Peyton Manning and Blake Bortles are Undervalued Relative to Their Receivers

Kevin Cole
April 16, 2015

I’ve been thinking a lot lately about the benefit of de-emphasizing player-specific analysis that is largely baked into ADP, and instead focusing on relationships between players’ prices to identify historically favorable risk/reward opportunities. I’ve already looked at how prediction markets can help us find find undervalued rookies and what usage tendencies can tell us about the value of running backs in 2015. This arbitrage analysis was sparked by tweets from Fantasy Douche highlighting Tom Brady’s potential value in light of how high Rob Gronkowski is going in current My Fantasy League MFL10 drafts,^[1]He’s the second highest drafted player after Le’Veon Bell a similar concept to that of an article he wrote last year about how Jay Cutler may have been undervalued throwing to two wide receivers drafted in the first two rounds.

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Footnotes[+]Footnotes[−]

Footnotes
↑1	He’s the second highest drafted player after Le’Veon Bell

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Kevin Cole

The Tom Brady Halo Effect

Kevin Cole June 13, 2017

Winning in fantasy football isn’t as easy as the “just pick the right players” crowd would have you believe. Winning – not in a single league, but consistently – is the result of finding the overlooked advantages that together create a sustainable edge. I focus much of my analysis on price, where the market is telling us the collective wisdom of the crowd, and history can enlighten…...

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Opportunity Scores: The Top Landing Spots for Rookie Wide Receivers

Kevin Cole April 5, 2017

A couple years ago, I attempted to create a numbers-based formula for determining which teams are the best landing spots for rookie wide receivers. In fantasy and real football, performance is largely a function of opportunity, whether created through talent, draft position or a lack of roster competition…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in...

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Deshaun Watson, Mitchell Trubisky and the Importance of Sample Size

Kevin Cole April 3, 2017

I was happy to see Rotoworld’s Josh Norris recognize the importance of sample size while recently predicting that the analytical wizards with the Cleveland Browns will prefer Deshaun Watson to Mitchell Trubisky come draft day. … Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...