Dave Caban shares his baseline 2024 projection for the Miami Dolphins while also considering the impacts of increases/decreases to market shares and team play volume. Every offseason, I undertake the process of creating projections for every team. In previous years, this involved developing a projection that I believed would represent the average performance of all relevant players if a given season were played out thousands…...

In recent weeks, I’ve gone through some of the most meaningful underlying WR stats, searching for players who might be overlooked relative to cost. If you have time, go back and see what I uncovered analyzing players with strong outputs in Air Yards and Yards per Route Run (YPRR). This week, I’ll put Target Market Share (reTRGMS) under the microscope. Target Market Share is a…...

Dave Caban shares his baseline 2024 projection for the Las Vegas Raiders while also considering the impacts of increases/decreases to market shares and team play volume. Every offseason, I undertake the process of creating projections for every team. In previous years, this involved developing a projection that I believed would represent the average performance of all relevant players if a given season were played out…...

Dave Caban shares his baseline 2024 projection for the New England Patriots while also considering the impacts of increases/decreases to market shares and team play volume. Every offseason, I undertake the process of creating projections for every team. In previous years, this involved developing a projection that I believed would represent the average performance of all relevant players if a given season were played out…...

Dave Caban shares his baseline 2024 projection for the Los Angeles Rams while also considering the impacts of increases/decreases to market shares and team play volume. Every offseason, I undertake the process of creating projections for every team. In previous years, this involved developing a projection that I believed would represent the average performance of all relevant players if a given season were played out…...

Last time, we looked at small gap running backs on two teams with a dominant veteran and potential breakouts to identify undervalued players based on their ADP. Today we’ll cover two more small gap running backs, including a veteran and a younger option. The idea of small gap and big gap RBs comes from Jack Miller’s research on the win and hit rates for big or small gap backs,…...

In my last article I highlighted one of ESPN Analytics Receiver Tracking Metrics: YAC Score. Deebo Samuel has been among the best in the league at YAC Score since his rookie season. And at least one Year 2 breakout candidate looks like he might be on a similar trajectory. But YAC Score isn’t the only metric ESPN tracks. In fact, one could say it’s not…...

Shawn Siegele explains why Josh Jacobs is a 2024 fantasy football trap play and helps you find his doppelganger at a multi-round discount. In 2022 Josh Jacobs was an absolute world burner from the Dead Zone, scoring 330 points and finishing as the RB3. Unfortunately, he returned to his previous levels of performance in 2023, missed a few games with injury, and left fantasy managers…...

Shawn Siegele looks at the evidence for 2024’s biggest running back value and wonders whether we’re getting LeSean McCoy circa 2016 all over again.  LeSean McCoy’s 2016 season occurred at the intersection of trends that reverberate forward to the present. We were coming off the 2015 RB Apocalypse, and ADP moved heavily in favor of WRs. A short-lived RB Golden Age was about to start…....