I’m not superstitious, but I am a little stitious.
— Michael Scott
We have all heard of the “Madden Curse,” but the “WR Advanced Stats Curse” may be just as real for those who subscribe to such theories. The only player featured as the cover boy for the article this year who has not been injured the following week has been Jameson Williams. (If Brandon Aiyuk gets hurt in Week 6, I will make myself the featured image of the article next week — much to the dismay of all of us — as penance.)
There are two schools of thought we can take moving forward:
- Hope our WRs don’t play well. Hence, they won’t be featured in the article, increasing the chance they will stay healthy (but unproductive) all season.
- Accept that injuries are part of the game, and players have become increasing more susceptible to them in recent years.
One reason for the perceived increase in injuries could be decreased preseason preparation, which opens players up to more risk — especially in the case of soft-tissue injuries. Another could be a higher focus on player safety that puts less pressure on players to perform through injuries. The second option is absolutely a positive improvement — especially in the case of concussions — and it is awesome that the NFL is taking measures to protect their players.
In the end, the answer most likely boils down to a combination of factors. As players miss time with increased regularity, it becomes even more important to dig deeper into the data to find replacements that have the potential to emerge if given more opportunity. On top of our normal content, this week we will also be taking a look at some players who have been productive on limited opportunity who could emerge if the chance for a larger role becomes available.
Before we get into the latest information available in the Advanced Stats Explorer, just a few quick reminders about the article.
- Leading up to the season, I looked at the five years of data available in the Advanced Stats Explorer and broke it down into four separate articles: Routes and Targets, Intended Air Yards, Yards After the Catch and Evasion, and Catchable Targets, Drops, First Downs, and Touchdowns.
- When working through the five-year sample, we found that the 90th percentile and above generally included most of the top-24 wide receivers for each metric in any given season. The 75th percentile and above included the top 55 to 60 WRs in any given metric per season. Given that these two cohorts easily apply to a normal 12-team fantasy league, they will be referenced often throughout the article.
In Week 4, the total number of players who earned at least one target during the 2024 season grew to 173 after our Week 4 sample included 164 players.
