Welcome to The Wrong Read. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to try to understand how an upcoming matchup might play out in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be when trying to pass? How much will they be able to run the ball?

It’s impossible to answer these questions definitively, but by exploring the advanced metrics we can better understand the dynamics that might not show up in the box score every week. We can use these metrics to find hidden signal that could indicate how a team wants to play football and how likely they are to be able to play the way they want against an upcoming opponent.

The numbers below obviously can’t fully account for new or recent changes in personnel or injuries — in cases where that matters I’ll point it out. But we can still get a good sense of what to expect from each of these teams. I’ll highlight the most salient features of the matchup below each graphic. I’m changing up the format of the notes from earlier in the season, to deliver the most relevant fantasy insights in a way that might be slightly easier to digest.

One note on the images below: All rankings and colors assume the offense’s point of a view. So a No. 1 ranking in a defensive metric indicates they are the easiest matchup for opposing offenses to face. Likewise, a No. 32 ranking indicates a team is the most difficult matchup. This makes it much easier to glance at the images and see which matchups are most favorable for the offense.

Houston Texans at New York Jets

• Houston will be without both Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs.
  
  • Collins is expected to return in Week 10, but in the meantime, Tank Dell is the clear top target. Dell ran the most routes of any Texans receiver in Week 8, but was targeted only four times.
  • Moreover, the Jets present one of the most difficult passing matchups. They are No. 3 in passing yards per play allowed, EPA allowed, and YAC over expected allowed. They also have a top-six pass rush, and only one team allows less average separation.
• With several receiving weapons out against a tough matchup, the Texans might try to run more.
  
  • Dameon Pierce will not play, but Joe Mixon has been surprisingly effective in many games this year.
  • However, New York is also a difficult team to run against. Only six teams allow fewer yards per play in the running game. Only four allow fewer rushing yards over expected or yards before contact.
• For as difficult as the Texans’ passing matchup is, the Jets’ matchup might be even worse.
  
  • Houston is the toughest matchup in terms of passing yards allowed per play. No team creates more pressure.
  • That said, no team has a more effective offensive line than the Jets. That pass blocking hasn’t yet translated into yards or points.
  • Allen Lazard was placed on IR and will miss at least four weeks. That should leave more targets for Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, and Breece Hall. Yet none of the other receivers get particularly good matchups, even according to the alignment data.

• Of course, Hall could still do some damage in the running game.
  
  • The Texans give up explosive runs at a higher rate than all but three teams. They also allow more yards after contact than all but three teams. On the season Hall is averaging only 3.9 yards per carry, but he still sports a 10% forced missed tackle rate. Against Houston he should be able to improve on his efficiency.
  • On the other hand, Braelon Allen handled 12 carries in New York’s Week 8 game, and although he struggled to gain yards, he did score the Jets’ lone rushing TD.