The Player: There’s a design at work in all art surely you know that? Events must play themselves out to an aesthetic, moral and logical conclusion.
Guildenstern: And what’s that in this case?
The Player: It never varies. We aim for the point where everyone who is marked for death dies.
–Tom Stoppard, Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead

Bengals, Steelers, Patriots, and Bears fans may feel like the 2023 season has already reached its logical conclusion, and that’s before we even get into the aesthetics. Is your team marked for death or will you find a fantasy savior? Let’s take a stroll through the Week 4 landscape.

THE ROTOVIZ IN-SEASON CONTENT

As a teaser for what you have ahead in Week 5, here’s a look back at our most recent content.

Win the Waiver Wire – Bjorn Yang-Vaernet
A Horse and an Arrow – Shawn Siegele
5 Things That Mattered (and 5 That Didn’t) – Mat Irby
K-Means Clustering for DFS Insights – Matt Spencer
The Dynasty Command Center – Curtis Patrick
The Zero RB Dynasty Watch – David Phillippi
Best Ball Mania IV Advance Rate Model – Jake Boes
Streaming Defense – Ross Durham
The Buy Low Report: Advanced WR Metrics – Ryan Ramsarran
The Passing Game Matchup Report: WR/CB Battles – Dave Caban
NFL Pace Report: Shootout Options – Mat Irby
Zero RB Universe – Shawn Siegele
Wrong Read: Every Key Matchup Note from the Advance Team Stat Explorer – Blair Andrews
How to Think About Small-Field DFS Tournaments (DK) – Michael Hitchcock
Beating the Week 2 FanDuel DFS Slate – Justin Herrera
The NFL Weather Report – Mat Irby

The RotoViz Radio network also brings you a wide range of content each week. In today’s article, I’ll be looking at Sunday’s key storylines  through the lens of our newest episodes.

Are the Bengals Done?

The Bengals have been a disappointing first-month team throughout Joe Burrow’s tenure, but this season is still significantly different. In 2022, Cincinnati got off to a 2-3 start, demonstrating evidence of a Super Bowl hangover, but even in that disastrous stretch . . .

• Burrow averaged 263 passing yards a game.
• He threw at least one touchdown in every contest.
• The Bengals scored no fewer than 17 points.

In the first four games of 2023, Burrow hasn’t hit that average in a single game. He’s failed to throw a TD in three of four starts, and the Bengals have been held to three points on two different occasions.

It’s especially striking, because as Blair described in the Wrong Read, this was the get-well matchup they’d been looking for.

Three games in 2023 are enough to cast doubt on the capability of the Bengals’ passing attack.

Only four teams are creating less separation for their WRs, and only three are less efficient when throwing the ball. If there’s a silver lining here, it’s that playing against the Titans can solve a lot of problems in the passing game. The Titans allow their opponents to earn positive EPA on over 55% of their attempts — only one team is worse. They give up big plays on more than 28% of opponents’ pass attempts — only two teams are worse. While the Bengals WRs struggle to get open, the Titans’ cornerbacks also struggle to cover WRs. In the current season, Tennessee is allowing 300 yards per game and 7.4 yards per coverage snap.

Although this may end up being the softest AFC North in recent memory, I argue that Cincinnati has problems beyond Burrow’s calf injury. You can see above that the Bengals are one of the quickest teams in time-to-throw, but that also results in Burrow having to make decisions so early that a) his elite trio of receivers don’t have time to get open, and b) the throw depth doesn’t take advantage of their vertical abilities.

Against a Titans defense that is one of the worst in terms of allowing both receiver separation and boom rate, Burrow’s aDOT of 4.6 represented complete capitulation.

It gets worse from there. Tee Higgins suffered a rib injury that could have him out for a while, and it continues a trend of Higgins leaving early after he was forced from action with a low snap count three different times in 2022.

• Ben and I also touch on the way Tennessee toyed with Cincinnati’s defense, including a completely telegraphed touchdown pass thrown by Derrick Henry. The Titans rushing star got back on track in this game as well, and his understudy, Tyjae Spears, continued to look electric as both a runner and receiver.

The Bills Have Continued to Evolve on Offense. Are They Now an Unstoppable Juggernaut?

The Monday Review tool reminds us that six receivers had at least scored a TD while compiling at least 100 receiving or air yards. A.J. Brown and Stefon Diggs led the way (in both cases bolstered by poor tackling on their long scores).

After getting humiliated at home in the 2022 playoffs and then blowing what should have been an easy victory against an Aaron Rodgers-less Jets squad in Week 1, the Bills have come roaring back. Given the relative strength of the squads in question, Buffalo’s 48-20 victory delivers a bigger statement game than the Dolphins’ 70-point eruption a week ago.

If you want to get a sense of just how good Diggs can be, this was the fourth three-TD game of his career and his ninth multi-score performance.

How should you look at a superstar who’s off to a slow start? I still remember the early days of 2019 when Diggs, then the poster child for our approach to both prospect evaluation and redraft tactics, was off to a slow start. He averaged 9.5 PPR over the first five weeks of that season, and I received a nasty email from a disgruntled subscriber suggesting we’d probably never mention Diggs again. You never know the future, but in this case it definitely didn’t turn out that way.

• If you’re starting the Tua Tagovailoa/Jaylen Waddle combo, it was an absolute dagger when their second-half TD got wiped out by an ineligible-man-down-field penalty.
• De’Von Achane continues to impress, this time going over 100 rushing yards (with two scores) on only eight carries. The comparisons to Chris Johnson become more apt by the week. CJ2K went over 100 yards from scrimmage in each of his first two games as a pro (while the nominal backup to LenDale White) and found paydirt twice in Week 4. He went on to three more games with at least 150 scrimmage yards and a score. If you’ve been reading Jake Boes’ series on Best Ball Win Rate modeling, you can imagine what those types of spike weeks will do for your Achane squads. It won’t hurt his cause that Raheem Mostert fumbled twice, including one of the backbreaking variety.

It’s Not a Bad Time to Buy Justin Fields, as the Sellers Will Be Out in Droves

Justin Fields’ first three games reinforced the narrative that his passing inadequacies will keep him from ever solidifying himself as an NFL starter, but is that the case? And does it matter for fantasy? I like buying after the “up” performance that gives sellers more psychological comfort. (Prices after Week 4 will represent the best they’re likely to get.)

At one point on Sunday, Fields was 24 for 26 with one of those incompletions coming on a Hail Mary. His fumble-six eventually contributed to another loss, but Chicago coaches really blew this game with a weird fourth-down decision late. Instead of kicking a field goal to lead, or choosing either a power run or a play call that took advantage of Fields’ legs, they instead opted for a shotgun handoff to the undersized Khalil Herbert.

The Broncos represent one of the softest passing matchups in NFL history, but Fields was unleashing side-armed rockets into tight windows. That’s the definition of playing looser, and when you combine his heroics with a passing attack concentrated on the weapons — D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet both drew nine targets — Chicago has the recipe for an exciting (if futile) stretch of upcoming games.

• Moore’s TD was the result of a dynamic throw and acrobatic catch, but also the vagaries of the NFL replay system. He clearly got only a single foot down, and yet the decision-makers decided there wasn’t enough to overturn.
• Jaleel McLaughlin starred (7-72 on the ground with an additional highlight, catch-and-run TD reception), and the Javonte Williams hip injury, although reportedly minor, could give the rookie a chance to pull an Austin Ekeler. You don’t want to be Melvin Gordon in this scenario.
• Marvin Mims caught another 48-yard pass. Right now he’s the second-most exciting rookie WR after Puka Nacua. If Sean Payton wants to win more than four games this season, his routes will finally jump in Week 5.

The New CMC Looks Like a Post-Trade Faulk

For those of us who started following the NFL around the 2000 season (and I know many of you started much more recently than that), it’s easy to forget that Marshall Faulk was the best RB in football before his trade to the Rams. In fact, in his final season with the Colts, Faulk went off for 2,227 yards from scrimmage and 10 scores.

He then went over 2,100 yards from scrimmage in each of his first three campaigns in St. Louis, the final two of which also featured 20-plus TDs. Those were his age-26 through age-28 seasons, and they counted as the greatest stretch of fantasy production ever.

One of these seasons is not like the others . . . because it occurred after 2006.

It’s harder to imagine a flurry of epic campaigns in the modern NFL, but Christian McCaffrey’s borderline transcendent 2019 (2,392/19) could only be the appetizer. McCaffrey is now averaging 30 PPR in 2023, and the offense has evolved to make him the focal point. He’s no longer hemorrhaging carries (Jordan Mason earned three as the fill-in for Elijah Mitchell), and he led the team in targets (8).

Deebo Samuel probably wasn’t healthy in this one, but even with Brandon Aiyuk returning to a 6-148-0 line, the game plan featured McCaffrey as an unstoppable weapon in space. (Contrast Kyle Shanahan’s offense with the crippled New Orleans attack where Alvin Kamara gained only 33 yards on 13 receptions.) George Kittle has been the odd man out, and while he’ll have spike weeks of his own, it’s a 25 PPG role that’s been carved out by the incomparable McCaffrey.

With a month’s worth of results in the books, Ben and I discuss whether we’d prefer Justin Jefferson, McCaffrey, or perhaps Tyreek Hill.

Sam Howell Bounces Back

Sam Howell threw the game-tying TD to Jahan Dotson as time expired. Unfortunately, Coach Rivera failed to earn the moniker Riverboat Ron. Howell again threw an under-pressure strike on the pivotal third-down play in overtime, but Terry McLaurin’s second toe nudged the line by the smallest of margins.

Are the Commanders and Howell for real? Should Washington have gone for two? The guys break down one of the most thrilling games of the season’s first month and debate the brilliance of A.J. Brown’s long TD.

RotoViz Overtime

Puka Nacua Transitions Into Myth

Through the first three weeks, Nacua commanded a ridiculous 35% target share and generated 120 yards after the catch, but his 8.3 aDOT suggested some possession-only risk as the season developed. (In part, it’s hard to catch that many passes and maintain a hardy aDOT; some of them almost have to be underneath for that volume.)

In Week 4, he caught nine additional balls, had two more wiped out by penalty, and snagged the game-winning TD in overtime. Moreover, the Rams got him deep throughout, perhaps making the adjustment after Cincinnati limited him in Week 3. The 12.8 aDOT provides hope that he could flourish even once Cooper Kupp returns.

Not that you would have considered benching Nacua in any instance, but Blair’s breakdown helped foreshadow his big Week 4.

The Rams face an opponent that, despite league average peripherals, is allowing a successful passing play on nearly 50% of opponent attempts.

Only two teams give up more total FPOE in the passing game. In 2023, the Colts rank in the bottom third of the league in yards allowed per coverage snap, allowing 309 total yards to Houston Texans WRs in Week 2. Puka Nacua will have a good chance for his third WR1 finish in just four career games, as he faces the easiest matchup of his career so far.

Rapid Fire

• The Jaguars won 23-7 but Calvin Ridley and Travis Etienne both disappointed. Is Jacksonville going the wrong way on offense at a crucial moment in Trevor Lawrence’s development?
• Isiah Pacheco works harder for every step than any back in football, yet his 158-yard, one-score performance counts as a true breakout on the path to an RB1 season. Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ starting WRs combined for three catches and 28 receiving yards. How long do we have to wait for Rashee Rice and Justyn Ross?
• Zach Wilson finally looked like a starting caliber NFL quarterback, but his key fumble cost New York their shot at a second shocking upset. Garrett Wilson failed to make the highlight TD grab, and Breece Hall broke the wrong way on his truncated 43-yard scamper. The Jets cost themselves the game with a 6/5 carry split between Hall and Dalvin Cook. They’ve got to give him the Bijan Robinson treatment before it’s too late.
• C.J. Stroud looked sensational again, and Anthony Richardson rallied from an atrocious first half to lead Indianapolis within a hair’s breadth of victory. How should we be thinking about the rookie signal callers after a dynamic Week 4?

Good luck to everyone this evening. We could get anything from a shootout to a dispiriting slugfest. If Jaxon Smith-Njigba finally buttresses his veteran counterparts and Kenneth Walker continues in the style that’s given him a league-leading 30% evasion rate, well, the Seahawks should do their part. No team has looked more befuddled on offense this season, but more snaps for Jalin Hyatt and Wan’Dale Robinson could be the solution to Daniel Jones’ woes. May you get all the points you need for victory tonight.

Don’t miss Blair Andrews and Hasan Rahim talking Quentin Johnston and more with guest Sackreligious.