Jahmyr Gibbs Isn’t Going Away: The Wrong Read, Week 10 – Part 2
Image Credit: Steven King/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Jahmyr Gibbs.

The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.

Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools — mainly the Advanced Team Stat Explorer — to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.

Don’t miss coverage of the early games in Part 1.

Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Chargers

David Montgomery has been a full participant all week and is set to make his return after missing two games with a rib injury. Yet there are legitimate questions as to whether he will return to the role he had previously occupied. Montgomery had been consistently leading the team’s RBs in opportunity share prior to his injury.

Detroit Lions RB Opportunity Share by Week

Since then, however, Jahmyr Gibbs has strengthened his case to be the team’s lead back. He’s produced back-to-back games of nearly 30 PPR points, including one against a tough Baltimore defense.

No RB has scored more points per game than Gibbs over the last three weeks. He’s the RB4 in total points over that time frame despite playing only two games. (Detroit was on a bye last week.)

The point is that it’s not going to be so easy for Montgomery to relegate Gibbs to a backup role after the rookie has justified his real-world draft capital. What’s most likely is we see Montgomery handle some carries between the 20s, as well as some of the short-yardage and goal-line work, but to generally be the second option in the backfield. Gibbs is already the high-value touch leader in the backfield, while Montgomery’s TRAP profile is not ideal for fantasy. I’d expect this gap to widen going forward.

This is especially likely to be true against a Chargers defense that is generally strong against the run but still presents a positive matchup for opposing RBs.

While Los Angeles is No. 8 in rushing EPA allowed and No. 9 in rushing FPOE allowed, they are No. 24 in passing EPA allowed and No. 22 in total passing game FPOE allowed. Indeed, over the last five games they’ve been able to limit RB rushing production but have been torched by receiving backs.

Gibbs should be in for a big day, but the Chargers could have an equally difficult time stopping Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta.

Detroit presents a slightly more difficult matchup for L.A.’s passing attack. They rank No. 10 in passing EPA allowed and No. 9 in FPOE allowed. Their pass rush generates pressure on over 38% of opponent dropbacks. Yet because Detroit has a high-powered offense that’s capable of scoring quickly — and because the Chargers are not that good at running the ball — Los Angeles will still test the Lions’ pass defense. It won’t be the easiest matchup, but Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen are going to be the centerpieces of the Chargers’ game plan nonetheless.

Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Please subscribe For Full Access to all RotoViz content and tools!

 

What’s included in your subscription??

  • Exclusive Access to RotoViz Study Hall
    • A treasure trove of our most insightful articles that will teach you the metrics that matter, time-tested winning strategies, the approaches that will give you an edge, and teach you how to be an effective fantasy manager.
  • Revolutionary Tools
    • Including the NFL Stat Explorer, Weekly GLSP Projections, NCAA Prospect Box Score Scout, Combine Explorer, Range of Outcomes App, DFS Lineup Optimizer, Best Ball Suite,and many, many, more.
  • Groundbreaking Articles
    • RotoViz is home of the original Zero-RB article and continues to push fantasy gamers forward as the go-to destination for evidence-based analysis and strategic advantages.
  • Weekly Projections
    • Built using RotoViz’s unique GLSP approach.
  • Expert Rankings
  • And a whole lot more…

Blair Andrews

Managing Editor, Author of The Wrong Read, Occasional Fantasy Football League Winner. All opinions are someone else's.

Are We About to Get an Epic Performance from Jahmyr Gibbs? The Wrong Read, Week 12

Welcome to The Wrong Read. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to try to understand how an upcoming matchup might play out in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be when trying to pass? How much will they be able to run the ball? It’s impossible to…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Can Cleveland Throw in the Weather? The Wrong Read, Week 12 – Thursday Night Preview

Welcome to The Wrong Read. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to try to understand how an upcoming matchup might play out in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be when trying to pass? How much will they be able to run the ball? It’s impossible to…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Shane Waldron Wasn’t the Only Problem in Chicago, But Can a New Playcaller Unlock Caleb Williams? The Wrong Read, Week 11

Welcome to The Wrong Read. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to try to understand how an upcoming matchup might play out in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be when trying to pass? How much will they be able to run the ball? It’s impossible to…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Are We About to Get an Epic Performance from Jahmyr Gibbs? The Wrong Read, Week 12

Welcome to The Wrong Read. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to try to understand how an upcoming matchup might play out in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be when trying to pass? How much will they be able to run the ball? It’s impossible to…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Can Cleveland Throw in the Weather? The Wrong Read, Week 12 – Thursday Night Preview

Welcome to The Wrong Read. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to try to understand how an upcoming matchup might play out in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be when trying to pass? How much will they be able to run the ball? It’s impossible to…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Shane Waldron Wasn’t the Only Problem in Chicago, But Can a New Playcaller Unlock Caleb Williams? The Wrong Read, Week 11

Welcome to The Wrong Read. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to try to understand how an upcoming matchup might play out in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be when trying to pass? How much will they be able to run the ball? It’s impossible to…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

The Blitz

Connect
Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

Data provided by

© 2021 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.

Welcome Back to RotoViz...

– IF YOU HAVE ISSUES LOGGING IN PLEASE CONTACT ROTOVIZMAIN@GMAIL.COM

– PLEASE NOTE THAT ROTOVIZ USES WORDPRESS FOR ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT. IF RESETTING YOUR PASSWORD YOU MAY BE FOWARDED TO A WORDPRESS PAGE.