Welcome to Going Deep! This weekly article will make use of charting data, advanced metrics, and other RotoViz tools — specifically the newly released Passing Game Matchup Rater — to help readers better understand the challenges facing wide receivers and tight ends in the coming week. As my process makes heavy use of the Matchup Rater, I’d highly recommend that you set aside half an hour to watch the tutorial/walkthrough and take a spin through the tool.
Please note that we only touch upon players with 6.0 or more PPG in this article.
MATCHUPS
Panthers at Bears
The Bears’ defense presents Bryce Young and the Panthers’ offense with a nice opportunity to get their passing attack on track. Opposing wide receivers are approximating their seasonal points per game (PPG) when facing the defense and the team is allowing WRs to score points from both the slot and out wide. As a result, all of Carolina’s WRs draw favorable matchups in this game.
Adam Thielen, the overall WR9, is drawing 9.5 targets per game and with a matchup rating of 70, owns one of the best matchups of the week.
The Panthers are allowing WRs to manage 105% of PPG despite being one of the stingiest teams in the league to the slot. Only two teams are allowing more points to be scored from the alignment per game and Carolina is allowing 0.3 points per target (PPT) less than the league average. This is more notable in the case of Darnell Mooney than D.J. Moore as Mooney operates from the slot on 78% of passing plays. Moore lines up out wide on approximately 70% of plays.
C.J. Henderson and Donte Jackson will alternate coverage on Moore. Combined, the duo allows 14.3 PPG on direct targets. This makes them a fairly competitive matchup. Moore should be able to approximate PPG in the majority of outcomes, but this could be a tough one for Mooney.
Cole Kmet draws a low matchup rating as he frequents the slot. That said, he’s been on fire the last two weeks and is seeing his target volume grow. Despite the notable matchup, Kmet profiles as a TE1 this week.
