Welcome to The Wrong Read. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to try to understand how an upcoming matchup might play out in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be when trying to pass? How much will they be able to run the ball?
It’s impossible to answer these questions definitively, but by exploring the advanced metrics we can better understand the dynamics that might not show up in the box score every week. We can use these metrics to find hidden signal that could indicate how a team wants to play football and how likely they are to be able to play the way they want against an upcoming opponent.
The numbers below include data from Weeks 1-3 along with the last three weeks of 2023. This means that personnel changes won’t be entirely reflected in these numbers — in cases where that matters I’ll point it out. But we can still get a good sense of what to expect from each of these teams. I’ll highlight the most salient features of the matchup below each graphic.
One note on the images below: I’m trying something new with the rankings and color coding. All rankings and colors now assume the offense’s point of a view. So a No. 1 ranking in a defensive metric indicates they are the easiest matchup for opposing offenses to face. Likewise, a No. 32 ranking indicates a team is the most difficult matchup. This makes it much easier to glance at the images and see which matchups are most favorable for the offense.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This playoff rematch is a study in contrasts, particularly in the ground game. The Eagles rank 2nd in both EPA per rush (0.04) and yards per play (5.02). (We’ll get to the Bucs’ rushing game below.)
Tampa Bay presents a beatable challenge, though one that does limit yards both before and after contact. Saquon Barkley will have to do some damage on a handful of explosive runs.
In the passing game, the Eagles present an interesting puzzle. They are second in the league in time to pressure allowed, but that only means that Jalen Hurts has the opportunity to hold the ball even longer. Only two teams have a longer average time to throw.
The Bucs’ are a stingy pass defense that blitzes often and gets to the opposing quarterback quickly. Philadelphia will hope their running game is up to the task in this one, especially without DeVonta Smith and possibly also without A.J. Brown. Dallas Goedert could be the focal point once again, but he may also be the focal point of the defense.
On the other side of the ball, Baker Mayfield’s resurgence in Tampa hasn’t quite carried over to 2024. The Bucs rank 14th in EPA per pass (-0.04) and 17th in yards per play.
Only four teams get to the QB quicker than the Eagles’ pass rush — bad news for a Tampa Bay offensive line that allows the third quickest time to pressure in the league. Tampa Bay would like to take some pressure off the passing game against an Eagles run defense that gives rushing yards away freely. The problem is the Bucs don’t seem to want to accept them.
Denver Broncos at New York Jets
Many of us had high hopes for Denver’s passing attack. We’re now hoping it’s just a case of a rookie taking a few games to get acclimated. The Broncos rank 26th in EPA per pass (-0.19) and 26th in yards per play (5.35).
They face one of the toughest challenges in Week 4. No team allows fewer yards per play or less EPA per pass than the Jets. No team plays tighter coverage. New York doesn’t blitz often, but they still generate a pressure rate of over 40%.
The Jets’ own offensive struggles are well-known, though the numbers below are only partially reflective of Aaron Rodgers’ play. In any case, New York sits at 25th in EPA per pass (-0.18) and 27th in yards per play, and Denver’s pass defense presents a difficult matchup.
The Jets’ typically strong rushing attack also faces a tough test. They rank eighth in rushing yards over expected (13.2) and only one team gains more yards after contact, but the Broncos are just as strong against the run as they are against the pass.
Only three teams allow a lower rate of explosive runs than the Broncos. This doesn’t appear to be the best matchup for Breece Hall and Braelon Allen. On the other hand, we’ve seen explosive runners exploit Denver’s defense before. Hall is certainly talented enough to break off some long runs.
The Jets’ rushing defense isn’t as strong, but the Broncos have struggled to move the ball on the ground so far in the young 2024 season.
Week 3 saw Tyler Badie get some garbage time run, and he appeared to be the most effective option. Yet he’s unlikely to have a big role in Week 4 in Denver’s crowded backfield.
