The NFL Draft is only hours away, and when it comes we will get our most telling indication of how our favorite prospect’s NFL careers might go. Nothing predicts NFL success better than draft position, in part because nothing determines early NFL opportunity quite like draft position. But just because draft position is the most predictive metric, that doesn’t mean it’s entirely efficient. What do…...

Since releasing Breakaway Rush Score (BRS) in 2020, it’s been one of our favorite metrics to use for evaluating running back prospects. Not only does it have one of the stronger relationships with fantasy points earned by a player in their first three seasons of all the metrics we look at, but it also helps us to confirm if a player truly is “explosive” or…...

With the draft now less than a week away, Shawn Siegele provides advanced stats for every rookie ranked No. 25 to 36 in his dynasty superflex rankings. This series has been even more fun than I anticipated, which is exactly what you’re hoping for when you set out (and definitely not always the case). In Part 1 of the Rookie Rankings Series, I debated the value…...

In Part 1 of the Rookie Rankings Series, I broke down my current top 12 with the draft just a week away. Although several surprises popped up in the first round, I saved the biggest riser to kick off Round 2. In this series, I’m using the first three rounds of a hypothetical rookie draft as a framework for ranking players and dividing them into…...

In The Wrong Read, No. 76, Blair Andrews dives into the definition of a breakout season for collegiate WR prospects and suggests a path for improving the metric. We’ve long defined a wide receiver breakout as a player’s first season in which they achieve a 30% dominator rating. While that has proven to be among the most accurate and discerning measures of college breakouts, it’s…...

Shawn Siegele breaks down the 2023 rookie landscape ahead of the NFL draft and explains why he’s departing from the mainstream with three of his early selections. If you’ve been listening to our NFL draft series on RotoViz Overtime with fantastic guests like Travis May and Patrick Kerrane (with more heavy hitters to come), you know I’ve been teasing this series where I dive into…...

Stefan Lako looks at one of the most controversial NFL draft prospects and explains why Will Levis has dire red flags you must consider before grabbing him in rookie drafts. The NFL draft is just weeks away and people are calling their shots on who will be the next Patrick Mahomes, Saquon Barkley, and Justin Jefferson. And on the other side of that equation we…...

Heading into the 2021 draft, Ja’Marr Chase was lauded by many as one of the best wide receiver prospects to enter the NFL in a decade. He was the highest-ranked prospect in our Rookie Guide that season and sat inside our top 20 dynasty rankings prior to the NFL Draft. Why were we, and many others, so optimistic about his future? It was pretty simple…....

Draft age is one of the most important metrics when evaluating prospects, at all positions. Across the board we see that players who are drafted at a younger age are more successful at nearly every stage of their careers, and are successful for longer than their peers that were drafted at an older age. There are few prospect metrics that have more predictive power than…...

With the combine in the rear-view mirror, 2023 NFL prospect turn their focus to their college team’s pro day. Pro days give players the opportunity to perform in front of scouts at their own facilities. Most posted times are unofficial. However, players can improve upon NFL combine results and showcase their skills in position drills. Let’s look at how each of the top prospects performed…...

Earlier this week I published the backfield dominator ratings (BDR) for the 2023 running back class. Chase Brown ranked No. 4 in BDR, thanks in large part to the number of opportunities he saw in Illinois’ offense. He had at least 20 touches and surpassed 100 total yards in every single game. Opponent RuAtts RuYds RuTDs RuAttMS RuYdMS Recs ReYds ReTDs Touches TotalYds Wyoming 19…...

Production is nearly always undervalued at the running back position. In part that’s because it’s not always the easiest thing to measure. Yes, we can easily look at the leaderboards in rushing and receiving yards and see who compiled the biggest numbers. But doing so leaves out a lot of context. For one thing, it doesn’t tell us much about a player’s offensive environment? Was…...

It’s hard not to love explosive running backs – players who can take a handoff, find a hole, juke past a linebacker, and race to the end zone. These are the type of plays that circle through our minds as we think about how a player’s skill set will translate to the NFL. There’s no denying that they’re exciting, but if they don’t translate to…...