After the Colts selected Alec Pierce with the 53rd overall pick in the 2022 draft, he has seen plenty of opportunities on the field, but has not done much with them. In his first season, Pierce’s 446 routes ranked 37th among wide receivers. In his second year, Pierce’s routes run jumped to 556, which ranked 11th among all WRs. But all of that time on the field did not lead to results, as Pierce never ranked higher than the PPR WR64 or WR200 in FPOE in either season.

Despite the increase in time on the field in his second season, Pierce ended up seeing less opportunities in 2023 compared to 2022.

Heading into the 2024 season, Pierce was looking like a bust. There were signals that Indianapolis felt the same way when the team drafted Adonai Mitchell with the 52nd overall pick in the 2024 draft. Mitchell and Pierce have similar skill sets, and the writing was on the wall that a change could be on the way.

Then Week 1 came, and Pierce had the best performance of any Colts WR on his way to scoring as the PPR WR10 for the week. He was also on the receiving end of an Anthony Richardson bomb that was the highlight of the week.

BANGGGGGG

WHAT WILL THEY SAY NOW????? AR TO ALEC PIERCE BOMB pic.twitter.com/ouG0ibOFru

— Colts Coverage (@Colts_Coverage) September 8, 2024

After the big game, it was fair to question the sustainability of Pierce’s performance. In Week 1, Pierce was the only Colts receiver to earn more than one target and have a catchable target percentage (CT%) higher than 50%. Most notably, Richardson missed a wide-open Mitchell on multiple passes that easily could have resulted in touchdowns.

Adonai Mitchell could have easily gone for 150+ and 2 TDs yesterday

(yes, I know he probably ran the wrong route in the first clip) pic.twitter.com/wBFl3pxkr4

— Mike Renner (@mikerenner_) September 9, 2024

As the weeks went on, Pierce’s production steadily declined; eventually hitting rock bottom in Week 4 against the Steelers.

Similar to this offseason, just when we were almost completely out, Pierce came back with a monster performance in Week 5 that eerily mirrored his game in Week 1 (complete with multiple highlight-reel catches).

Concentration 🤝 Coordination

📺 #INDvsTEN | 10/13 on CBS pic.twitter.com/lAuOTXxvlr

— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) October 7, 2024

Old man Joe finds Alex Pierce from 65 yards out to tie the game with under 3 minutes to go pic.twitter.com/DmUPRgEfdl

— Streameast News Network (@StreameastNews) October 6, 2024

After Pierce’s second spike week of the season, he now finds himself leading all Colts WRs in PPR points in 2024. In addition, it was reported that Michael Pittman Jr. is now dealing with a back injury that could potentially land him on IR. Josh Downs has also been dealing with a toe injury that has held him out of practice all week.

With all of the uncertainty in the Colts’ passing game, is Pierce a must-start as the potential WR1 in Indianapolis?

Pierce’s game splits for the year are very telling regarding how he has been used this season. He has actually averaged more targets per game in his down games in Weeks 2-4 than he has in his two spike weeks this season. The biggest difference is that he converted all of his targets in Week 1 and Week 5 for big gains.

The above graphic may still not be the best representation of what to expect from Pierce, as his Week 2-4 target numbers are buoyed by the eight targets and five receptions he had in Week 2. In Week 3 and Week 4, Pierce only had two targets and one reception in each game. The biggest difference between Week 2 and Weeks 3-4 was the presence of Downs.

Last week, we asked if Downs should be considered the WR1 in the Colts offense over Pittman moving forward. In Week 5 against the Jaguars, Downs put up a 9-69-0 receiving line on 12 targets, further solidifying his status as the Colts’ most consistent receiver since his return in Week 3.

Since Downs came back from his high-ankle sprain, he leads the team in PPR points, targets, and receptions. Pierce’s 78.0% snap percentage is second to only Pittman during that span, but Pierce has found himself relegated to being a deep threat; evidenced by his 31.6 aDOT. Mitchell has even seen more opportunities than Pierce over the past three games, although Mitchell’s 55% CT% is tied for the third-worst mark among all WRs with more than six targets in that time frame. If we want to take it a step further, Mitchell’s 45% CT% in 2024 is the worst rate for any WR with more than nine targets.

Downs has shown a willingness to play through injury in his short career; not missing a single game in his rookie season despite re-aggravating an offseason knee sprain multiple times in 2023. If Downs is able to go on Sunday, we should expect for him to lead the Colts in targets and receptions. If Downs is forced to sit, the door is open for Pierce to lead the team.

In the event that Pierce slots into the WR1 role for the Colts, his Week 2 game against the Packers should be the template we look to when trying to figure out what to expect from him. Pierce’s 13.2 aDOT against Green Bay was the only time this year when he had an aDOT below 30 yards. He was also able to put up a respectable 5-55-1 stat line on eight targets in that game to finish the week with 16.6 PPR points.

Through five games in 2024, Pierce looks to have put his inefficient ways behind him, as he currently ranks as the WR2 in FPOE per game. He has also been able to propel himself into the PPR WR22 spot for the season on the back of his two big performances. As long as Downs and/or Pittman misses time, we should see Pierce in a more dynamic role than just being used as a deep threat. We must also be aware that Mitchell will also be receiving more opportunities in the short term, and the rookie’s outlook could change dramatically if he can get more competent QB play in addition to an expanded role.

With all of the injuries at the WR position across the NFL, Pierce has plenty of upside for fantasy managers as the short-term WR1 in Indianapolis. He will also continue to be a spike-week threat for the rest of the season, even when the team is at full health. Mitchell also represents a player worth adding to rosters, as his potential could be realized at any point while Pittman is not on the field. The next few weeks could provide an open audition for the Colts’ young WRs to show that they deserve to move up in the team’s target pecking order. Hopefully the team (and their QB) put them in a position to capitalize on the opportunity.