When looking at Cade Otton’s production profile coming out of college, there was nothing that would have pointed to him being anything more than a rotational tight end at the NFL level. Yes, he did have a 52% dominator rating in 2020, but it came in a small four-game sample. His next highest dominator rating was 16%, and it came in his first season at Washington. Otton was also able to put up an impressive 13.4 yards per reception in his first college season, but that number decreased in every year (with the exclusion of the covid-shortened 2020 season).
Otton was not able to do any athletic testing at the combine or his pro day. With that being said, his sims in the BSS based on his size, draft capital, and college statistics were not enough to suggest that he would become a difference maker at the NFL level.
Despite the lack of testing, Otton was still drafted by the Buccaneers as an early fourth-round pick in what would turn out to be Tom Brady’s final season. Tampa Bay already had two established tight ends on the roster in Cameron Brate and Kyle Rudolph. But both veterans ended up missing time in 2022, opening the door for Otton to get some opportunities in his rookie year.
Otton was able to show some promise in his first season, finishing just outside TE2 territory as the PPR TE26.
As the Buccaneers’ clear TE1 heading into 2023, Otton saw slightly less high-end production in his second year with Baker Mayfield taking over at quarterback. But he was able to average more PPR points per game compared to his rookie season on his way to finishing as 2023’s TE20.
Heading into 2024, Otton looked like he may be worthy of a spot start at best for fantasy managers. Through the first two games of the season, even that projection looked generous. Thankfully, Week 3 brought better results. Since then, Otton has five TE1 weeks and has never fallen below a TE2.
Otton looked well on his way to being a viable low-end fantasy starter even before disaster struck the Buccaneers receivers in Week 7. Mike Evans aggravated a lingering hamstring injury that will keep him out until Week 12, and Chris Godwin suffered a season-ending ankle injury in the final minutes of the game. To that point in the season, Godwin was the overall PPR WR2, while Evans was the WR15.
Prior to the injuries, Otton had been seeing consistent volume as the team’s third option in the passing game. Once Evans and Godwin went down, Otton became the team’s clear primary option, finishing as the overall TE1 and TE3 in Week 8 and Week 9, respectively.
After Otton’s two big games in the past two weeks, he now sits at PPR TE3 for the 2024 season. It feels like a lock for Otton to be a staple in fantasy lineups until Evans is able to return, but what does his future look like for the duration of this season and beyond?
With the lack of athletic testing prior to being drafted, getting a true idea of the type of player Otton could be at the NFL level was more difficult than normal. With two full seasons of NFL production, things become a little bit easier. After digging a little deeper with the RotoViz Screener’s Similarity Search, we get some considerably more intriguing results than we saw in the BSS.
Obviously, not all of the names are winners, but they rarely will be when we’re dealing with the TE position. For us old-timers, names like Vernon Davis, Greg Olsen, and Todd Heap are very exciting, as the trio together combined for 16 TE1 seasons. Nine of those seasons landed in the top five at the position, including Heap’s overall PPR TE1 season in 2002. For new-school fantasy managers, comps to Cole Kmet, Dalton Kincaid, and Jake Ferguson should pique some interest, but still do not compare to heights of the older generation. It is still premature to say that Otton will reach the levels of his older comps, but slotting him at or above his contemporaries is not a stretch.
Now that we have determined Otton has some legitimate career upside even before factoring in his 2024 breakout, we need to see if Otton is likely to keep his hot streak going once Evans returns to the lineup.
CADE OTTON 2024 PASS BY LOCATION
CHRIS GODWIN 2024 PASS BY LOCATION
MIKE EVANS 2024 PASS BY LOCATION
When he was active this season, Godwin was earning a 27% target share compared to Evans’ 19%. With the past two games factored in, Otton currently sits at a 20% target share for the season. While the areas where Evans and Otton do most of their work do not significantly overlap, the areas where Godwin and Otton have seen many of their targets do. Some of this may already be factored in due to the heavy usage Otton has seen in the past two games, but it looks like Evans and Otton will not have much difficulty coexisting on the field once the WR returns.
Once Evans is back in the lineup, it would not be shocking to see him garner nearly a 30% target share over the rest of the season. But that still leaves plenty of volume for Otton to continue to be a weekly staple of fantasy lineups at TE. The future beyond 2024 also looks optimistic for Otton, as Godwin is set to be a free agent this offseason. With the chemistry that Otton has shown with Mayfield, along with some intriguing comps Otton receives after his first two years in the league, there is enough of a basis to believe that the production we are seeing from him is more than a flash in the pan.
