsett Tavon Austin Justin BlackmonMichael FloydKendall WrightA.J. Jenkins ? RIP DeVonta Smith? — Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) April 4, 2021 In the…...
What Metrics Are Most Important for WR Evaluation? Machine Learning Provides Several Surprising Answers – The Wrong Read, No. 68
Blair Andrews
April 3, 2021
In the 68th edition of the Wrong Read, Blair Andrews uses a random forest to help you find the most important metrics for wide receiver evaluation. A couple of years ago, I did a fun study called the Ultimate WR Prospect Metrics Guide to determine which metrics best correlated with NFL success. That was a good first step, but it had a couple of holes…....
The 2021 Backfield Dominator Ratings Uncover 3 Sleepers and 1 Surprising Superstar in the Making
Blair Andrews
March 19, 2021
Every year there are college running backs whose counting stats underrate (or overrate) their true ability. This is especially true following the 2020 season, in which many teams played only a handful of games. Among the most powerful adjustments we can make in order to correct for the problem of counting stats is to use the Backfield Dominator Rating (BDR). If you’ve forgotten or perhaps…...
Just How Crazy Was 2020? Insights from the Win the Flex App and Strategies for 2021 Drafts
Blair Andrews
March 5, 2021
Drafting successfully means, at least in part, picking the right kinds of players and avoiding the wrong kinds. We provide a lot of guidance at RotoViz on who the right and wrong kind of players to draft are. Still, getting the player selection tactics down is only part of the solution for finding the game-changing win rates we know are possible. Shawn Siegele has detailed…...
You’re Probably Targeting Upside and Safety in the Wrong Parts of Your Draft … And Killing Your Best Ball Win Rates – The Wrong Read, No. 67
Blair Andrews
February 16, 2021
The previous Wrong Read looked at best ball win rates as a function of age and experience. The surprising finding is that at almost every position, younger and less experienced players underperform. Two factors combine to make this the case. First, the optionality profile of best ball leagues makes them less ideal for players with a wide range of outcomes than traditional redraft leagues. If…...
Are Your Best Ball Teams Too Young? Age, Experience, Upside, and Optionality in Redraft and Best Ball – The Wrong Read, No. 66
Blair Andrews
January 29, 2021
Anyone who spends much time perusing this site will soon realize we tend to have a strong youth bias. We’re constantly searching for the next rookie sensation, and much of our dynasty advice comes down to selling your stars — especially at RB — while you can still get your leaguemates to pay elite-level prices for them. Nearly always, we advise trying to make your…...
Justin Jefferson and the Value of Checking All the Boxes: Why We Picked Him and How to Do It Again – The Wrong Read, No. 65
Blair Andrews
January 14, 2021
Justin Jefferson finished his rookie season with 1,400 receiving yards — the most for a rookie WR this century. His 64.2 receiving FPOE trail only Odell Beckham and A.J. Brown. His 274.2 PPR points trail only Beckham and Anquan Boldin. Yet going into the 2020 season, Jefferson was just the ninth player picked in FFPC rookie drafts. Likewise, Brown was the 10th player picked in…...
2021 FFPC Playoff Challenge Projections: What Expected Points Are Telling Us Ahead of the Postseason
Blair Andrews
January 6, 2021
If you’re playing in the FFPC Playoff Challenge, some helpful data to bring into the contest with you would be playoff projections. A feature of the RotoViz Screener that often gets overlooked is the ability to look at playoff games and even to create objective projections based on a linear regression. There are a lot of ways to create powerful models, but in what follows…...
Ultimate Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 17 – Dynasty Buy or Sell Edition
Blair Andrews
January 2, 2021
Welcome to the Ultimate Zero RB Watch List. Blair Andrews explores the changing backfield situations in the AFC ahead of Week 17. This week, we look for the top dynasty buy and sell candidates. You don’t have to draft a Zero RB team to win at fantasy football, but it helps. Whether you did go Zero RB or not, all teams can benefit from finding…...
Stefon Diggs Had One of the Best Playoff Runs Ever, and He Was Still Overshadowed: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 16
Blair Andrews
December 31, 2020
Blair Andrews looks back at the leaders in expected points and fantasy points over expectation after Week 16. A RotoViz favorite becomes (almost) the fantasy playoff MVP, and we look at just how strange a season it’s been. For an explanation of what expected points and fantasy points over expectation are, head to the end of the article. It’s worth putting Stefon Diggs’ last three…...
Ultimate Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 16 – Tony Pollard and the Power of Time-Insensitive Predictions
Blair Andrews
December 24, 2020
Blair Andrews explores the changing backfield situations in the NFC ahead of Week 16 in the Ultimate Zero RB Watch List. Tony Pollard reminds us not to give up on our theses so soon. You don’t have to draft a Zero RB team to win at fantasy football, but it helps. Whether you did go Zero RB or not, all teams can benefit from finding…...
2 Surprise RBs Outperform and Rookie WRs Keep Making History: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 15
Blair Andrews
December 23, 2020
Blair Andrews looks back at the leaders in expected points and fantasy points over expectation after Week 15. This week, we crown a new dynasty WR1. How does he compare to dynasty WR1s from years past? For an explanation of what expected points and fantasy points over expectation are, head to the end of the article. Even Bad Players Are Sometimes Good We’ve profiled J.D…....
Running Back Draft Age Is Still Exploitable And It Provides an Earlier, Larger Edge Than You Might Think, The Wrong Read, No. 72
Blair Andrews
June 10, 2021
Blair Andrews revisits his research on running back draft age. Do younger RBs still provide an edge? Where does that edge come from? And which RBs should we be targeting in redraft and trading for in dynasty? We know, when looking for fantasy wide receiver prospects, younger is generally better. Does this hold for running back prospects? In the Wrong Read, No 30, I found…...
RotoViz TriFlex Dynasty and Why Trading Back Is a Win-Now Tactic – The Wrong Read, No. 71
Blair Andrews
May 30, 2021
The goal in any dynasty league is, or at least should be, to put yourself in what Shawn Siegele has called the Permanent Championship Window (PCW). Proponents of the PCW look at the debate between win-now and win-later strategies and ask, “why not both?” Suppose you could win in Year 1 … and also in Year 2, Year 3, and beyond. If winning now and…...
We Know We Want Young WRs, But Can Draft Age Help Us Win Rookie Drafts? The Wrong Read, No. 70
Blair Andrews
May 6, 2021
It’s not an overstatement to say we’re obsessed with age at RotoViz. This is especially true when it comes to wide receiver prospects. Breakout age is one of our favorite metrics. We always prefer receivers who declare early. And draft age has long been a key piece of our wide receiver evaluation. It’s been a few years since I’ve looked specifically at draft age, so…...
2 Freakish Receivers Make Waves in the Third Round for WR-Needy Teams, But Do They Profile as More Than Just Athletes?
Blair Andrews
May 1, 2021
Nico Collins was drafted by the Houston Texans with the No. 89 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Anthony Schwartz was drafted by the Cleveland Browns with the No. 91 pick. These two athletic marvels land on squads that lacked wide receiver firepower in 2020, but do their profiles offer an immediate impact? Athletic Profiles Collins and Schwartz are bound to be lumped together as…...
Dyami Brown Might Not Be Mike Evans, But Can He Be Ryan Fitzpatrick’s Favorite Downfield Target in Washington?
Blair Andrews
April 30, 2021
Dyami Brown was selected by the Washington Football Team with the No. 82 pick in the 2021 NFL draft. He becomes the new deep threat for Ryan Fitzpatrick, who perhaps hasn’t enjoyed a more talented downfield target since throwing passes to Mike Evans in Tampa Bay. Brown joins a Washington team that was hurting for receiving help last year. They didn’t send 50 targets to…...
Ja’Marr Chase Lands With the Cincinnati Bengals and Makes Joe Burrow a Superflex Megastar
Blair Andrews
April 29, 2021
Ja’Marr Chase was selected by the Cincinnati Bengals with the No. 5 pick in the 2021 NFL draft. Last week I explained why Chase was one of the best WR prospects ever. What does his arrival in Cincinnati mean for the Bengals? With the pick, the Bengals not only give 2020’s No. 1 pick Joe Burrow an additional weapon, but also reunite him with his…...
Finding the Next Justin Jefferson: Rashod Bateman, Random Forests, and the Power of Checking All the Boxes – The Wrong Read, No. 69
Blair Andrews
April 28, 2021
Blair Andrews builds on the random forest model described in the Wrong Read No. 68 by turning it into actionable rules for choosing rookie wide receivers. Last year Blair told you that Justin Jefferson was the only WR prospect to check all the boxes. Today, he provides the most similar receivers from the 2021 class. The best predictive models have three notable criteria — they’re…...
Is Ja’Marr Chase the Best Wide Receiver Prospect Since Amari Cooper? The Updated Prospect Lab Has a Strong Opinion
Blair Andrews
April 16, 2021
Ja’Marr Chase has had basically one good season in his collegiate career. Yet he’s the consensus WR1 in the class and is likely to hear his name called in the top-six picks at the end of April. What is it about his profile that has dynasty players salivating and NFL teams jockeying to make him the highest-drafted WR since Corey Davis? Chase’s College Production First…...
DeVonta Smith, the Importance of Declaring Early, and the Reasons It Sometimes Doesn’t Matter
Blair Andrews
April 8, 2021
Matthew Freedman recently tweeted an alarming list of players — first-round wide receivers since 2011 who spent at least four years in college: 2011-20: Round 1 WRs w/ 4+ years in college … Brandon AiyukCorey Davis Mike WilliamsJohn RossCorey ColemanJosh DoctsonKevin White DeVante ParkerPhillip Dorsett Tavon Austin Justin BlackmonMichael FloydKendall WrightA.J. Jenkins ? RIP DeVonta Smith? — Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) April 4, 2021 In the…...
What Metrics Are Most Important for WR Evaluation? Machine Learning Provides Several Surprising Answers – The Wrong Read, No. 68
Blair Andrews
April 3, 2021
In the 68th edition of the Wrong Read, Blair Andrews uses a random forest to help you find the most important metrics for wide receiver evaluation. A couple of years ago, I did a fun study called the Ultimate WR Prospect Metrics Guide to determine which metrics best correlated with NFL success. That was a good first step, but it had a couple of holes…....
The 2021 Backfield Dominator Ratings Uncover 3 Sleepers and 1 Surprising Superstar in the Making
Blair Andrews
March 19, 2021
Every year there are college running backs whose counting stats underrate (or overrate) their true ability. This is especially true following the 2020 season, in which many teams played only a handful of games. Among the most powerful adjustments we can make in order to correct for the problem of counting stats is to use the Backfield Dominator Rating (BDR). If you’ve forgotten or perhaps…...
Just How Crazy Was 2020? Insights from the Win the Flex App and Strategies for 2021 Drafts
Blair Andrews
March 5, 2021
Drafting successfully means, at least in part, picking the right kinds of players and avoiding the wrong kinds. We provide a lot of guidance at RotoViz on who the right and wrong kind of players to draft are. Still, getting the player selection tactics down is only part of the solution for finding the game-changing win rates we know are possible. Shawn Siegele has detailed…...
You’re Probably Targeting Upside and Safety in the Wrong Parts of Your Draft … And Killing Your Best Ball Win Rates – The Wrong Read, No. 67
Blair Andrews
February 16, 2021
The previous Wrong Read looked at best ball win rates as a function of age and experience. The surprising finding is that at almost every position, younger and less experienced players underperform. Two factors combine to make this the case. First, the optionality profile of best ball leagues makes them less ideal for players with a wide range of outcomes than traditional redraft leagues. If…...
Are Your Best Ball Teams Too Young? Age, Experience, Upside, and Optionality in Redraft and Best Ball – The Wrong Read, No. 66
Blair Andrews
January 29, 2021
Anyone who spends much time perusing this site will soon realize we tend to have a strong youth bias. We’re constantly searching for the next rookie sensation, and much of our dynasty advice comes down to selling your stars — especially at RB — while you can still get your leaguemates to pay elite-level prices for them. Nearly always, we advise trying to make your…...
Justin Jefferson and the Value of Checking All the Boxes: Why We Picked Him and How to Do It Again – The Wrong Read, No. 65
Blair Andrews
January 14, 2021
Justin Jefferson finished his rookie season with 1,400 receiving yards — the most for a rookie WR this century. His 64.2 receiving FPOE trail only Odell Beckham and A.J. Brown. His 274.2 PPR points trail only Beckham and Anquan Boldin. Yet going into the 2020 season, Jefferson was just the ninth player picked in FFPC rookie drafts. Likewise, Brown was the 10th player picked in…...
2021 FFPC Playoff Challenge Projections: What Expected Points Are Telling Us Ahead of the Postseason
Blair Andrews
January 6, 2021
If you’re playing in the FFPC Playoff Challenge, some helpful data to bring into the contest with you would be playoff projections. A feature of the RotoViz Screener that often gets overlooked is the ability to look at playoff games and even to create objective projections based on a linear regression. There are a lot of ways to create powerful models, but in what follows…...
Ultimate Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 17 – Dynasty Buy or Sell Edition
Blair Andrews
January 2, 2021
Welcome to the Ultimate Zero RB Watch List. Blair Andrews explores the changing backfield situations in the AFC ahead of Week 17. This week, we look for the top dynasty buy and sell candidates. You don’t have to draft a Zero RB team to win at fantasy football, but it helps. Whether you did go Zero RB or not, all teams can benefit from finding…...
Stefon Diggs Had One of the Best Playoff Runs Ever, and He Was Still Overshadowed: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 16
Blair Andrews
December 31, 2020
Blair Andrews looks back at the leaders in expected points and fantasy points over expectation after Week 16. A RotoViz favorite becomes (almost) the fantasy playoff MVP, and we look at just how strange a season it’s been. For an explanation of what expected points and fantasy points over expectation are, head to the end of the article. It’s worth putting Stefon Diggs’ last three…...
Ultimate Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 16 – Tony Pollard and the Power of Time-Insensitive Predictions
Blair Andrews
December 24, 2020
Blair Andrews explores the changing backfield situations in the NFC ahead of Week 16 in the Ultimate Zero RB Watch List. Tony Pollard reminds us not to give up on our theses so soon. You don’t have to draft a Zero RB team to win at fantasy football, but it helps. Whether you did go Zero RB or not, all teams can benefit from finding…...
2 Surprise RBs Outperform and Rookie WRs Keep Making History: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 15
Blair Andrews
December 23, 2020
Blair Andrews looks back at the leaders in expected points and fantasy points over expectation after Week 15. This week, we crown a new dynasty WR1. How does he compare to dynasty WR1s from years past? For an explanation of what expected points and fantasy points over expectation are, head to the end of the article. Even Bad Players Are Sometimes Good We’ve profiled J.D…....
Running Back Draft Age Is Still Exploitable And It Provides an Earlier, Larger Edge Than You Might Think, The Wrong Read, No. 72
Blair Andrews
June 10, 2021
Blair Andrews revisits his research on running back draft age. Do younger RBs still provide an edge? Where does that edge come from? And which RBs should we be targeting in redraft and trading for in dynasty? We know, when looking for fantasy wide receiver prospects, younger is generally better. Does this hold for running back prospects? In the Wrong Read, No 30, I found…...
RotoViz TriFlex Dynasty and Why Trading Back Is a Win-Now Tactic – The Wrong Read, No. 71
Blair Andrews
May 30, 2021
The goal in any dynasty league is, or at least should be, to put yourself in what Shawn Siegele has called the Permanent Championship Window (PCW). Proponents of the PCW look at the debate between win-now and win-later strategies and ask, “why not both?” Suppose you could win in Year 1 … and also in Year 2, Year 3, and beyond. If winning now and…...
We Know We Want Young WRs, But Can Draft Age Help Us Win Rookie Drafts? The Wrong Read, No. 70
Blair Andrews
May 6, 2021
It’s not an overstatement to say we’re obsessed with age at RotoViz. This is especially true when it comes to wide receiver prospects. Breakout age is one of our favorite metrics. We always prefer receivers who declare early. And draft age has long been a key piece of our wide receiver evaluation. It’s been a few years since I’ve looked specifically at draft age, so…...
2 Freakish Receivers Make Waves in the Third Round for WR-Needy Teams, But Do They Profile as More Than Just Athletes?
Blair Andrews
May 1, 2021
Nico Collins was drafted by the Houston Texans with the No. 89 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Anthony Schwartz was drafted by the Cleveland Browns with the No. 91 pick. These two athletic marvels land on squads that lacked wide receiver firepower in 2020, but do their profiles offer an immediate impact? Athletic Profiles Collins and Schwartz are bound to be lumped together as…...
Dyami Brown Might Not Be Mike Evans, But Can He Be Ryan Fitzpatrick’s Favorite Downfield Target in Washington?
Blair Andrews
April 30, 2021
Dyami Brown was selected by the Washington Football Team with the No. 82 pick in the 2021 NFL draft. He becomes the new deep threat for Ryan Fitzpatrick, who perhaps hasn’t enjoyed a more talented downfield target since throwing passes to Mike Evans in Tampa Bay. Brown joins a Washington team that was hurting for receiving help last year. They didn’t send 50 targets to…...
Ja’Marr Chase Lands With the Cincinnati Bengals and Makes Joe Burrow a Superflex Megastar
Blair Andrews
April 29, 2021
Ja’Marr Chase was selected by the Cincinnati Bengals with the No. 5 pick in the 2021 NFL draft. Last week I explained why Chase was one of the best WR prospects ever. What does his arrival in Cincinnati mean for the Bengals? With the pick, the Bengals not only give 2020’s No. 1 pick Joe Burrow an additional weapon, but also reunite him with his…...
Finding the Next Justin Jefferson: Rashod Bateman, Random Forests, and the Power of Checking All the Boxes – The Wrong Read, No. 69
Blair Andrews
April 28, 2021
Blair Andrews builds on the random forest model described in the Wrong Read No. 68 by turning it into actionable rules for choosing rookie wide receivers. Last year Blair told you that Justin Jefferson was the only WR prospect to check all the boxes. Today, he provides the most similar receivers from the 2021 class. The best predictive models have three notable criteria — they’re…...
Is Ja’Marr Chase the Best Wide Receiver Prospect Since Amari Cooper? The Updated Prospect Lab Has a Strong Opinion
Blair Andrews
April 16, 2021
Ja’Marr Chase has had basically one good season in his collegiate career. Yet he’s the consensus WR1 in the class and is likely to hear his name called in the top-six picks at the end of April. What is it about his profile that has dynasty players salivating and NFL teams jockeying to make him the highest-drafted WR since Corey Davis? Chase’s College Production First…...
DeVonta Smith, the Importance of Declaring Early, and the Reasons It Sometimes Doesn’t Matter
Blair Andrews
April 8, 2021
Matthew Freedman recently tweeted an alarming list of players — first-round wide receivers since 2011 who spent at least four years in college: 2011-20: Round 1 WRs w/ 4+ years in college … Brandon AiyukCorey Davis Mike WilliamsJohn RossCorey ColemanJosh DoctsonKevin White DeVante ParkerPhillip Dorsett Tavon Austin Justin BlackmonMichael FloydKendall WrightA.J. Jenkins ? RIP DeVonta Smith? — Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) April 4, 2021 In the…...
What Metrics Are Most Important for WR Evaluation? Machine Learning Provides Several Surprising Answers – The Wrong Read, No. 68
Blair Andrews
April 3, 2021
In the 68th edition of the Wrong Read, Blair Andrews uses a random forest to help you find the most important metrics for wide receiver evaluation. A couple of years ago, I did a fun study called the Ultimate WR Prospect Metrics Guide to determine which metrics best correlated with NFL success. That was a good first step, but it had a couple of holes…....
The 2021 Backfield Dominator Ratings Uncover 3 Sleepers and 1 Surprising Superstar in the Making
Blair Andrews
March 19, 2021
Every year there are college running backs whose counting stats underrate (or overrate) their true ability. This is especially true following the 2020 season, in which many teams played only a handful of games. Among the most powerful adjustments we can make in order to correct for the problem of counting stats is to use the Backfield Dominator Rating (BDR). If you’ve forgotten or perhaps…...
Just How Crazy Was 2020? Insights from the Win the Flex App and Strategies for 2021 Drafts
Blair Andrews
March 5, 2021
Drafting successfully means, at least in part, picking the right kinds of players and avoiding the wrong kinds. We provide a lot of guidance at RotoViz on who the right and wrong kind of players to draft are. Still, getting the player selection tactics down is only part of the solution for finding the game-changing win rates we know are possible. Shawn Siegele has detailed…...
You’re Probably Targeting Upside and Safety in the Wrong Parts of Your Draft … And Killing Your Best Ball Win Rates – The Wrong Read, No. 67
Blair Andrews
February 16, 2021
The previous Wrong Read looked at best ball win rates as a function of age and experience. The surprising finding is that at almost every position, younger and less experienced players underperform. Two factors combine to make this the case. First, the optionality profile of best ball leagues makes them less ideal for players with a wide range of outcomes than traditional redraft leagues. If…...
Are Your Best Ball Teams Too Young? Age, Experience, Upside, and Optionality in Redraft and Best Ball – The Wrong Read, No. 66
Blair Andrews
January 29, 2021
Anyone who spends much time perusing this site will soon realize we tend to have a strong youth bias. We’re constantly searching for the next rookie sensation, and much of our dynasty advice comes down to selling your stars — especially at RB — while you can still get your leaguemates to pay elite-level prices for them. Nearly always, we advise trying to make your…...
Justin Jefferson and the Value of Checking All the Boxes: Why We Picked Him and How to Do It Again – The Wrong Read, No. 65
Blair Andrews
January 14, 2021
Justin Jefferson finished his rookie season with 1,400 receiving yards — the most for a rookie WR this century. His 64.2 receiving FPOE trail only Odell Beckham and A.J. Brown. His 274.2 PPR points trail only Beckham and Anquan Boldin. Yet going into the 2020 season, Jefferson was just the ninth player picked in FFPC rookie drafts. Likewise, Brown was the 10th player picked in…...
2021 FFPC Playoff Challenge Projections: What Expected Points Are Telling Us Ahead of the Postseason
Blair Andrews
January 6, 2021
If you’re playing in the FFPC Playoff Challenge, some helpful data to bring into the contest with you would be playoff projections. A feature of the RotoViz Screener that often gets overlooked is the ability to look at playoff games and even to create objective projections based on a linear regression. There are a lot of ways to create powerful models, but in what follows…...
Ultimate Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 17 – Dynasty Buy or Sell Edition
Blair Andrews
January 2, 2021
Welcome to the Ultimate Zero RB Watch List. Blair Andrews explores the changing backfield situations in the AFC ahead of Week 17. This week, we look for the top dynasty buy and sell candidates. You don’t have to draft a Zero RB team to win at fantasy football, but it helps. Whether you did go Zero RB or not, all teams can benefit from finding…...
Stefon Diggs Had One of the Best Playoff Runs Ever, and He Was Still Overshadowed: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 16
Blair Andrews
December 31, 2020
Blair Andrews looks back at the leaders in expected points and fantasy points over expectation after Week 16. A RotoViz favorite becomes (almost) the fantasy playoff MVP, and we look at just how strange a season it’s been. For an explanation of what expected points and fantasy points over expectation are, head to the end of the article. It’s worth putting Stefon Diggs’ last three…...
Ultimate Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 16 – Tony Pollard and the Power of Time-Insensitive Predictions
Blair Andrews
December 24, 2020
Blair Andrews explores the changing backfield situations in the NFC ahead of Week 16 in the Ultimate Zero RB Watch List. Tony Pollard reminds us not to give up on our theses so soon. You don’t have to draft a Zero RB team to win at fantasy football, but it helps. Whether you did go Zero RB or not, all teams can benefit from finding…...
2 Surprise RBs Outperform and Rookie WRs Keep Making History: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 15
Blair Andrews
December 23, 2020
Blair Andrews looks back at the leaders in expected points and fantasy points over expectation after Week 15. This week, we crown a new dynasty WR1. How does he compare to dynasty WR1s from years past? For an explanation of what expected points and fantasy points over expectation are, head to the end of the article. Even Bad Players Are Sometimes Good We’ve profiled J.D…....
About
Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!
Data provided by
