Need a weird name or deep trade option? Shawn Siegele breaks down his favorite fantasy RB plays in the Zero RB Universe.

We’ve reached the final week of the regular season in FFPC redraft leagues. The FFPC dynasty trade deadline hits Saturday evening. With these key dates hurtling toward us, let’s start today with a broader look at some of this season’s key developments.

• Kenneth Walker is only averaging 4.0 yards per carry, but his 27.4% evasion rate is No. 2 in the NFL. Part of this is due to Walker’s penchant for reversing field and evading tackles without gaining yards, but this tendency is almost certainly enhanced by Seattle’s poor run blocking. By the SIS charting, Seattle ranks dead last in run blocking points earned. Despite that, Walker’s EP combo is strong (16 EP/2.4 FPOE). He does have a brutal remaining schedule, but he’s also an excellent long-term buy. I like Walker to lead the position in scoring at least once in the next three years.
• Among backs with at least 75 carries, Bucky Irving is the only player to average at least 2.5 yards after contact (2.9), 2.0 yards before contact (2.1), and a 20% evasion rate (24%). He also has the lowest bust rate and ranks No. 4 in points above average per attempt.
• James Conner ranks No. 1 in evasion rate (29%) and No. 1 in PAA/A. Despite that, he’s at only 0.9 FPOE/G, in part because long speed does matter. He’s still having an excellent season and, even with the recent incursions from Trey Benson, is averaging 15.2 PPG and has posted RB2 or better scoring in eight of 10 contests.
• Only Tank Bigsby and Brian Robinson are averaging more yards after contact than Bijan Robinson (3.1). The Atlanta star ranks No. 4 in WAR as a rusher and rounds out his portfolio with the third-most RB routes as he heads into his bye. Ideally that would translate into more than 6.7 reEP/G.
• It’s infuriating to watch the loaded Detroit Lions give so many touches to David Montgomery each week, but his production deserves recognition. He has the highest positive percentage (53%) as a rusher and the highest yards per route run (2.3) as a receiver (min. 20 targets). Montgomery trails Derrick Henry 13.6 to 13.4 in EP/G and 7.1 to 3.1 in FPOE/G.
• Last week, I discussed Henry’s crazy FPOE numbers and the mild dangers in his overall profile. He responded with a 10.3 EP/2.2 FPOE game against the Steelers. Even in a game that reduces the FPOE average, Henry is still well in the positive. He ranks No. 5 in PAA/A and is averaging 6.0 yards per carry with a 17% evasion rate.
• Jahmyr Gibbs has almost double the evasion rate of Saquon Barkley (21% to 11%) and is crushing the league with 3.8 yards before contact per attempt. Henry (6.0), Gibbs (6.0), and Barkley (5.8) have gapped the rest of the NFL on a per-carry basis, and Gibbs has the best evasion rate of the group. The group has similar peripherals, but Henry’s boom percentage (10.2%) gives him the serious edge in WAR. Gibbs is mostly missing volume due to his timeshare with Montgomery, but like his running mate, he adds value back in the passing game. Gibbs ranks No. 6 in yards per route, and No. 2 in first-down percentage (47.8%) as a receiver.
• No one gets stuffed more frequently than Rachaad White (26%), but the next two names are mild surprises (De’Von Achane, Breece Hall). The Jets have the NFL’s worst blown-block percentage in the running game (and a bottom-five graded run blocking unit), while the Dolphins are among the five worst. For context, 71 of Achane’s 73 yards in Week 11 came after contact. Fortunately, both teams understand the need to involve their dynamic backs as receivers, hopefully getting them out of traffic at least on occasion. Hall is No. 1 in routes and No. 2 receiving yards. The duo is tied for second with 46 receptions, and Achane will likely go ahead with Hall on the bye this week. Each player averages 8.0 reEP/G. Achane has the fifth-hardest remaining schedule, so receptions should continue to play a huge role in his attempt to win leagues.
• Given that the Panthers have one of the highest blown-block rates and that they face stacked boxes at an average rate, it’s impressive that Chuba Hubbard has one of the best stuff rates (13.7%). Sometimes it’s better not to run the play as called. Hubbard has the second-lowest designed gap rate in the NFL, just above Joe Mixon, who is also thriving. Hubbard is also among the leaders in yards after contact (3.1), giving him an extremely well-rounded profile as a runner. Although his peripherals have bounced around a bit the last several years, the contract extension was earned on the field.
• Kareem Hunt has the lowest evasion rate in the NFL two years after Isiah Pacheco had one of the lowest in 2022. (Pacheco’s was slightly higher in 2023, but still mediocre.) This year the Chiefs’ yards before contact numbers have also cratered, as Blair noted last week. Further investigation in the NFL Pace tool reveals that Kansas City is both slow to the snap and run-heavy in neutral scripts. The Chiefs have emphasized WR additions, but K.C. simply needs a lot more talent at RB if they’re going to slog their way through. Pacheco’s impending return will help, but it’s not a game-changer.

The 8 Names You Need to Know for This Week and the Fantasy Playoffs

The Zero RB Universe dives into start/sit decisions, dynasty trades, and look-ahead FA stashes. We’ll rely on the Weekly Stat Explorer, the RotoViz Screener, the Advanced Stat Explorer, Advanced Team Stat Explorer, the Strength of Schedule Streamer, the NFL Pace tool, the Matchup Analysis tab from the NFL Player Explorer, and more. 

Join us with the play-off push special on our three-month sub.