Welcome to The Wrong Read. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to try to understand how an upcoming matchup might play out in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be when trying to pass? How much will they be able to run the ball?

It’s impossible to answer these questions definitively, but by exploring the advanced metrics we can better understand the dynamics that might not show up in the box score every week. We can use these metrics to find hidden signal that could indicate how a team wants to play football and how likely they are to be able to play the way they want against an upcoming opponent.

The numbers below obviously can’t fully account for new or recent changes in personnel or injuries — in cases where that matters I’ll point it out. But we can still get a good sense of what to expect from each of these teams. I’ll highlight the most salient features of the matchup below each graphic. The notes below focus on how the matchups and injury news could impact fantasy performances.

One note on the images below: All rankings and colors assume the offense’s point of a view. So a No. 1 ranking in a defensive metric indicates they are the easiest matchup for opposing offenses to face. Likewise, a No. 32 ranking indicates a team is the most difficult matchup. This makes it much easier to glance at the images and see which matchups are most favorable for the offense.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

• Detroit lists both Amon-Ra St. Brown and David Montgomery as questionable, though both practiced in full on Wednesday.
• Both would have favorable matchups if active. The Bears’ only strength in stopping the run is their ability to limit yards after contact. Their only strength in stopping the pass is that they can’t stop the run, which limits opponent passing volume. I guess that’s something.
  
  • They do generate pressure on a high percentage of dropbacks, but are surprisingly slow at creating that pressure.
  • Jared Goff shouldn’t have issues against Chicago’s pass rush, but he also might not drop back to throw often.
• Chicago’s clearest path to success is to run the ball — Detroit gives up more yards before contact than all but seven teams.
  
  • Of course, the overwhelming likelihood is they will be playing from behind, and will have to throw. This is problematic against a Lions’ defense that blitzes more than any other team, and allows less EPA per pass than any other team.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

• With Drew Lock in line to start against Dallas, this game doesn’t appear to be the Giants’ best opportunity for a win, even against a weak (on paper) opponent.
• On the other hand, no team allows more EPA per rush than the Cowboys, and New York has been among the most explosive rushing teams over the last six weeks. Look for extra work for Tyrone Tracy.
• While both Cooper Rush and CeeDee Lamb were on the injury report earlier, they enter the game without a designation. Lamb has seen 12 targets in each of the last two games, and against a Giants’ defense that is slowest in the league to get to opposing QBs, Rush will have time to find him.

Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers

• Romeo Doubs has been ruled out after suffering a concussion in Week 12. Jordan Love attempted very few passes in that game, but Jayden Reed was still the second-most targeted player behind Doubs.
• The Dolphins give up a lot of separation and a lot of YAC over expected — both Reed and Dontayvion Wicks could benefit.
• Miami has scored 34 points in back-to-back games, and if they get a similar offensive output against Green Bay, the Packers will have to throw more than they did last week.
• Tyreek Hill is off the injury report, but his wrist remains a concern, as it supposedly may impact his ability to catch the ball.
  
  • Jaylen Waddle and Jonnu Smith made up for Hill’s lack of production in Week 12, and they may need a repeat performance against a potent Green Bay offense.
• That said, it may be easier to run the ball against the Packers. De’Von Achane is skilled enough to take advantage of Green Bay’s mediocre rankings in rushing yards over expected and EPA per rush.

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs

• Isiah Pacheco makes his return against a difficult yet still beatable matchup. The Raiders allow more RYOE than all but seven teams.
  
  • However, Kareem Hunt will still command some volume, and Pacheco might be on a pitch count.
• The Raiders are in many ways a much easier team to throw against. Although they occasionally get to the QB quickly, that happens on a relatively low percentage of dropbacks. And it comes at the expense of tight coverage against WRs, all of which leads to a No. 28 ranking in passing EPA allowed.
• The other return worth noting is that of Aidan O’Connell. O’Connell has shown an even greater willingness than other Raiders’ QBs to target Brock Bowers.

• Alexander Mattison is also returning to the lineup, but there are no cases I can think of in which I would recommend starting a Raiders’ RB.