Shawn Siegele breaks down the Zero RB Universe with trade ideas, deep stashes, start/sit thoughts, and much more as we head toward Week 7 of the 2024 fantasy football season.
The Zero RB Universe is about understanding the position well enough to make those start/sit decisions easier, to help you win dynasty trades, to stay two steps out in front of your league with look-ahead FA stashes. To accomplish these goals, we’ll rely on the Weekly Stat Explorer, the RotoViz Screener, the Advanced Stat Explorer, Advanced Team Stat Explorer, the Strength of Schedule Streamer, the Matchup Analysis tab from the NFL Player Explorer, and more. We’ll benefit from the deep insights of the Sports Info Solutions stats and charting info that power many of our tools.
It’s easy to wave away the Sean Tucker eruption as a hundred-years-flood type event, especially against a collapsing Saints squad. And the Saints do appear to be collapsing, but the funny thing is that New Orleans came in with some strong rushing peripherals and were playing at home.
They almost entirely limited explosive runs and yards after contact. Do they allow some yards before contact?
Say hello to Sean Tucker, who gained 104 yards before contact on his way to averaging 9.7 yards per attempt.
It’s easy to feel like Tucker came out of nowhere, but it’s possible he’s just on his way to delayed stardom. Here’s the blurb for Tucker from the 2023 Zero RB Candidates Countdown: These Guys Are Electric and Almost Free.
Heading into the 2022 college season, he had a solid case as the No. 3 back in the class. During the 2021 campaign, he gained more total rushing yards and more rushing yards per game than either Breece Hall or Bijan Robinson, and though his 16% evasion rate wasn’t particularly strong, it allowed him to average 3.1 yards after contact due to his plus speed. He also posted a 97% RB dominator rating that year, catching 20 passes and finishing with over 1,700 yards from scrimmage.
Tucker regressed in 2022. Although his rushing peripherals remained similar, his explosiveness vanished and he lost a full yard per carry. He caught 36 additional passes, but his yards per route plummeted from 1.9 to below 1.0.
Following this disappointing finale, his draft process was beset by cryptic health developments. It appears that Tucker was blocked from participation in the combine due to a heart issue, but he continued training and posted explosive athleticism in personal workouts. Unconfirmed 40 times in the mid-4.3s point in the same direction as apocryphal high school times in the 4.29 range. His personal pro day demonstrated some crazy reps on the bench to go with an almost 40-inch vertical.
* The other four backs in that No. 15 to No. 11 feature? Chuba Hubbard, Ty Chandler, Kendre Miller, and Tyjae Spears. Maybe Miller will even play this week. On a long enough timeline . . .
Timing is everything – and the timing was wrong a year ago – but as Tucker isn’t rostered in almost anything, you’ve got an opportunity to pull the trigger this week. Should you?
Watching the stout Tucker explode out of the blocks and rip off multiple long runs while demonstrating comfort and fluidity out of the backfield, my first thought was that he’s clearly better than both Rachaad White and Bucky Irving.
Although if you just take his performance against the Saints as your point of reference, he’s going to look better than virtually everyone. This was his Barkley-in-Week-1 rampage. Despite frequently running through gaping holes, Tucker also broke four tackles (and added two more as a receiver). Only Najee Harris (8), J.K. Dobbins (5) and teammate Bucky Irving (6) had more.
And that’s another piece to this puzzle. If not for Tucker’s heroics, we’d be talking about the Irving Breakout. The rookie added two forced missed tackles, giving him a 57% evasion rate, second-best on the week behind Harris. For the season, he’s up to 3.3 yards after contact per attempt on a 24% evasion rate. That’s not bad for a 192-pound back with minus straight-line speed. It’s better than a wide variety of backs who are viewed as the best in football this year.
- Jordan Mason (3.2, 19%)
- Brian Robinson (3.2, 18%)
- David Montgomery (3.1, 13%)
- Derrick Henry (2.9, 13%)
- Bijan Robinson (2.9, 23%)
- Breece Hall (2.6, 14%)
- Saquon Barkley (2.5, 9.9%)
Irving broke a 31-yard run that rivaled some of Tucker’s highlights, and he rewarded fantasy managers with a three-play stretch late that put the game away:
We got the full package here with an 18-yard reception on third-and-long, a slashing 7-yard gain to set up the goal-line carry, and a successful conversion to keep him in the mix for these crucial touches.
It’s definitely worthy of making it a three-headed monster. He took advantage of his opportunities. He ran away from some tackles, some linebackers, he ran through the hole, he cut back, he made plays, he caught the ball well out of the backfield, so that gives us a three-headed monster.
Three-headed? As a pure rusher, White has been better this season, but he still ranks outside the top 40 in points-above-average per attempt. That shows up in the EP numbers as well.
Tucker was a hybrid back in college and flashed that against New Orleans, leading the position in both broken tackles (2) and receiving yards after contact (20). At this point, there’s no need to force White even into the receiving back role.
If the Buccaneers are going to fulfill their destiny as NFC South champions and a difficult out in the playoffs, it’s time to make this a 1-2 punch of borderline elite backs, even if those backs don’t provide name value.
