Welcome to The Wrong Read. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to try to understand how an upcoming matchup might play out in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be when trying to pass? How much will they be able to run the ball?
It’s impossible to answer these questions definitively, but by exploring the advanced metrics we can better understand the dynamics that might not show up in the box score every week. We can use these metrics to find hidden signal that could indicate how a team wants to play football and how likely they are to be able to play the way they want against an upcoming opponent.
The numbers below include data from Weeks 1-4 along with the final weeks of 2023. This means that personnel changes won’t be entirely reflected in these numbers — in cases where that matters I’ll point it out. But we can still get a good sense of what to expect from each of these teams. I’ll highlight the most salient features of the matchup below each graphic.
One note on the images below: a couple weeks ago we made an adjustment to how the rankings and color coding is presented. All rankings and colors now assume the offense’s point of a view. So a No. 1 ranking in a defensive metric indicates they are the easiest matchup for opposing offenses to face. Likewise, a No. 32 ranking indicates a team is the most difficult matchup. This makes it much easier to glance at the images and see which matchups are most favorable for the offense.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders
This game has an almost impossibly low total of just 36.5, and when you see the advanced stats you can understand why.
Neither team is particularly good at anything on offense, and both are at least competent defenses. The Raiders will try to exploit the Steelers’ conservative (yet effective) pass rush.
The Steelers will try to pick up yards after the catch. Las Vegas will give Pittsburgh’s receivers room to make catches.
The Raiders’ defense looks more vulnerable in this matchup — they are the 10th-easiest matchup in terms of pressure rate, and the 12th-easiest in EPA per pass allowed. Whether the Steelers have the weapons to capitalize on these relative weaknesses is another matter. George Pickens remains the top receiver in Pittsburgh, but was mysteriously limited in Week 5. He played only 59% of the snaps last week and ran only 65% of the routes, but still led the team with seven targets. Unfortunately he was able to manage only 26 yards, which speaks to the offensive limitations we noted above.
The Steelers might try to run the ball instead — no team has run more rushing plays in 2024.
However, few teams have been less effective when running the ball. Pittsburgh is No. 26 in yards per rushing play and No. 27 in yards before contact. This matchup is beatable — Las Vegas is a bottom-nine team in rushing yards over expected allowed and yards before contact allowed — but not necessarily by the Steelers.
The Raiders unfortunately have only one way to attack in this game.
They are dead last in EPA per rush, and Pittsburgh is the toughest defensive matchup in both EPA and RYOE. They give up more yards before contact than most teams, but make up for it by limiting yards after contact. And in any case, Las Vegas isn’t set up well to exploit this pre-contact weakness.
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
The only game that can compete with the Pittsburgh-Las Vegas showdown in terms of the lack of fireworks is the Chargers-Broncos divisional tilt. The matchup’s over/under of 37.5 reflects a number of offensive deficiencies on both sides, but we see them most clearly in the Chargers’ passing offense.
Not only is L.A. among the worst teams in every advanced passing metric, but they are facing one of the best passing defenses in the league. Their rushing matchup looks slightly better by comparison, but still not good.
Among players with at least 50 carries, only three are averaging more yards before contact than J.K. Dobbins. This is the one area in which Denver looks vulnerable on the ground, though it didn’t work out well for Breece Hall or Braelon Allen when we highlighted the same potential.
The Broncos’ backs won’t have a much easier time.
The Chargers face the run with a light box more than any other team, yet they still limit rushing success better than all but three teams. If Denver’s rushing attack were more effective, this matchup would be more interesting. As it is, the Broncos will likely need to rely on their rookie quarterback and their offensive line.
Denver’s receivers have been creating separation and excess YAC, and both of those are areas where the Chargers’ defense struggles. If the Broncos’ offensive line can continue to keep pressure away from Bo Nix, he might be able to engineer some big plays.
