Analysis

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

David Montgomery’s 2020 Outlook: The Light Is Dim, But It’s Still On

RotoViz is continuing our look back on the 2019 rookies with a peek at Chicago Bears running back David Montgomery. Montgomery was, without a doubt, one of the fantasy community’s favorite rookie running backs in 2019 — but did he live up to expectations? And what can we expect from David Montgomery during the 2020 fantasy football season? David Montgomery’s Rookie Season Montgomery was, overall,…...

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Is It Time to Give Up On Mike Williams?

A lot of digital ink has been spilled musing about what the deal is with Mike Williams. Just days after he Williams was drafted we were already wondering about the future of Keenan Allen. One year later and after an injury-plagued rookie season, Shawn Siegele kept buying him. Fast-forward to last August and we were giving Williams the highest of potential floors. Just this past…...

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Will Noah Fant Follow in George Kittle’s Footsteps?

We have kept you waiting for this during our rookie review series. But wait no longer, gentle reader, for our first tight end review is finally here. Denver Broncos rookie Noah Fant is the first of his position to come under our microscope, and reviewing his rookie campaign certainly makes for interesting reading. For those in need of a reminder, Fant was one of the…...

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Is Allen Lazard Green Bay’s True WR2?

It’s safe to say no one predicted Allen Lazard’s second season given just what he did as an undrafted rookie in 2018. Lazard played exactly one game — one snap, actually — for the Packers in 2018. He was targeted by DeShone Kizer, caught the pass, and gained 7 yards. That’s some efficiency right there! Jokes aside, Lazard’s “real” debut-season took place in 2019 as…...

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D.K. Metcalf’s Historical Comps are Simply Unreal

D.K. Metcalf‘s fall to the end of the second round was one of the biggest surprises of the 2019 NFL Draft. Early in the offseason, he was projected to be one of the first wide receivers off the board in late April, but concerns about his route-running versatility and agility caused his stock to tumble. In a touching YouTube video posted by the Seahawks that…...

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Should We Care About Volatility?

High-variance, volatile football players, the Will Fullers and Amari Coopers of our day, the risky bets — we all know those players, and most of all we all know about what they can do — for good and for bad. When was the last time you trusted Will Fuller or Amari Cooper to go off the charts and they let you down? You probably don’t…...

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Which Anthony Miller Should We Expect in 2020?

Two years in the NFL, two years outside of the top-50 best wide receivers in fantasy football. That’s the quickest of ways I can think of to give you an overly simplified summary of what Anthony Miller’s career has been up to the end of the 2019 season. It’s not pretty and gets less so when you consider he will be playing his third season…...

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Will Deebo Samuel Keep Flying High In a Run-Heavy San Francisco Offense?

I remember the hot days of August. Actually, I miss them. They can’t get back soon enough. This past summer, most fantasy owners were anticipating their drafts while having a very clear name in their minds when it came to the San Francisco 49ers wide receiver position: Dante Pettis. As a second-year player and after finishing his rookie season posting more than 13 PPR in…...

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Is Preston Williams the Next UDFA Star?

Exceptions to the norm tend to throw people off their game. Take Phillip Lindsay, for example. The undrafted running back from Colorado became the first undrafted offensive rookie to be selected to the Pro Bowl. He also became the first undrafted running back to break the 1,000-yard rushing mark in back-to-back seasons. Talk about a difficult player to appropriately evaluate. Another player who is primed…...

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Is Minshew Mania a Long-Term Solution in Jacksonville?

The other quarterbacks I’ve reviewed so far in this series all came into the NFL with a high pedigree. They were first-round draft picks after all. This player went much later in the proceedings. Yet in his way, he was perhaps the most exciting of all the first-year signal-callers. Let’s look back at the rookie year of Gardner Minshew. By The Numbers Minshew started 12…...

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A Slight Increase In Opportunities Might Push Hunter Renfrow Through The Roof

As much as I love Hunter Renfrow these days (it took time for me to get there, believe me), I can’t lie to you in assessing his rookie season. Renfrow was a good first-year wide receiver, but he was far from a world-beater. In fact, Renfrow (133.5) couldn’t even beat his teammate Tyrell Williams (143.1) for the most PPR points in the season, even playing…...

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Jared Goff May Be Dwayne Haskins’ Ceiling

The latest player to fall under our curious gaze in our rookie review series was the third quarterback taken in the 2019 NFL Draft. Washington spent the 15th overall selection on Ohio State signal-caller Dwayne Haskins. I’m betraying no oaths when I say that Haskins did not exactly take the NFL by storm in his first year. But he is not fully to blame for…...

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Is Daniel Jones the Next Marcus Mariota?

Continuing our look back on the 2019 rookies, let’s take a look at the New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones. His selection was not without controversy or even outright debate. But regardless of whether the Giants should have taken their signal-caller in 2018 or not, they got Jones. Let’s break it down. By The Numbers Despite claims that he could spend his entire rookie season…...

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Diontae Johnson’s Historical Comps Indicate He’s on the Verge of a Sophomore Breakout

Diontae Johnson had an incredible rookie season. There’s no other way to put it. Although his end-of-year numbers — 59 receptions for 680 yards and five scores — don’t really jump off the page, the Toledo product managed to post positive Fantasy Points Over Expectation (FPOE) despite playing in one of the worst situations imaginable. Before the season, it looked like one of the best…...

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You’re Probably Way Too Low on Darius Slayton

Not many people were talking about Darius Slayton in fantasy football last offseason. He was a fifth-round draft pick who missed the majority of OTAs and training camp with a hamstring injury. His production profile and paltry draft equity suggested that finding any level of success in the NFL was always going to be a long shot for Slayton, and the lingering summer injury all but put…...

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Kyler Murray Is Primed for a Second-Year Leap

The 2019 NFL season is officially over. The last game of the 100th season of the NFL is in the books. There will be no more pads hitting pads, referees whistles (or flags), touchdowns or turnovers until September. Here we will be looking back on the rookie season of the player taken with the first overall selection in last year’s NFL Draft, and looking forward…...

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Examining Wide Receiver Production After a Team Change: Can You Trust Odell Beckham in 2020?

Odell Beckham was primed to go absolutely nuts. He had never averaged fewer than 75.5 yards per game in a season and had consistently been an elite WR1 when healthy. And he did it with Eli Manning at quarterback. Now that he had Baker Mayfield — who was coming off of a season in which he set the rookie passing touchdown record — the sky appeared to…...

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Fantasy or Reality – John Ross is the New Brandin Cooks

In his weekly series, Fantasy or Reality, Curtis Patrick explores major fantasy football developments and exposes them as – you guessed it – fantasy or reality. Using a combination of fantasy stats, RotoViz metrics, and real football situational analysis, this series promises bold, actionable takeaways that will help you be a fantasy football winner. Fantasy or Reality – John Ross is the new Brandin Cooks…...

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Zero RB Shangri La: How Season-Long Game Script Affects Running Back Production, Part 5

Welcome back to my NFL Game Script series, where I examine how game script affects running back fantasy production in season-long redraft and best ball formats. In Part 1, I broke up our running back sample into quartiles based on their teams’ preseason Vegas Win Totals: Quartile 1 is composed of players from teams with a Vegas Win Total of 9.5 or higher. Quartile 2…...

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The Consistent, The Consistently Inconsistent, and Why We Should Stop Worrying and Just Buy Fantasy Points

Last year, Tre’Quan Smith scored 88.7 points in PPR leagues, finishing as the WR72. His preseason ADP was 219.2 (WR103). While he did finish 31 spots above his positional ADP, you wouldn’t exactly call him a league-winner. Tyler Boyd, on the other hand, was a league-winner. His ADP was even higher than Smith’s at 226.7 (WR143). In fact, his ADP was so high that he…...

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