Shawn Siegele breaks down the Zero RB Universe with trade ideas, deep stashes, start/sit thoughts, and much more as we head toward Week 6 of the 2024 fantasy football season.
The Zero RB Universe covers the entire RB landscape, not just a single type of build. This isn’t a waiver wire piece. Kevin Szafraniec has you covered for that. We’re trying to understand the RB position in a deeper way so we can create the same types of rosters that we’re looking to build preseason.
The Zero RB Universe is about understanding the position well enough to make those start/sit decisions easier, to help you win dynasty trades, to stay two steps out in front of your league with look-ahead FA stashes. To accomplish these goals, we’ll rely on the Weekly Stat Explorer, the RotoViz Screener, the Advanced Stat Explorer, Advanced Team Stat Explorer, the Strength of Schedule Streamer, the Matchup Analysis tab from the NFL Player Explorer, and more. We’ll benefit from the deep insights of the Sports Info Solutions stats and charting info that power many of our tools.
For the Good and the Bad, Chaos Is Here
After Weeks 1 and 2 every year, we get a flurry of articles talking about how this year is different. And to be clear, that’s not impossible. Over the last couple of seasons especially, I’ve regularly noted that a 2016-type aberration at the RB position was going to happen at some point and the conditions were primed for it to really favor contrarian drafters if it did.
We also had more Dead Zone backs that we really liked this year, such as Kenneth Walker, James Cook, Aaron Jones, and James Conner. All four of them have impressed, and they’re not alone. And yet, as we move deeper into the season, the RB position is quickly starting to look more or less like it always does.
The Zero RB-ish favorites are making a push.
- Chase Brown found the end zone again, scored on a two-point conversion, and looked far better than Zack Moss on the ground, even with his final three OT plunges included. On the season, Brown ranks No. 4 in positive percentage (min. 30 attempts) and is the only back in the top seven who isn’t in the negative in points-above-average per attempt.
- Javonte Williams finally looked like himself, dragging defenders for 111 yards from scrimmage and catching five passes.
- Tyrone Tracy might have been the most impressive runner in the NFL on Sunday, with 129 yards on a mere 18 carries. You’ve got to love what he did against the Seahawks, even if this was the perfect matchup to get your first extended run at the professional level.
- Tank Bigsby just missed the Zero RB Countdown, but if you’re a frequent podcast listener, you were all over him as a discount version of the Zach Charbonnet thesis. He might have been the one back more impressive than Tracy on Sunday.
- Another Charbonnet-lite option, Roschon Johnson, powered in for two more TDs and looks like a meaningful threat to D’Andre Swift as the season evolves.
- Jaylen Wright and Raheem Mostert each posted 80-plus yards, and although Wright was the more explosive, Mostert led the scoring with two additional catches. (He also had a 13-7 edge in routes.)
- For the Rico Dowdle fans, the Cowboys finally deigned to put the ball in his hands against Pittsburgh, and he looked fantastic as a runner and receiver.
Free agent filler options are putting up meaningful points.
- With Brian Robinson limited to seven carries (that did still result in two scores), Jeremy McNichols rushed seven times for 44 yards and a score.
- Trey Sermon benefited from Jonathan Taylor’s absence against one of the NFL’s weakest defenses. The 3.8 yards per carry and a score were not surprising, but the six receptions were.
- Dare Ogunbowale earned 22 opportunities and, despite underperforming as a runner, still posted 14.7 points. Cam Akers added almost 13 more.
Attrition and underperformance is starting to drag down the starters.
- De’Von Achane continues his stretch of terrible injury luck. The scary concussion wiped out what promised to be a big game against the Patriots, but at least he’ll have the bye week to progress through the protocol.
- The same is true of Aaron Jones, who looked dynamic again early in Week 5, only for the Vikings to collapse after his hip injury.
- The negatives for Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall began to look more like trends in Week 5, as their squads went ultra-pass-heavy at the same time that their backups were frustratingly involved.
- Travis Etienne aggravated his shoulder injury. Although it’s not believed to be serious, he’s almost certainly fallen into a committee on a bad offense.
- After benefiting from a soft schedule in the first month, Alvin Kamara was held to only 2.6 rushing points against Kansas City. He is now one of only two backs in the NFL with at least 50 carries who is being held below 2.0 yards after contact and below a 10% evasion rate.
What’s the best way to process the RB landscape and stay one step ahead of your leaguemates? Let’s dive into the Zero RB Universe.
