The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.
Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools — mainly the Advanced Team Stat Explorer — to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.
This week I’m making one small change to the methodology. Rather than include the entire season in the data below, I’m looking back only eight weeks. This gives enough of a sample that we can (mostly) avoid the biggest negative impacts of the randomness of the NFL schedule. At the same time, it enables us to properly account for various changes that teams have made since the beginning of the season, either in personnel or philosophy.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
- The Panthers enter their second game under interim head coach Chris Tabor and get what could be an even more winnable game. They weren’t able to win last week against a very beatable Tampa Bay defense. The Saints’ pass defense isn’t any easier than the Bucs’, but unlike (supposedly) Tampa Bay, New Orleans doesn’t stop the run that well.
- The Saints’ pass rush is ranked No. 8 in generating pressure. Yet their passing defensive metrics have slipped from their early season pace. Whereas early in the year they had one of the best pass defenses in the league, over the last eight weeks they rank No. 21 in passing EPA allowed per attempt, No. 20 in passing success rate allowed, and No. 30 in passing boom rate allowed.
- This is the sort of matchup opposing quarterbacks could take advantage of, but Bryce Young leads a passing offense that is dead last in passing success rate and passing boom rate.
- The good news is that New Orleans hasn’t been able to stop running backs either, and we saw what Chuba Hubbard was able to do against what appeared to be a tough Bucs’ run defense.
- New Orleans gives up a higher rushing boom rate than all but one team. They allow more yards before contact per attempt than all but two teams. The running game, meanwhile, is the only part of Carolina’s offense that’s been remotely functional, ranking 11th in rushing success rate.
- Against most teams, the Panthers wouldn’t be able to simply rely on Hubbard and their running game to get the job done. Against an ailing Saints’ offense, however, things might be different. The team is already without Michael Thomas. Derek Carr, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Taysom Hill are all listed as questionable.
- This Saints’ passing offense was a mediocre unit when healthy. Given all the injuries it may be difficult for them to play up even to their No. 19 rankings in passing success rate and passing boom rate.
- The Panthers don’t have a particularly strong passing defense, but they do limit fantasy efficiency better than the average team.
- Like Carolina, New Orleans might decide to rely on their running game. Only one team averages more rushing EP per game, and the Saints also rank 9th in rushing success rate.
- That said, limiting opponent rushing success is the one thing the Panthers’ run defense does relatively well. They are No. 10 in success rate allowed. Although they are dead last in evasion rate allowed, they make up for it with a No. 4 ranking in yards before contact allowed.
- Ultimately this could end up being a game with a lot of rushing attempts and few points.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
- No team has been more exploitable through the air over the last eight weeks than the Lions. They are No. 32 in both passing success rate allowed and passing boom rate allowed. They are No. 31 in passing game FPOE allowed.
- Yet there are real questions about whether Chicago can take advantage of this matchup. They are 29th in passing EPA per attempt. Their offensive line ranks just 30th in pressure rate allowed, and could have trouble against Aiden Hutchinson and Detroit’s No. 4 pass rush. No quarterback with at least 200 pass attempts has a higher sack rate than Justin Fields’ 10.5%.
- If the Bears aren’t able to operate an effective passing offense due to the mismatch on the line, they might try to get their rushing offense going early. Unfortunately, Detroit is much stronger against the run. They are No. 11 in evasion rate allowed, EPA allowed per carry, and rushing boom rate. They are No. 7 in rushing FPOE allowed, and No. 3 in yards after contact allowed.
- The other problem is that Detroit has a passing offense that ranks No. 5 in passing success rate, and is above average in every other advanced passing metric. Chicago’s pass defense is just No. 19 in passing success rate allowed. They don’t generate much pressure, and shouldn’t give the Lions’ No. 5 offensive line many issues.
- Chicago does play tight coverage against WRs, but the Passing Matchup Rater still likes Detroit’s receivers chances
- While Sam LaPorta doesn’t have the easiest matchup here, he simply can’t be benched. With the strength of the Lions’ passing game, LaPorta could easily find the end zone.
- This becomes increasingly the case as Detroit may have to abandon the run game. Few teams have funneled teams toward the air as effectively over the last eight weeks as the Bears. They are a top-three unit in yards before contact allowed, EPA allowed per carry, rushing success rate allowed, and rushing boom rate allowed. They are No. 4 in rushing FPOE allowed and No. 6 in yards after contact allowed.
- This sets up as a Jahmyr Gibbs game more than it does a David Montgomery game. Whether that in fact means Detroit involves Gibbs in the passing game is another matter. He was targeted only twice in last week’s game against New Orleans. That was a stark departure from his previous games — he averaged 10.3 receiving EP per game from Week 7 to Week 12. Based on the matchup, there’s a good chance he returns to that level against Chicago.
