Welcome to The Wrong Read. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to try to understand how an upcoming matchup might play out in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be when trying to pass? How much will they be able to run the ball?
It’s impossible to answer these questions definitively, but by exploring the advanced metrics we can better understand the dynamics that might not show up in the box score every week. We can use these metrics to find hidden signal that could indicate how a team wants to play football and how likely they are to be able to play the way they want against an upcoming opponent.
The numbers below obviously can’t fully account for new or recent changes in personnel or injuries — in cases where that matters I’ll point it out. But we can still get a good sense of what to expect from each of these teams. I’ll highlight the most salient features of the matchup below each graphic. I’m changing up the format of the notes from earlier in the season, to deliver the most relevant fantasy insights in a way that might be slightly easier to digest.
One note on the images below: All rankings and colors assume the offense’s point of a view. So a No. 1 ranking in a defensive metric indicates they are the easiest matchup for opposing offenses to face. Likewise, a No. 32 ranking indicates a team is the most difficult matchup. This makes it much easier to glance at the images and see which matchups are most favorable for the offense.
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons
- No team presents an easier passing matchup than the Cowboys.
- They allow more than 9 passing yards per play and have the slowest pass rush in the league.
- Meanwhile, the Falcons have one of the top passing offenses in most advanced metrics, ranking inside the top seven in passing yards per play, passing EPA, and YAC over expected.
- Kyle Pitts is coming off his best game of the season, and Dallas has struggled to defend tight ends over their last three games.
- Dallas’ passing matchup is also quite favorable, and the Cowboys rank No. 2 in passing plays per game.
- Only one team’s pass rush is less effective than Atlanta’s, while only five offensive lines are better than Dallas’. This game rightly has the highest over/under of the week (52).
- Not only are the Cowboys dead last in passing EPA allowed, they are also last in rushing EPA allowed.
- They are a bottom-nine defense in explosive run rate, rushing yards over expected, and yards before contact.
- They are good at limiting yards after contact, which is an area where Atlanta excels, but Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier should still be able to pick up yards on the ground.
- Dallas’ rushing matchup is a bit more difficult, though not because the Falcons have a particularly strong rush defense.
- The Cowboys are the league’s worst in nearly every advanced rushing metric, despite facing a higher rate of light boxes than any other team.
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens
- While the Ravens do have the top passing offense in the league, the Broncos have one of the top passing defenses.
- This matchup pits the No. 1 offense in passing EPA against the No. 1 defense in passing EPA allowed.
- Diontae Johnson’s arrival in Baltimore could help Lamar Jackson find open pass catchers, but this also may not be the best matchup for introducing a new receiver.
- Baltimore’s passing defense however is not as strong as their reputation.
- They play tight coverage, but otherwise let opposing offenses get pretty much what they want.
- Denver has not been the best passing team, but they’ve scored 28 points in three of their last four games. Bo Nix passed for 284 yards and three TDs in their last outing (albeit, against the Panthers).
- This appears to be a favorable matchup for most of Denver’s receivers.
- In this matchup, it’s likely Baltimore will prioritize Derrick Henry and the running game. They are No. 1 in rushing yards per play, RYOE, and YBCon.
- Denver’s rush defense is strong, but more vulnerable than their pass defense.
- The Broncos have looked better when running the ball after struggling earlier in the season, but against the Ravens they should keep the ball in the air. Few rushing defenses are stronger.
