The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.
Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.
Because we are early in the season, the numbers you will see below are still balanced between late-season 2022 and early-season 2023. As we get deeper into 2023, the 2022 numbers will drop out.
New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots
The Patriots have only one way to attack teams: through the air. They rank dead last in evasion rate, and only one team is worse in rushing boom rate.
Unfortunately, the Saints are one of the least attackable teams through the air.
They are No. 1 in WR separation and No. 2 in both EPA per attempt and success rate allowed. None of these are areas in which New England is particularly strong. They are in the bottom third of the league in separation, EPA, success rate, and boom rate.
While it would be preferable if New England could beat New Orleans on the ground, Rhamondre Stevenson and Co. have not yet been able to make anything of their opportunities. Now the starter is limited with a thigh injury, but Week 5 still could be a good week for New England’s rushing offense to right the ship. Stevenson has yet to score more than 15 PPR points, but New Orleans represents the easiest matchup he’s faced yet this year.
The Patriots rank No. 4 in the league in dropbacks per game. If their running game isn’t working again, expect Mac Jones to be dropping back often in this one as well. He’ll have time to throw, although it’s important to realize that the main defensive factor influencing this metric is the effectiveness of coverage. Time to throw increases when nobody is open. The Saints’ underwhelming pass rush also has an impact. But New Orleans’ strength on defense is their secondary. No team allows less average WR separation, and only one team allows a lower success rate or less EPA per pass attempt.
New Orleans should arguably be even more eager to attack through the air than the Patriots are. New England is a bottom-10 team in pressure rate, EPA allowed, and success rate allowed.
The Saints’ passing game doesn’t look particularly good, but they’ve been without Alvin Kamara for many of the games in the dataset’s range. While Kamara wasn’t very efficient in his 2023 debut, he did earn 13 targets, suggesting this offense will look quite a bit different with Kamara active. Some uncertainty surrounds the health of Derek Carr, which could impact the effectiveness of New Orleans’ aerial attack. The problem is that the Patriots are strong against the run.
They rank No. 1 in evasion rate allowed, No. 3 in yards after contact allowed, and No. 4 in success rate allowed. Even with Kamara back and with a game under his belt, the Saints will have difficulty moving the ball on the ground.
