If you’re asking yourself whether this is a good year for Zero RB, you might be asking the wrong question. Instead, given that it’s always a good year for Zero RB, the right question is: How extreme do I need to get? How many detours can I take when facing a WR avalanche?
How Many WR Detours Can We Take Before Getting Buried By the Avalanche?
There are many Zero RB — and Zero RB-adjacent — roster constructions I’m comfortable with heading into any draft, but my one firm rule is to draft my WR4 by Round 7. This ensures sufficient early WR firepower while allowing flexibility for strategic detours too good to pass up.
WR4 By Round 7 (Underdog, 2021-2023)
If you wait beyond Round 7 to get your WR4, you’re at serious risk of getting buried by the avalanche.
Advance Rate Over Expected Based On Where A Team’s WR4 Was Drafted (Underdog 2021-2023)
I have drafted hundreds of best ball teams this summer, and so far I have hit my WR4 by Round 7 goal on 87% of rosters. Truthfully, I want that number to be closer to 100%.
Dubner’s Best Ball Exposures
The market prices the WR48 at the end of the seventh round, which implies that every team will draft their WR4 by Round 7 if they follow ADP. But unlike in years past where getting your WR4 By Round 7 helped create super teams, drafting your WR4 By Round 7 is now the bare minimum to simply avoid getting buried by the WR Avalanche. And even then, it might not be enough. Blair Andrews and Ben Gretch drafted WRs with 4 of their first 5 picks and still ultimately felt thin at wide receiver. When possible, I prefer going even more WR-heavy in avalanche draft rooms — teams that drafted their fifth WR by Round 7 perform even better.
Advance Rate Over Expected Based On Where A Team’s WR5 Was Drafted (Underdog 2021-2023)
So the formula is: Draft WRs aggressively early until they fall off a cliff, then pivot to filling out your other positions. Fail to get your WR4 by Round 7, and you’re likely to be buried by the WR avalanche.
WR Detours Are Like Removing Jenga Blocks
Each WR detour early in drafts is like removing a Jenga block from your tower. It’s okay to strategically remove a Jenga block, but avoid pulling the load-bearing blocks that can collapse your roster.
Unlike in Jenga, in best ball we have a choice — we don’t actually have to remove the Jenga block and take WR detours. Instead, we can hammer WRs early, and bait our opponents into taking the plunge on WR detours, daring them to remove the landmines that will cause their roster to collapse under the weight of the WR avalanche.
In this sense, WRs should be your default pick early in drafts. But there are some WR detours so tempting to pull the trigger on that we’re willing to remove them, even at the risk of collapsing our roster.
The WR Cliff in 2024
The market draws a pretty hard line on this year’s WRs, with the cliff occurring right after Diontae Johnson, Christian, Watson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Keon Coleman, and Jameson Williams, as just three WRs are drafted over the next 19 picks. The RotoViz rankings suggest a few of these WRs belong after the WR cliff — the “Bateman Line” may be a fallacy again. Sure, there are some interesting names later, like Courtland Sutton and Tyler Lockett, but those WRs are better suited as WR5s rather than bailout WR4s.
