In an earlier piece I used some salary cap information to find a cheap dynasty trade target at the wide receiver position. I thought that in the lull between the Super Bowl and the NFL combine it might be helpful to continue to go through salary cap data and see if it tells us anything else about what to expect going forward. Today I’m going…...

Below is a table with data courtesy of Spotrac that shows some of the top savings that can be had by cutting WRs. Hit is the player’s 2016 cap hit, dead is the amount of dead money the team will realize by cutting the player, save is the amount of salary cap savings from cutting the player. NAME HIT DEAD SAVE SAVEPCT YDS TRGS CALVIN JOHNSON…...

My trading philosophy is that when you get an offer that prices in most (or all) of a player’s upside, that’s when it’s time to cash out. To be fair, correctly determining a player’s peak can be easier said than done. But you still have to be able to come up with these independent valuations. I think it’s probably time to cash in your Tyler…...

We’re in peak draft season so the NFL prospect to NFL player comparables are going to be reaching peak saturation in no time. In fact we have and will continue to add to the noise that results from the practice of comparing NFL prospects to NFL players. For that reason (we don’t intend to stop) I thought it might be worthwhile to discuss some areas…...

One thing I’ve cautioned over the years is taking something that should really be a continuous variable, like age, and then turning it into a binary variable. By that I mean instead of saying that Kelvin Benjamin is an older prospect and an age penalty is in order, saying instead that he’s too old to draft. Now it’s possible that if you were an NFL…...

A question that came up in our email chain among RotoViz contributors was whether it’s reasonable to do some kind of age adjustment for NFL receivers, or whether age adjustments should stop when players enter the NFL…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

We’re early in draft season so in some ways I still feel like I’m getting my feet under me. As I review the cases for prospects I’m trying not to become overly convinced that a player might be good or bad because we’re still going to learn additional information about them…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a...

Here’s the good news on DeRunnya Wilson. He’s a monster. He’s listed as 6 feet 5 inches, and between 215 pounds and 225 pounds depending on source. Additionally, he caught 10 touchdowns in 13 games during the 2015 season. I use raw touchdowns as an input to my WR projection model, so I like to see that he caught just less than a touchdown per game. Now for…...

From Profootballtalk: The first question is whether the quarterback Kelly coaches will be Colin Kaepernick. It appeared that Kaepernick’s tenure in San Francisco was coming to an end when he was benched last season, but Kelly’s offense could be suited to Kaepernick’s skill set, and it’s now possible that Kaepernick could remain. What’s clear is the 49ers needed a coach to shift the franchise’s direction…...

According to Fantasy Football Calculator ADP for 2016, Devin Funchess is currently being drafted as WR58. I understand why he’s not going earlier, but I still expect to own a lot of Funchess in 2016.  As an aside before I move on, I should say when I first wrote that intro my instinct was to ridicule people who are mock drafting on January 13.  Then I…...

The opportunity and efficiency metrics mentioned in this post come straight out of the Efficiency App. Here we go: Doug Baldwin has had a pretty ridiculous season, perhaps all the more ridiculous since it has really just been half of a season. But compare Baldwin’s efficiency this year compared with Jordy Nelson’s 2011 season. In 2011 Nelson had 139 FPOE on 96 targets, while this…...

Go home 2015 season, you’re drunk. When I read this week’s Plays of the Week, and one of the plays was Blaine Gabbert, and it wasn’t an obvious joke, I knew that the 2015 season had jumped the shark. Plays are in the table below. Updated standings are at the bottom of the post. This is John Solis’ contest to lose. Writer Play  Salary One…...

This is a follow up to some data I posted a couple of weeks ago where I looked at the most commonly owned teams in the FFPC playoffs. Some culling of the ranks has occurred[1]teams that didn’t either win their league playoffs, or enter the playoffs as one or two seeds are now eliminated so I wanted to get a new list out. This list…...

The short answer to the question posed in the title of this post is that I really don’t know who the right pickup is after Mark Ingram went to IR today.  Here’s what we know: The Saints have historically used a committee approach in their backfield. However, after Khiry Robinson went down earlier in the year they were so unexcited about their other backs that…...

By this point in the season you know the drill. We’re having a weekly contest to see who can give out the best play of the week. Our scoring method is to just assign points based on the average Millionaire Maker score for lineups that roster a given player. Here are this week’s plays: Writer Play Salary Comments Anthony Amico Julio Jones  $                                              9,000 Fresh…...

Over the past few weeks I’ve been dropping wide receivers that are unlikely to start for me and loading up on RBs and QBs. Now that the bye weeks are past us I’m just gambling on my receivers staying healthy, and I’m hoping to hit the lotto with a backup RB that becomes valuable. The other prong to my strategy is that I’m trying to…...

We were having a discussion in the RotoViz email thread about the FFPC format, and I speculated that lots of playoff and championship round rosters will probably look similar to each other. The first 11 weeks of the season are basically an evolutionary process where the CJ Anderson owning teams are hit by a giant fucking comet…. Membership Required You must be a member to...

The RotoViz writers got together to brainstorm some under the radar players who could be difference makers during the second half. After we deleted all of the Christine Michael takes due to self-plagiarism, this is what we came up with. Dontrelle Inman, Charles Kleinheksel From the world of small sample sizes, witness what Inman was able to do in two games last year sans Keenan Allen…....

Like similar past iterations of our Twitter follow posts, the list below is the result of some very simple datamining. I start with a list of about 10 Twitter influencers in a domain, then I download their followers, do some quick aggregation to find the most common overlapping follows, and then I make a list. If you want to find these people via an easy…...