Heading into the season, Jalen Tolbert was getting plenty of steam as a breakout candidate in the Cowboys’ offense.

#Cowboys HC Mike McCarthy on the biggest improvement he’s seen in Jalen Tolbert:

“Everything. I think he’s just really completed his game… I think JT’s taken a big, big step.” pic.twitter.com/3RSOu8Lg9f

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) August 2, 2024

#Cowboys OC Brian Schottenheimer on Jalen Tolbert:

“I see a player that’s matured, and a player that’s just ready for his opportunity.” pic.twitter.com/P04chHQ3Dr

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) August 2, 2024

It was easy to be a little bit skeptical, as Tolbert has gotten a decent amount of hype during training camp in each of his prior two seasons, only to disappear once the games actually mattered.

After a Week 1 game where Tolbert only scored 2.2 PPR points to Brandin Cooks’ 14.5 PPR points, it looked like drafters may have been duped again by Tolbert. But since then, Cooks has not outscored Tolbert in a single game despite being on the field for more of the team’s snaps.

Following the Cowboys’ game in Week 4, it was announced that Cooks had sprained his MCL and would be heading to IR through at least Week 9.

NFL: Brandin Cooks placed on IR. Cowboys WR (knee) to miss at least next four games pic.twitter.com/KsRwlyLGw8

— Alain Keith Cabardo Daguio (@keithdaguio) October 5, 2024

In the Cowboys’ first game without Cooks, Tolbert led all Dallas wide receivers in snaps, and essentially every meaningful receiving statistic for both reality and fantasy. Tolbert capped off the night by catching the game-winning touchdown after taking a hit to the most sensitive of regions on the previous play.

After scoring double-digit PPR points in three games this season, are we finally going to see Tolbert unleashed with Cooks out of the lineup?

Coming out of small-school South Alabama as an older prospect in 2022, Tolbert had some impressive production coupled with middle-of-the-road athleticism that was highlighted by one perennially underrated attribute.

It was speculated that Tolbert would need time to develop once he was drafted, and that has proven to be the case. But now, it looks like he is ready to produce, and his opportunity to emerge could not have come at a better time.

The Cowboys have the best strength of schedule for WRs over the rest of 2024, with almost nothing but advantageous matchups for the duration of the season.

Heading into Week 6, the entire Cowboys receiving corps has plus-matchups in a game against the Lions where points could end up being scored in bunches.

Any worry about Tolbert’s value once Cooks returns could easily be squashed by Week 9. Cooks has done very little with his opportunities since Week 1, so even after he returns from IR, the chances that he will regain his spot as Dallas’ WR2 seems unlikely. Especially if Tolbert can build on his performance from Week 5.

Tolbert should be a priority add in any league where he is still available. He should also be a target in trades — especially as an add-on in larger deals — that could pay off huge over the remainder of the season.

Tolbert looks to have made his way into the perfect storm for production in Dallas. He plays next to a superstar WR in CeeDee Lamb who will always be the primary focus of defenses any time he is on the field. The team has the easiest schedule for WRs rest of season. Finally, the cherry on top is that the Cowboys average the second-most pass plays per 60 minutes across the entire NFL so far this season.

Generally, it is smarter to bet on talent than circumstance. Tolbert looks to have a sufficient amount of talent to take advantage of the incredible amalgamation of circumstances that are being laid at his feet.