The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.
Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools — mainly the Advanced Team Stat Explorer — to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (in Germany)
Josh Downs did not practice on Thursday due to a knee injury and is questionable for Sunday morning’s game. If Downs can’t play, expect Gardner Minshew to target Michael Pittman heavily. The Patriots are No. 27 in EPA per pass attempt allowed, but have one of the top rushing defenses in the league. If Indianapolis is going to move the ball, it will likely be through the air. Jonathan Taylor relegated Zack Moss to a pure backup role in Week 9 — Taylor played 45 offensive snaps to Moss’ 13 — but he could have a difficult time scoring fantasy points on the ground against New England. Only three teams have a more difficult RB matchup.
The Patriots’ already thin WR corps will be even thinner in Week 10. They have already sent Kendrick Bourne to IR. On Sunday they will also be without Devante Parker, who remains in the concussion protocol. Demario Douglas is New England’s de facto No. 1 receiver, but is himself questionable after being limited in practice because of an ankle injury.
In any event, the Colts present a difficult challenge for opposing passing attacks. They are a top-eight team in both passing success rate allowed and passing boom rate allowed. Meanwhile the Patriots are No. 27 in passing success rate and No. 28 in both passing EPA and passing boom rate.
It’s generally much easier to sustain drives against Indianapolis on the ground, but that hasn’t been New England’s strength so far this year. No team ranks lower in rushing boom rate, and only one team has a lower evasion rate. However, Rhamondre Stevenson is coming off his best game of the year. He recorded an evaded tackle on 33% of his carries in Week 9 and averaged 8.6 yards after contact per attempt en route to 10.5 rushing FPOE. Indianapolis gives Stevenson a chance to replicate this performance, and his schedule only gets easier from here.
Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Packers come into this game with a 3-5 record despite a positive point differential, while the Steelers are 5-3 despite a negative point differential. Pittsburgh is favored by three points at home, but enters with a number of defensive injuries. Both Cameron Hayward and Minkah Fitzpatrick have been held out of practice this week and are questionable heading into Sunday. This could have an impact on what has been a fairly strong defensive unit thus far, at least against the pass. The Steelers are No. 7 in pressure rate and No. 9 in EPA per attempt allowed. Of course, all but one member of Green Bay’s starting offensive line — which is No. 2 in pressure rate allowed — is also listed as questionable.
The Steelers are much weaker against the run, allowing more than 3.0 yards after contact per carry. Aaron Jones was limited in practice with a hamstring injury, but that was the case last week as well, and it didn’t keep him out of the game. Jones is coming off his second RB1 week of the season, but has not had positive FPOE in a game since Week 1. He put up a good fantasy score last week by controlling 26 total opportunities — easily the most he’s seen all season. Against Pittsburgh’s below-average run defense, he could be in for another high-touch game.
Green Bay is a difficult team to pass against. They are inside the top 10 in FPOE allowed and average WR separation, and they tend to funnel teams toward the running game. This is because only three teams are worse at allowing carries to turn into big rushing plays. The Steelers aren’t particularly strong in most aspects of the running game, but they do sport the No. 3 evasion rate in the league. Those evaded tackles are much more likely to occur when Jaylen Warren has the ball.
Warren is the only Pittsburgh RB with positive FPOE. Despite the gap in rushing attempts, he’s not far behind Najee Harris in terms of total expected points, thanks to his larger role in the passing game.
