Welcome back to my NFL Game Script series, where I examine how game script affects running back fantasy production in season-long redraft and best ball formats. In Part 1, I broke up our running back sample into quartiles based on their teams’ preseason Vegas Win Totals: Quartile 1 is composed of players from teams with a Vegas Win Total of 9.5 or higher. Quartile 2…...

Welcome back to my NFL Game Script series, where I examine how game script affects running back fantasy production in season-long redraft and best ball formats. In Part 1, I broke up our running back sample into quartiles based on their teams’ preseason Vegas Win Totals: Quartile 1 is composed of players from teams with a Vegas Win Total of 9.5 or higher. Quartile 2…...

Welcome back to my NFL Game Script series, where I examine how game script affects running back fantasy production in season-long redraft and best ball formats. In Part 1 of this series, I examined game script from a bird’s eye view. Let’s recap some of the important findings from Part 1: Game condition (leading vs. trailing) has a significant effect on league-wide pass-rates. On average,…...

Game script: A concept easy to understand in the abstract but difficult to distill into quantifiable data. Those of us who play DFS understand game script through experience. A team gets down two scores early and begins to take more risks in the passing game. At the same time, the team with the lead begins to run the ball conservatively to burn time and keep…...

Everyone knows about the RB Apocalypse in 2015. First-round running backs averaged 29 points below replacement that season. That wasn’t the case at all in 2018. Four first-rounders scored more than 300 points, and the group averaged 69 points above replacement even with Le’Veon Bell’s bagel. On the surface, these two years couldn’t be any more different, and yet a weird thing happens when we…...

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a Wide Receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Every year there are outliers who catch touchdowns at a higher or lower rate than one would expect based on their targets and yards in that season. Perception about a player’s ability to score touchdowns — and…...

Shawn Siegele deploys the RotoViz Screener to provide all the key stats on fourth-year breakouts at the wide receiver position. Fantasy leagues are won by rostering breakout players. This is also makes these players an obvious trap. How much sense does it make to go through your draft selecting players who haven’t been productive? In 20 Rounds of Death, I detailed each of my 20…...

Shawn Siegele provides all the key stats you need to know about fifth-year breakouts at the wide receiver position. Fantasy leagues are won by rostering breakout players, but it’s obviously not as simple as going through your draft and selecting players who haven’t been productive to that point. Reaching for unproductive players and being overweight on trendy breakout candidates is a quick ticket to last…...

  In the previous installment of Vacated Expected Points, we looked at RBs to target based on the amount of vacated rushing expected points. In this installment, we’ll see which wide receivers are in situations where they can command a high volume of receiving expected points. Be sure to check out the previous article for an explanation of vacated expected points. The first thing that’s…...

  “Vacated targets” and “vacated carries” are common ways to look at the available team volume. Antonio Brown leaving Pittsburgh opened up 168 targets. Total up all of the targets of players who left in free agency, retired, were traded, or got suspended and those are the targets available for current or incoming players. This view doesn’t account for a number of factors but it…...

  The Seattle Seahawks released veteran wide receiver Doug Baldwin on Thursday afternoon with a failed physical designation — what is the fantasy fallout in Seattle? Baldwin is expected to hang them up at just 30-years old, a sad and somewhat unexpected end to his eight-year tenure in Seattle. My understanding is that this is likely the end of the road for Doug Baldwin just…...

  Last offseason I introduced a metric I called Backfield Dominator Rating (BDR). BDR measures the percentage of running back production that a college RB accounts for in his offense. In other words, it adjusts for offensive systems or for quarterbacks who, for whatever reason, don’t utilize RBs in the passing game.((And it also adjusts for teams that tend to use wide receivers in the running…...

  Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith((Smith was not counted as a Week 1 OL starter, though one of his four snaps in that game happened to be as a tight end on the Colts’ first offensive play. Indy’s defense turned an Andy Dalton pick into a Colts possession starting from the Bengals’ 7-yard line. Smith went on to play 75% of the Colts’ offensive snaps in 2019…...

Man, I feel like one of those guys on “House Surgery” or “House Eye for the House Guy” because I look around RotoViz today and it’s unrecognizable! Have you clicked some of these links? This site is a straight up stunner. They used to say Steve Jobs’ brilliance was in showing you what you didn’t even realize you desperately needed. It almost makes me want…...

Will the Saints make substantial moves in free agency and how will this impact the fantasy landscape? Dave Caban reviews New Orlean’s 2018 season, outlines players the team will lose to free agency and considers free agent targets…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

Neil Dutton reviews Washington’s 2018 season, outlines players the team could lose to free agency and offers his thoughts on potential reinforcements the team should look to sign. 2018 IN SUMMARY Heading into a Week 11 home game against the Houston Texans, Washington was 6-3 and very much in the hunt for the NFC East title. After a 23-21 loss in a game that saw…...

Will the Vikings make substantial moves in free agency and how will this impact the fantasy landscape? Dave Caban reviews Minnesota’s 2018 season, outlines players the team will lose to free agency and considers free agent targets…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

Neil Dutton reviews the Oakland Raiders 2018 season, outlines players the team could lose to free agency and offers his thoughts on potential reinforcements the team should look to sign. 2018 IN SUMMARY 2018 was the first year of the second coming of Jon Gruden for the Oakland Raiders, and it is fair to say that it wasn’t exactly a banner one. The Raiders posted a…...

Will the Texans make substantial moves in free agency and how will this impact the fantasy landscape? Hasan Rahim reviews the Houston Texans’ 2018 season, outlines players the team will lose to free agency and considers free agent targets. Free agency and salary data included in this article was sourced from OverTheCap. The Texans are currently projected to have $74,930,215 in cap space for 2019, assuming the league’s new salary cap is…...

Neil Dutton reviews the Detroit Lions 2018 season, outlines players the team could lose to free agency and offers his thoughts on potential reinforcements the team should look to sign. 2018 IN SUMMARY After back to back 9-7 campaigns, the Detroit Lions brought the Jim Caldwell era to an end after the 2017 season. In his stead, they appointed New England Patriots defensive coordinator Matt…...