Sean Payton’s success in the run game has been well chronicled on RotoViz this offseason. All the way back in February, I featured the Broncos in an article highlighting them as a team with plenty of uncertainty heading into the offseason. With so many question marks, one thing that was never in doubt was that Payton would use his running backs . . . a lot.
Over the 16 years that Payton coached the Saints, there were only seven instances when the team’s second-highest scoring RB didn’t average double-digits in PPR points per game. We all will have our own opinions concerning the talent level of the Denver backs, but it is a bit puzzling to hear people debate whether we should be drafting Williams or McLaughlin in best-ball tournaments, when both could realistically return value.
As the season drew closer, Shawn Siegele highlighted the Broncos backfield as one that possessed tournament-winning upside. This idea was strongly backed by the history Payton has with his running backs.
- Payton offenses ranked No. 1 or No. 2 in RB scoring on 12 occasions. That’s in 17 seasons.
- Payton offenses created an immense amount of scoring volume. They ranked No. 1 or No. 2 in Expected Points — the amount of fantasy points you would expect given each individual carry or target at a specific location on the field — on 12 occasions as well. (They ranked No. 1 in EP in 2007 when they only finished fourth in scoring. They ranked only sixth in EP in 2020 when they finished first in scoring.)
- Payton offenses ranked in the top 10 for fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) on 11 occasions and 20th or worse only three times.
While Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin carried the highest ADPs of the Broncos RBs throughout draft season, Payton has been known to pull RB production from everywhere and anywhere. This made rookie fifth-rounder Audric Estime and even rookie-UDFA Blake Watson draftable in deep leagues.
In Week 1, the entire Broncos offense looked lost, and the RBs were no exception.
Estime was the only Broncos RB with positive EPA on the week. But he also had a fumble on one of his two carries and picked up an ankle injury that landed him on IR.
The Week 2 game against the Steelers saw more of the same from the Denver rushing offense.
One 16-yard run from third-stringer Tyler Badie was the best Denver could muster, as the Broncos offense continued their free fall with both Williams (-3.9) and McLaughlin (-0.9) again failing to post positive EPA.
Denver’s fortunes seemed to change in Week 3, as the team jumped out to an early lead which they never relinquished. McLaughlin even put up one of the week’s early highlights by juking a defender out of his shorts on a fourth-and-goal touchdown run.
Juke of the season by Jaleel McLaughlin 🤯 pic.twitter.com/2RUgANAqSq
— Zac Stevens (@ZacStevensDNVR) September 22, 2024
Unfortunately, one highlight does not a season make, as both Williams and McLaughlin again struggled on the ground against the Buccaneers. So much so, in fact, that Payton turned to Badie to keep the clock running with the Broncos up big.
And if you were watching the broadcast, yes, the announcers were pronouncing his name correctly.
Last year Broncos RB Tyler Badie told me his last name was pronounced “Bay-Dee” and now it’s “Bidet”. I’m confused lol https://t.co/SPNKGzETkX
— Bradey King (@BradeyKing) September 22, 2024
Through three games of 2024, this is where Williams and McLaughlin rank among RBs.
With Badie looking like the only RB who can get anything going on the ground in Denver, who exactly is this mystery man? And is there a chance he could be the next Payton RB to come out of nowhere and claim fantasy glory?
For RotoViz readers circa 2022, Badie’s name should sound pretty familiar. Badie had the fourth-highest backfield dominator rating in 2022’s rookie-RB class, and was touted by Siegele as potentially the next James White. Siegele also included this little tidbit from 2022’s RotoViz rookie guide in his profile of Badie.
In this year’s Rookie Guide, Blair focused on 100 scrimmage yards per game and a 10% receiving yardage share as a combination of metrics that translates to success at the NFL level. Badie led the position with 156 scrimmage yards per game and ranked third among backs with 12.5% msYDs.
Badie had some impressive testing at the combine, but his status as a sub-200 pound RB likely played a role in him falling to the sixth-round (196th pick overall) in the 2022 draft.
After a good rookie training camp in Baltimore, Badie did not make the Ravens’ active roster. But after being cut, he was signed to the team’s practice squad a day later. The Broncos then signed him off Baltimore’s practice squad in December of 2022. Since then, he has gone back and forth between Denver’s active roster and their practice squad.
After Badie’s performance in Week 3, it feels like he has a good chance to remain on the active roster for the foreseeable future.
Tyler Badie’s top speed of 20.99 MPH on this run makes him the 3rd fastest ball carrier of Week 3, and 10th fastest ball carrier of the entire season on any one play.
RB1.
— EpicNormie (@EpicNormie_) September 23, 2024
Badie has been with the Broncos for almost two years now, and he should be well-versed in Payton’s system at this point. After his performance against Tampa Bay, he will surely be active again in Week 4. In what may be the most intriguing aspect of this situation, the Broncos have yet to get Badie involved in the receiving game – one of his biggest strengths coming into the league. As the only RB in Denver who has been effective with his touches up to this point, Badie could finally be ready to deliver on the promise that led to him being featured multiple times on RotoViz a few short years ago. If Badie continues to deliver, Payton’s track record has proven that there will be plenty of opportunities for him to score a whole lot of fantasy points in Denver this season.
