Welcome to The Wrong Read. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to try to understand how an upcoming matchup might play out in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be when trying to pass? How much will they be able to run the ball?
It’s impossible to answer these questions definitively, but by exploring the advanced metrics we can better understand the dynamics that might not show up in the box score every week. We can use these metrics to find hidden signal that could indicate how a team wants to play football and how likely they are to be able to play the way they want against an upcoming opponent.
The numbers below include data from Weeks 1-4 along with the final weeks of 2023. This means that personnel changes won’t be entirely reflected in these numbers — in cases where that matters I’ll point it out. But we can still get a good sense of what to expect from each of these teams. I’ll highlight the most salient features of the matchup below each graphic.
One note on the images below: a couple weeks ago we made an adjustment to how the rankings and color coding is presented. All rankings and colors now assume the offense’s point of a view. So a No. 1 ranking in a defensive metric indicates they are the easiest matchup for opposing offenses to face. Likewise, a No. 32 ranking indicates a team is the most difficult matchup. This makes it much easier to glance at the images and see which matchups are most favorable for the offense.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
While Seattle has been vulnerable in the passing game, they do one thing well, which is create pressure. San Francisco has struggled to prevent pressure this year.
Although they are No. 1 in average time to pressure, Brock Purdy is holding the ball longer than any other quarterback. The main reason for this appears to be that his receivers are struggling to separate from defenders. They won’t have an easy go of it against the Seahawks, who are a top-eight defense when it comes to average separation allowed.
All that said, the 49ers are a top-four team in both passing yards per play and EPA per pass, and those are both areas where Seattle is among the weaker teams. Nevertheless, for the 49ers, this game likely comes down to just how effective Jordan Mason can be on the ground.
Only one team is allowing more rushing yards over expected than the Seahawks.
On the other hand, only one team is generating a higher explosive run rate than the Seahawks rushing attack.
While Seattle hasn’t done much after contact, and hasn’t run the ball often, they are generally effective — especially before contact. They are No. 2 in rushing yards per play. San Francisco is good at limiting after-contact yardage, but again, that’s not where the Seahawks do most damage. With both teams capable of decent rushing success, the play volume simply may not be there for this game to hit its lofty over/under of 49.
This is especially the case when you notice that Seattle might have difficulty passing the ball.
Their offensive line has the opposite problem from San Francisco’s: while Geno Smith gets the ball out quick, that’s mostly out of necessity. No team allows opposing pass rushers to pressure the quarterback faster than the Seahawks. If Seattle’s pass rush can also cause problems for the 49ers, the overall scoring environment in this game could disappoint.
Of course, the Strength of Schedule Streaming app still likes the matchup for Seattle’s wide receivers . . .
. . . and San Francisco’s quarterback.
