The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.
Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools — mainly the Advanced Team Stat Explorer — to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
The Patriots have a reputation for fielding a strong defense, and in many respects, this reputation is deserved. They do indeed have one of the best rushing defenses in the league.
No team allows a lower evasion rate, and only one team is better in EPA allowed or success rate allowed on rushing attempts. The Bills are a strong rushing team, but face a tough test against New England. However, there are good reasons to think Josh Allen and his receivers can beat the Patriots through the air.
The Bills are a top-four team in total passing game FPOE, EPA per pass attempt, passing success rate, and passing boom rate. Meanwhile, the Patriots generate pressure on less than 29% of opposing dropbacks — good for No. 31 in the league. They rank just 28th in boom rate allowed and 25th in EPA per pass attempt allowed. That said, the Strength of Schedule Streaming app indicates that only the Colts’ receivers face a more difficult matchup than Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.
The SOS Streaming tool is more optimistic about New England’s receivers, and in at least one way the advanced team stats agree.
Only five teams allow more average WR separation than the Bills. Buffalo also ranks No. 24 in both success rate and boom rate allowed. On the other hand, they create pressure against opposing QBs on more than 44% of dropbacks faced, and are a top-10 team in both FPOE allowed and EPA allowed. The Patriots’ best chance for success against Buffalo may not be to test their pass defense.
Instead, the best strategy for New England to beat Buffalo may be to limit their scoring chances by limiting their total play volume, and this may be possible by relying on their running game. Although the Patriots have been one of the worst rushing teams, the Bills have been one of the worst at defending the run.
No team allows more yards after contact or a higher evasion rate. Only four allow more FPOE or a higher boom rate. Last week, Rhamondre Stevenson showed some flashes of the upside we were drafting him for, and his Week 7 matchup presents an opportunity to deliver on that upside in a big way.
Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts
Gardner Minshew is perhaps the most talented backup QB who will play in Week 7, but it’s possible that no amount of talent can overcome Cleveland’s stifling defense.
We speculated last week that the Browns might hand San Francisco their first loss, and if anything the advanced team stats look even better for Cleveland after defeating one of the last undefeated teams in Week 6. They are the top team in EPA per pass attempt allowed and passing success rate allowed. They are also No. 2 in boom rate allowed and No. 3 in pressure rate. Indianapolis hasn’t been the strongest passing team so far in 2023, and nothing about this matchup suggests they will turn things around this week.
Of course, running against Cleveland is almost as difficult.
The Browns are also No. 1 in rushing success rate allowed, as well as in yards before contact allowed. However, they are susceptible against runners who can evade tackles and pick up yards after contact. In 2023, both Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss are averaging an evasion rate above 20%, and both are averaging at least 2.4 yards after contact.
The Browns are certainly not an easy rushing matchup, but Indianapolis could gain some chunk yardage on a few plays, which may be enough against a Cleveland offense that has been fairly dysfunctional and could be without Deshaun Watson again. Watson practiced in full but is still listed as questionable. If Watson can play, he will hope to elevate a Cleveland passing game that is the worst in the league at gaining EPA.
They are also No. 30 in total FPOE and No. 29 in passing success rate. The good news is the Colts leave something to be desired when it comes to pass defense. They are at least a little better at defending the run.
The Browns are effective in some advanced rushing metrics, but the peripherals haven’t translated into on-field success. Much the same could be said for Indianapolis’ defense. Jerome Ford has been efficient in the passing game, but is performing slightly below expectation as a runner. Facing the Colts, who rank No. 29 in rushing FPOE allowed, could provide the boost he needs.
