Welcome to The Wrong Read. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to try to understand how an upcoming matchup might play out in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be when trying to pass? How much will they be able to run the ball?
It’s impossible to answer these questions definitively, but by exploring the advanced metrics we can better understand the dynamics that might not show up in the box score every week. We can use these metrics to find hidden signal that could indicate how a team wants to play football and how likely they are to be able to play the way they want against an upcoming opponent.
The numbers below obviously can’t fully account for new or recent changes in personnel or injuries — in cases where that matters I’ll point it out. But we can still get a good sense of what to expect from each of these teams. I’ll highlight the most salient features of the matchup below each graphic. I’m changing up the format of notes for this week, to deliver the most relevant fantasy insights in a way that might be slightly easier to digest.
One note on the images below: All rankings and colors assume the offense’s point of a view. So a No. 1 ranking in a defensive metric indicates they are the easiest matchup for opposing offenses to face. Likewise, a No. 32 ranking indicates a team is the most difficult matchup. This makes it much easier to glance at the images and see which matchups are most favorable for the offense.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
- The Browns have not scored more than 18 points in a single game this season.
- They will be without Jerome Ford, but Nick Chubb will play for only the second time this season.
- Chubb rushed for just 22 yards on 11 carries in Week 7. Baltimore’s defense doesn’t look like it will make things easier.
- The Ravens are the most difficult rushing matchup in terms of total yards allowed, explosive run rate allowed, and yards after contact allowed. They have no weaknesses.
- Jameis Winston will start at quarterback. He’s only attempted 12 passes this season, but so far there’s sort of an inverse relation between the players he likes to target and the players he’s targeted successfully.
- Zay Flowers is listed as questionable, but did get in a limited practice on Friday. He appears to be on track to play.
- Yet, the Browns are one of the more difficult teams to throw against, and one of the easier teams to run against.
- Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson are set up for more big performances, but even if Jackson does well he may not bring his receivers along with him.
Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions
- Mason Rudolph attempted 40 passes last week but finished with only 215 yards.
- He was pressured on more than 52% of his dropbacks — a ridiculously high rate even for the No. 31-ranked offensive line.
- Not only will Rudolph be throwing behind a poor offensive line, he will also be without DeAndre Hopkins, who was recently traded to the Chiefs.
- The Lions’ pass rush doesn’t force much pressure, but that almost doesn’t matter against Tennessee, who ought to prefer to try to run out the clock by keeping the ball on the ground and out of Jared Goff’s hands.
- Tyjae Spears is questionable after being limited at practice all week. He is trending toward being a game-time decision.
- Only four teams give up more explosive plays per rush attempt than Detroit, and only two give up more yards before contact.
- The Lions are without Jameson Williams for the next two weeks, but that could open things up for Sam LaPorta to finally pay off for his drafters.
- The Titans don’t create much pressure and give up the 10th-most YAC over expected. Still, the Passing Game Matchup Rater isn’t convinced.
- Jahmyr Gibbs has handled three fewer carries than David Montgomery but gained more than 80 additional yards. Temper expectations for both in what is likely the most difficult matchup they will face all season.
