When the Patriots chose to begin the season with Jacoby Brissett as their starter, it seemed like they were trying to protect Drake Maye from the unfavorable situation they had built (or failed to build) around him. After the decision to start Brissett was made, Mat Irby noted that once New England made it through a rough opening schedule, Maye could find himself starting for the Patriots, and excel for fantasy managers once he found the field.
As if peering into a crystal ball, the situation has played out exactly as Mat had projected. Maye took over as starter in Week 6, and at that point the Patriots had a 1-4 record. Since then, New England has gone 2-7. While the results in reality are not as pronounced as fans would have hoped for, the difference between Brissett and Maye in fantasy is night and day.
In Brissett’s five starts, he was not able to average double-digit fantasy points, and was just barely able to crack the QB2 barrier in his best game of the season.
In Maye’s time as starter, he has only failed to finish as a QB2 or better in one game, while coming in as the QB12 in fantasy scoring over that span.
In hindsight, it also does not appear that New England did Maye any favors by waiting to put him in. The team ended up facing an overall favorable schedule in the first five games of the season versus an overall unfavorable schedule since then.
In Maye’s time as starter, he has also been able to make the best of one of the worst supporting casts in the league. Both Hunter Henry and DeMario Douglas found themselves worthy of spots on fantasy rosters while Maye has been under center, after having almost no value through the first five games of the season.
Since Week 6, Henry has been the PPR TE11. Douglas ranks as the PPR WR44 in that same timeframe. While not overly impressive, Douglas’ standing as the top WR on the team makes a lot more sense when looking at the WR corps Maye has had at his disposal.
The fact that Maye has been able to accomplish so much with so little in his rookie season points to a bright future. How has he been able to do it, and how high is his ceiling?
2024 Production
When looking at why Maye has been effective in his rookie season, the simple answer is rushing. Not only is he getting a fairly consistent rushing workload, but Maye has yet to finish with negative FPOE as a rusher in any game that he has started.
The Patriots may find more success if they lean further into Maye as a rusher. Since entering the starting lineup in Week 6, his 26.2 rushing FPOE are the most of any QB despite ranking 13th in rushing EP at the position.
Sadly, the passing game has been a different story. Since Week 6, Maye has ranked as the QB18 in passing EP. In those games, he has underperformed expectation twice as many times as he has exceeded it. When looking at Maye’s time as starter, his average of -1.2 FPOE per game (FPOE/GM) as a passer ranks at QB41.
If there is any optimism to pull from the situation, it is that Maye has objectively outperformed Brissett as a passer when comparing their times leading the Patriots’ offense.
With Brissett’s history as a legitimate bridge QB for multiple NFL teams, the fact that Maye has surpassed him as a passer in the same situation points to Maye developing into a more efficient passer when (if?) he gets better weapons around him.
All told, Maye’s efficiency profile balances out fairly well. Averaging the 13th-most FPOE/GM at the position should be seen as a win. With plenty of meat left on the bone as both a rusher and passer, we could be seeing quite the Year-2 jump from Maye if the Patriots buck their consistent stance of refusing to add difference-makers at receiver.
Dynasty Outlook
According to Over The Cap, the Patriots’ $132 million in cap space for the 2025 season is by far the most of any team in the NFL. New England also has all of their picks, in addition to the Falcons’ third-round pick, and is currently slotted to pick second in the 2025 draft order. With the Patriots already having their franchise QB in tow, they are in perfect position to sell off their pick to the highest bidder and still grab an elite talent. With the Raiders, Titans, and Jets currently slotted in the top-eight picks, and all in need of a QB, the Patriots are in prime position to reap the rewards of the annual QB bidding war.
With an embarrassment of assets at their disposal, if the Patriots do not add at least one high-grade weapon for Maye this offseason it will be a travesty. The dream scenario would see them trade back and still be able to select Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan inside the top-10 picks. But why stop there? Either through the draft or free agency, there is no reason New England cannot add multiple starting WRs for Maye to grow alongside. Let’s just hope the Patriots can get out of their own way and realize that the whole is not always greater than the sum of its parts when it comes to their WR corps.
With the idea in mind that New England will add at least one high-value weapon before the start of Maye’s second season, he is a clear buy in Superflex dynasty leagues. Dynasty managers may still be anchoring to the negativity that clung to him when he was drafted by New England, and that is a stance that can be exploited.
As the QB7, and 17th player overall, in the latest update of the RotoViz Triflex Rankings, Maye shares a tier with Jordan Love and Patrick Mahomes. There will be dynasty managers who will be willing to give up Maye plus another asset in order to acquire either of those two QBs. As soon as the trade window opens back up, gauging where the Maye owners in your leagues stand on him could prove to be a fruitful exercise. But acting fast will be important, as the narrative around Maye could change quickly once people realize how drastically his situation may change in 2025.
