There’s a cliché in fantasy football, and for good reason: The best predictor of future fantasy success is past fantasy success. Any expansive correlation study will reveal that last year’s fantasy stats are, in fact, the No. 1 predictor of next year’s. The rub, of course, is that every lost nephew brought into a league to make even teams will draw from last year’s fantasy scoring as their No. 1 data point, so good luck gaining an advantage there. Garrett Wilson has ranked 21st and 25th among fantasy WRs in PPR his first two seasons, which should give us pause when talking about the eighth WR off the board in FFPC redraft leagues. In dynasty, the belief is even stronger, and Wilson goes sixth among WRs in startup ADP in RotoViz Tri-Flex leagues. Clearly, there is plenty of nuance to go around as Wilson has trudged through a two-year minefield on his way to the precipice of 2024, a year we hope the conditions around him will stabilize.
But, first of all, do we trust that? His QB, Aaron Rodgers, is 40, coming off a torn ACL he suffered on the first series of the season last year, he wasn’t playing particularly well the year before that, and this was all before he missed mandatory minicamp weeks ago, prompting rumors he was no longer committed to the game.
Second of all, are we whistling past the graveyard? The expression may be a little harsh because obviously, Wilson is no net zero. But should these analytical thresholds we discover come with fewer exceptions? By giving out hall passes, are we undercutting the objectivity of such statistical doctrine? If we strip away the slapped-on paint of excuse-making for Wilson, there could be genuine cause for concern, and we should think hard about that before we dive in wearing a blindfold. Let’s give it a closer look.
WILSON WAS A NICE PROSPECT, NOT A GREAT ONE
One theory as to why it may be hard for people to pragmatize Wilson as more of a WR2 than a WR1 is relative to sunk cost – at least that is what one might initially assume. Wilson was the WR4 according to rookie-draft ADP in 2022, behind Drake London, Treylon Burks, and Chris Olave. If we accept London, Olave, and Wilson as hits, casting off Burks as a bust, we are still well ahead of the bust rates for first-round WRs. If we add Jameson Williams and Jahan Dotson, whose failure seems less decided, to the list of busts, we are closer to historical trends. We still demonstrate plenty of faith in London and Olave in the dynasty community, as both remain Top-12 dynasty startup WRs. But I think, in retrospect, many will find it surprising that this was the order of these rookie ADPs. For some reason, it seems now like it was always Wilson. But let’s check the tape.
Shawn wrote about Wilson with guarded optimism in April of 2022:
“Wilson’s profile offers more safety but arguably less upside than the other top prospects. You’d like for him to be bigger, younger, more explosive, more productive. Well, you’d like him to be all of those things, but at the very least, you’d prefer one standout quality. He was more a cog than a star, and he was more solid than spectacular on the biggest of stages. But Wilson’s appeal is found in the high floor he offers as someone who seamlessly transitioned from decorated recruit to Ohio State weapon.”
If we’re objectively reading this evaluation today, we should see prophecy. Wilson has not offered a great ceiling. He has been a sturdy producer, worthy of starts but perhaps unworthy of the endless expectation that he will one day join the upper crust alongside CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, and Ja’Marr Chase. And yet, even Shawn himself has backpedaled somewhat, ranking Wilson today as the WR7 overall, best of the 2022 class. So, why the incessant feeling that Wilson belongs despite apparent confirmation that he is good, not great?
