Welcome to the Wrong Read. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to try to understand how an upcoming matchup might play out in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be when trying to pass? How much will they be able to run the ball?

It’s impossible to answer these questions definitively, but by exploring the advanced metrics we can better understand the dynamics that might not show up in the box score every week. We can use these metrics to find hidden signal that could indicate how a team wants to play football and how likely they are to be able to play the way they want against an upcoming opponent.

Since we only have one week of data for 2024, these numbers aren’t as reliable as they might be later in the season. Still, it’s useful to see how each team performed in Week 1 and think about whether we should expect that performance to carry forward.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Judging by how these teams performed in each phase of the game last week, we should expect a lot of passes on Thursday night. In that light, it shouldn’t be surprising that only one game has a higher over/under this week. On the other hand, it’s worth recalling that Buffalo attempted only 23 passes against Arizona, yet still put up 34 points. They might try to run the ball against Miami more than we expect. The Jaguars attempted only 21 passes against the Dolphins in Week 1.

While the Bills were not particularly explosive on the ground, they did manage positive EPA when rushing the ball. They will likely need to find another gear on the ground against Miami, who was No. 2 in rushing EPA allowed. The Dolphins are weak after contact but make up for by limiting pre-contact yardage. This is somewhat surprising considering they had six or fewer players in the box on over 61% of the attempts they faced.

Buffalo’s defense isn’t scary against the run, but Miami’s rushing offense was one of the worst in league in Week 1. They were near the bottom in rushing yards per play, rushing yards over expected, and yards before contact. That may in part be due to the fact that only three teams faced a light box on a lower percentage of their attempts. Yet Miami may continue to struggle if De’Von Achane can’t play or is limited. Raheem Mostert has already been ruled out, so expect to see a lot of Jeff Wilson on the ground, with rookie Jaylen Wright mixing in. Buffalo did a decent job keeping Arizona from compiled yards over expected, and Miami struggled in this area too.

Miami will probably be looking to rely on their passing game. No team generated more yards after the catch over expected in Week 1, though most of that yardage came on a single Tyreek Hill catch. But a long TD is always a threat as long as Hill is on the field. Yet despite these explosive plays, Buffalo’s passing offense was arguably better in Week 1. Only two teams averaged more EPA per pass, and only two teams averaged more separation on their targets.

Both offensive lines were particularly strong in Week 1. Buffalo ranked No. 1 in time to pressure allowed, and Miami ranked No. 2. The Dolphins were No. 1 in pressure rate allowed. The Bills were No. 5. The major difference comes on the defensive side, where Miami’s defensive line was much more effective at getting to the quarterback than Buffalo’s. Only six teams took longer to force a QB pressure. It’s partly for this reason that Buffalo faced the longest time to throw of any team.^[1]That also speaks in part to quality of the coverage, although time to throw is mainly a QB stat, and not something the defense has a huge influence over.

While we may see the Bills try to get things going on the ground, Miami’s quick strike ability could force Buffalo to air it out before long. It’s fair to expect more total passes in this game than in either of the teams’ Week 1 games. The environment sets up well for Dalton Kincaid to rebound after his two-target 2024 debut. Kincaid ran more routes than any Bills receiver outside of Keon Coleman, and Buffalo could look to get him some touches early after he was deemphasized in Week 1.

Achane and Mostert accounted for 10 targets in Week 1. If all of those targets need to be redistributed, expect Wright to pick up several of them. But also look for Jaylen Waddle to see an increase over the five targets he garnered last week. However, this is still most likely a Tyreek Hill game. Buffalo’s nearly non-existent pass rush will give Tua Tagovailoa time in the pocket to wait for plays to develop and for Hill to get behind the defense. Over 40% of Hill’s targets were thrown at least 20 yards downfield last week, and the Bills’ defensive line won’t do much to disrupt those types of plays.