Pittsburgh Starts 2 Rookies and Other Offensive Line Shakeups Following the NFL Draft
Image Credit: Frank Jansky. Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Jaylen Warren.

Hitting offensive line draft picks is the best thing you can do for the trenches on that side of the ball. It’s still useful for fantasy to evaluate how much personnel turnover each team will work through up front, and how rookies fit in.

I’ve detailed the correlation between offensive line continuity and production metrics over the past 10 years, six of those at RotoViz. This latest installment will examine the impact from the 2024 NFL draft.

Massive infusion of OL talent

This offensive line class carried a ton of hype heading into draft weekend, as betting markets featured an over/under for first-round OL selections at 9.5 with the over at nearly minus-200. The Under 9.5 hit at plus money but it was very close, and the 25 linemen drafted through two rounds smashed any mark from the past 20 years as noted by Brandon Thorn — who you can hear chat with me about Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, and what made Cowboys lines so great on my RotoViz podcast Remember That Game.

As I project rookie starters entering the regular season, the past Week 1 totals serve as a baseline. More rookie starters get out there than even a few years ago, particularly for linemen acquired after the first round. The immediate starting prospects for those later selections and undrafted free agents are tougher to predict in early May, so let’s start with a conservative estimate based on the situation in each OL room.

Rookie offensive line starters entering Week 1 each year

The two sit-and-learn draftees from Round 1 are Jets OT Olu Fashanu and the Bengals OT Amarius Mims. Gang Green already paid up for tackles Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, and ditto Cincy with Orlando Brown Jr. and Trent Brown.

Rookies on new-look lines

Let’s start with projected rookie Week 1 starters on offensive lines replacing multiple starters. Again, two things can be true: 1) More continuity is better than less, and 2) Quality play under a rookie contract is better than poor performers continuing to start.

However, each of the top 12 offenses since 2018 return three or more members of their starting offensive line on average, while that figure drops from 100% to 50% for the bottom 12 offenses. Narrowing to the very ends of the spectrum, the top 5 offenses average 3.4 incumbents and for the bottom five it’s just 2.9 of five returning starters, or a majority of the offensive line turning over.

So let’s separate continuity and put it into focus with rookie infusions, starting with Pittsburgh’s designs on entering the season playing two rookie starters in Troy Fautanu and Zach Frazier.

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Jim Harbaugh Is Committed to Winning in the Trenches, But Will Justin Herbert Benefit? Offensive Line Continuity in Flux Entering the 2024 NFL Draft

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Evaluating Offensive Line Continuity Against Market Perception Entering the 2023 Season

We’ve had to white-knuckle through the end of training camp with injuries to skill position players, so it can be easy to take our eyes off the trenches. Though as I lay out in my annual summer series for RotoViz, there is a correlation worth exploring between starting offensive line continuity entering the season and the offensive production that ensues. My most recent piece put…...

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Offensive Line Continuity Outlook and Fantasy Impact for All 32 NFL Teams Entering 2024

Thomas Emerick files a final update on offensive line continuity before the season starts. Which teams will be best able to protect their quarterbacks and make room for their running backs, and which teams might struggle in the early-going? Just three teams have emerged in September with their entire starting offensive line from last year intact. If you’re Bijan Robinson and Kirk Cousins, Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson,…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

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Jim Harbaugh Is Committed to Winning in the Trenches, But Will Justin Herbert Benefit? Offensive Line Continuity in Flux Entering the 2024 NFL Draft

Jim Harbaugh is trying to outflank me on the importance of offensive line play — he must’ve known my pre-draft OL continuity update for all 32 teams was about to drop. We actually now kick off Year 10 of this series on the importance of incumbency in the trenches and its relation to offensive production. Granted, Harbaugh was running it back each year with a…...

Membership Required

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View Membership Levels

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Evaluating Offensive Line Continuity Against Market Perception Entering the 2023 Season

We’ve had to white-knuckle through the end of training camp with injuries to skill position players, so it can be easy to take our eyes off the trenches. Though as I lay out in my annual summer series for RotoViz, there is a correlation worth exploring between starting offensive line continuity entering the season and the offensive production that ensues. My most recent piece put…...

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