Sherlock Holmes observed that once you have eliminated the impossible then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the answer. I, however, do not like to eliminate the impossible.
― Dirk Gently’s Holistic Detective Agency
Now this is fantasy football. In today’s exercise I’ll be breaking down the key box score developments and the key plays beyond the box score from Week 5 episodes of Stealing Bananas and RotoViz Overtime.
If all of the points this week got you fired up for more drafts, Colm Kelly and I will be holding a Guillotine draft Wednesday at 5:30 with the eventual winner(s) getting a six-month sub to RotoViz. To get involved, sign up at guillotineleagues.com and contact Colm (@OvertimeIreland).
Make sure you check out Kevin’s Monday Review article for more, and don’t miss Blair’s weekly Wrong Read breakdowns. Many of the images I’ll use today originate in his fantastic research.
Stealing Bananas
Ravens at Bengals
- Joe Burrow led all QBs with 22.7 EPA and was one of three QBs with more than 10 yards per attempt. (Perhaps surprisingly, the other two were Trevor Lawrence and Caleb Williams.) He threw for 322 air yards, which only ranked No. 8 on a good day for passing, but generated a pretty crazy 1.2 passing air conversion ratio for a QB with an average target depth of 8.3. Unfortunately for Burrow, his back-breaking pick – driving with a 38-35 lead and 3:05 to go – allowed the Ravens to rally and win after the blocked field goal in overtime. The pick underlined the Bengals problems. It was a rare moment of miscommunication with Ja’Marr Chase, but was enough to cost the game given the total collapse of Cincinnati’s defense.
- Tee Higgins finally mounted a charge in this one, but it could have been much bigger. Of the five incomplete targets, one was a vertical shot where he went in motion and then immediately blew by the defenders off the line. Burrow dramatically underthrew what should have been a long TD, but Higgins came back through the DB to almost make the play before ultimately dropping what would have been a 47-yard gain. But the 83-yard, two-score game will help managers exhale after Higgins had only four WR1 finishes – and zero WR2 finishes – in his previous 15 active games.
- A muffed opportunity by the holder on the potential game-winning FG in overtime cost Cincinnati a chance to stay (more) alive at 2-3, but I tend to believe the mistake is a punishment for cowardice. After recovering Lamar Jackson’s egregious OT fumble, the Bengals pounded Chase Brown into the line on three consecutive plays. Cincinnati didn’t even pretend the plays could be anything other than halfback plungers, further downgrading the chance of gaining yardage against Baltimore’s elite run defense.
Before the botched attempt, Evan McPherson was 10 for 15 across the last two years in 50-plus FGs, with only a single miss on anything below 50. McPherson is an excellent kicker, but his results do follow the expected plummet in made FG percentage between 45 and 55 yards. Given how dominant the Bengals had been on offense all day, they hurt their chances by playing it “safe” at the end. - Jackson now has two games with fewer than 20 passing attempts and two games with more than 40. In all three games where the Ravens have thrown 30 or more times, Zay Flowers has drawn 10 or more targets. Flowers can be a bit of a weekly headache with the Baltimore pass volume drying up completely on occasion, but his peripherals are also really encouraging. He generated 141 air yards and complemented that with 42 yards after the catch. The only two players with more air yards and more YAC? Brandon Aiyuk and Garrett Wilson.
- Rashod Bateman was a puff-piece all-star during training camp, but the opportunities still haven’t been there. We may look at this as a breakout game. He scores only his third TD since Week 2 of the 2022 season and garners the most single-game targets (8) since his rookie season.
